do you see any value in this shiet now ?
G oldman what's your retake for tomorrow ?
Capes might go up 500 point tomorrow
I am kind of disappointed with drys sp action today
Depending on how strong bdi numbers we will h ave
Dry FFA: From our man Martin at FIS “Levels have pushed up hard, led by Capes on good volume. The Cape 4tc posted +1890 to 12,793/day and bids have been active from the start reaching 26250 on the Q4 but now seeing slightly better offers. Traders are expecting Pmx/Smx to be moderately higher while Smx may be slightly firmer. Sep is trading up 11% on Capes, 5% stronger on Pmx, 3% higher on Smx, and flat on Handy.”
AuthorDavid Chinski | CommentPost a Comment
Actually kem is looking for 2.71
Losers sold at the bottom
the Tokyo-based company’s total fleet capacity because it also has ships hauling cargoes including oil and manufactured goods.
“The market is going to be 200 ships shorter this year than last,” said Mavrinac of Jefferies. “Given that, rates should strengthen pretty nicely.”
Do you have license for it too?
The second quarter took the dry bulk industry by surprise. It did not live up to expectations forecast by most analysts following the sector. Capesize vessels earned on average $11,900 per day compared to $16.300 per day the previous quarter, but still almost twice as much as the same quarter in 2013. Positive expectations were also reflected in the forward freight market (FFA) which priced the second quarter at $20,000 per day the last trading days of the previous quarter. Chinese steel production has grown by approximately six percent in the first half of 2014 from the previous six month period, which was in line or even above the consensus forecast. Analysts have also been right in their fleet growth assumptions, so the relatively disappointing fleet utilization has to be explained by other reasons.
Continued weak Chinese coal and bauxite import has meant a plentiful supply of Panamaxes to put pressure on Capesize through ratios in the coal trade. Coal demand from China has been considerably lower than anticipated due to more available hydro power and increased use of natural gas. Chinese imports and production of thermal coal each declined by one percent in the first half of 2014 compared to the first half of 2013. In addition, the ban on exports put in place by the Indonesian Government for nickel ore and bauxite, and a relatively moderate South American grain season did not support the smaller segments which again have a negative impact on Capesizes. China has been drawing down on bauxite and nickel ore inventories for the last six months and unless the ban is lifted sourcing has to take place from longer distances.
Iron ore which is the main demand driver for the Capesize segment has lived up to its expectations. China alone imported 457 million mt in the first half of the year, representing an increase of 19 percent year on year. The three major suppliers in Australia (Rio Tinto, BHP and FMG) have pushed forward their expansion plans an