I think by all indications that it will be great. I bought the IBB etfs today for the event, since 10% of the holdings is BIIB. If BIIB takes off, I won't make as much, but I'm fine with it. But if BIIB sells off, I won't be hurt as much.
Let's hope for a nice pop.
Who really expected it to fall off a cliff?
It will drop in a nickle/dime way for the next week or two. I expect it to drop below $80 in that time.
But even a million shares dumped every now and then will put downward pressure on the shares. For example, there is an equilibrium today of buyers and sellers, so the shares didn't do much. The volume was around 17 million. If even 500K-1M shares are dumped in the market, (all thing being equal) the equilibrium will shift to the sell side, until a new equilibrium is reached.
I expect BABA to get nickeled and dimed downward for about a week.
It's about probability. BABA shares have been on a decline for nearly 4 months. Do you truly believe that tomorrow is "the day" that it will reverse the trend, especially in light of increased shares available? The past has shown that after significant lockup expiration, it takes 1 or 2 weeks before the shares of a company are absorbed and prices stabilize.
Personally, I don't think many large investors will unload at all. But enough will,...and that will move the equilibrium to the sell side for the next week or so.
It doesn't matter. Some will sell. That alone will shift the equilibrium towards a sell bias. I don't expect the selling pressure to last too long. disclosure: I bought April puts yesterday.
I would love it. But I think $2 - $3 on the downside might be it tomorrow, especially if the markets go higher after fed speak. Everytime Yellen speaks, the markets soar. Tho' I think BABA may drop below $80 within a week.
Many institutional investors won't sell. But there will be enough sellers to put downward pressure on the shares for a little while longer. I own April puts ahead of tomorrow...and am thinking about increasing my position before close.
It won't be all at once, but little by little. Still, since BABA trades 16M shares/day, increasing the selling by 1-2 million shares/day will cause BABA to drift downward until all the shares are absorbed. Heck, I expect many of the large institutional holders to not sell. But there will still be enough downward pressure from those that do sell. I think BABA will drift below $80 in the first two weeks after lockup. After that, I don't know.
The upgrade is nothing more than an attempt to keep the stock up, in light of the lockup expiration, nothing more.
Do you really think analysts are objective? They have an agenda because they're people, nothing more. Many are trying to counter the effects of increased shares tomorrow...perhaps for their company's clients? Perhaps for themselves? Perhaps both? Everyone is trying their best to manipulate stock.
I look at it differently. The current price is based on current supply. There is no true bottom or top. Shares are priced at where supply and demand intercept...at any give time.
On Wed...when the lockup ends, 400+million shares will be free to trade. BUT I don't expect ALL the shares to be dumped at once. In fact, I only expect a smaller amount dumped over the course of a few days/weeks. But with a stock that trades only 16M shares/day, that should put pressure on the shares to go lower in the first week after expiration. In other words, even if the lockup expiration results in a few million shares being dumped daily for a week, it is still relatively large when only 16M shares trade every day.
So yes, I expect BABA to drift downward. Probably below $80.
Today, I bought April puts but i expect to dump them before the week is out.
BTW I bought April puts. Logic dictates that if there are more shares available, it should take a little time to absorb them. In the meantime, there will be very near-term downward pressure.
I think there will be sellers, but not as many as there would have been if BABA was still trading near $100. Nevertheless, I agree that now is not the time to buy. And may be a good time to buy short term puts or shorting.
Yes, you could very well be right. It makes sense. Nevertheless, I bought calls today with the goal of selling them before the actual announcement. Possible a day earlier. I should be able to make a profit from the increase in IV and possible share price increase leading up to the event.
I admit it's cheesy when they have to resort to tweeting. BUT, what's been done is done.
In light of the tweet, I bought some long term calls. As a speculator, I can't ignore the potential news on Thursday.
Folks, it doesn't matter if there was deconstructive testing. The fact is the products failed the test. It looks bad.
Think human nature. When I buy a can of chicken noodle soup, I don't want a dented can, even if I'm not going to eat the can. LL's products are flawed, even if the test was not for the intended use.
There are always other choices. In the near term, the company will take a hit. The stock will drop to $25.
But a year from now, the stock and company should be waaay above today's levels. People have short term memories.
I currently hold April puts that are nicely in the money. After next months earnings, I will probably look to going long.
Good luck all
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I don't know if Ackman did or did not do anything illegal. That will be up to the courts. He may be completely innocent. BUT, I have no doubt that he will be subpoenaed too. Its all part of information gathering.
The thing is....WHEN Ackman gets a subpoena, and he will, the markets will take HLF higher. It's just how human nature works. The media will milk it for all its worth.
I bought calls yesterday because I think the investigation of Herbalife is nearing an end...and the company will be pretty much left alone. There may be instructions to correct minor issues. Maybe a small fine? Nothing more.
I agree. There are two things I did today: Bought HLF calls and LL puts.
I think the feds are getting close to ending their investigation of Herbalife, and will be turning their attention to Ackman. It's a matter of time before he's subpeonaed. It won't mean he's guilty, but the act alone will pop HLF som more.