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n0m0renancy 235 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 3, 2014 12:23 PM Member since: Jun 15, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Tesla is off to INDIA? Awesome!!

    by keefwotgetsaround Jul 3, 2014 7:12 AM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 3, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    "I expect to see their profits double"

    GAAP or Non-GAAP?

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 2, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    Norwegian cars are shipped directly there. The Tilburg ruse is to reduce EU tariffs.

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 2, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    "I've met exactly one "welfare mom" in my life."
    Perhaps you should spend more time volunteering to assist the less fortunate. Your existence here has a purpose (and it's not to see how often you can go diving.)

  • Reply to

    I woke up this morning and went into the garage.

    by tslamaniac Jul 1, 2014 12:04 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 1, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    What Ms. Jarvis-Shean claims is "planned" and what is practical are light years different, Go back and read Simon Moores' piece on "Tesla Motor’s Gigafactory: Quantifying demand for graphite, lithium and cobalt"

    Ms Jarvis-Shean"s statement about the source of graphite expresses Tesla's preference, not fact . I've read the Panasonic battery supply agreement and amendment which have been attached as exhibits to the SEC filings. While heavily redacted (for the commercial terms), there is NO restriction on Panasonic regarding sourcing or disclosure of raw materials.

    Tesla's SEC filing admits: "Tesla has not yet been able to fully identify countries of origin of the necessary conflict minerals and smelters and refiners used to process the necessary conflict minerals in Tesla’s products. Our inability to determine the conflict status of our products is due to the difficulty in obtaining adequate responses to our reasonable country of origin inquiries with a number of our suppliers."

    BEVs are not saving our small blue planet. They are an alternate mode of propulsion for personal transportation, with pros and cons, just like every other mode and without any unequivocal advantage.

  • Reply to

    I woke up this morning and went into the garage.

    by tslamaniac Jul 1, 2014 12:04 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 1, 2014 6:13 PM Flag

    It's not Russia nor Venezuela that are truly evil: it's the nefarious schemers north of our border who would transport their foul hydrocarbons extracted from tar sands through a porous pipeline across pristine underground aquifers that we must stop!

    Musk is far too principled to use synthetic graphite; after all, it is a by-product from refining evil hydrocarbons. Besides that, it's expensive compared to flake graphite--everyone knows Tesla's cell cost is a small fraction of other automakers. Post your authoritative source/quote. The reality is Tesla buys batteries from Panasonic; Panasonic acquires the elements for anodes and cathodes through Japanese trading houses; the Japanese trading houses use intermediaries in Africa, China, and islands in the Pacific. No one really knows or cares as long as we can all say together "zero tailpipe emissions!"

  • Reply to

    I woke up this morning and went into the garage.

    by tslamaniac Jul 1, 2014 12:04 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 1, 2014 5:04 PM Flag

    "You really don't seem to grasp the overall concept of what Musk is trying to do"

    The acronym for it is NIMBY. Where is all that cobalt for the giga factory being sourced? The Republic of Congo? How about the nickel? New Caledonia? Papua New Guinea? How about the graphite? Who cares--those people have darker skin, and Tesla can't say one way or the other if it is complying with conflict mineral standards. It's called plausible deniability, and it gives the hypocritical elitists a pretext for expunging their guilt.

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 1, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    "... will always find a new way to suggest Elon is lying" I am a chronic critic of Musk but have never alleged that he is always lying. Like many megalomaniacs, he seems to believe that whatever he wants to be real is, in fact, is reality. That's not life. Musk's pronouncements warrant objective checking.

    "Elon's naive belief" -"-When in Rome", ie cultural differences, are beyond the grasp of many arrogant disrupters. In addition to the phenomenon you mentioned, Musk may find out the alleged "gouging" also allows for discounts from the asking price that many Chinese luxury vehicle buyers have come to expect.

    I worked for a regulated utility when Enron-promoted de-regulation was becoming the craze. (The General Counsel was fond of saying: "We have only three 'customers' to convince-[-the three PUC commissioners.])

    A high priced consultant (McKinsey &Co,) convinced the new CEO that, by forming a new parent and creating an unregulated sister company, there was a fortune to be made by buying up backwards electrical utilities in South America. Turns out the most highly compensated position in those backwards utilities was meter reader--they received remuneration not only from their employers, but from everyone who was connected in front of the meters--there was no one else "with eyes on the ground" to appreciate why it appeared those backwards utilities appeared to be so inefficient under USA metrics.

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 1, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    Is INSIDEEV making this stuff up?

    Quarter over quarter, sales in Norway are down almost 1,000 units, but InsideEVs projects Europe is only going to be down about 600 units for the quarter. Who are you going to believe? InsideEVs seems to be trying hard to rationalize a beat of Tesla 2nd quarter guidance.

    Look at the Google Drive spreadsheet on the TMC Model S Order & Delivery Tracker thread and click on the Q2 Vehicles tab. Does it look to you like June NA deliveries are going to be 65% to 80% higher than those for April or May?

    Some read this board for insights on how to trade. None of the impressions by posters here or by the electronic media about 2Q deliveries are anything other than speculation because of Tesla's policy of hiding the ball. However, those who ignore contrary conjecture because it conflicts with the yarn may be doing so at their peril.

  • 1,080 (536 in June) vs 1st quarter Norwegian sales of 2,057.

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 1, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    Inside EVs is inconsistent about what it is reporting--US or NA, More often, they say it's NA.

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 1, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    "Of course exact numbers won’t be known until Tesla reports in August, but we are confident in our own projections tracking North American sales for the 2nd quarter at around 4,250 (3,900 US/250 Canada) is accurate within a couple hundred units (historical accuracy has ranged from +/- 75 to 350 units as a matter of disclosure)."

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 1, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    I offered true information. Readers can decide what to do with it. The Roadster waivers were safety issues. All auto manufacturers, including Tesla, request and receive exceptions to various regulations

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 1, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    Musk feigned complete surprise in Oslo when the Norwegians complained about "soft paint." There are numerous threads on TMC about protective wraps. Remember all the hype about powdered coatings for the color layers? They are using a water based system--California's regulations on solvent based systems prescriptive.

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 1, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    :Tesla didn't ask for safety exemptions" ?

    "This document grants in full the petition of Tesla Motors Inc's. (Tesla) for an exemption of the Model S vehicle line in accordance with 49 CFR Part 543, Exemption from the Theft Prevention Standard."

    Tesla also received "hardship" waivers for the Roadster with respect to airbags and electronic stability control.

  • Reply to

    Chatter

    by jmcvicker Jun 29, 2014 1:24 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jun 30, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    "roughly $156M at the end of Q2"
    What was it for Q1 using similar assumptions? What doe you use for Chinese deposit amount/vehicle?

    Do you give any credence to claims that RHD deliveries in 2Q will be hand built and part of the reason for the July shutdown is to reprogram robots for RHD?

  • Reply to

    Chatter

    by jmcvicker Jun 29, 2014 1:24 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jun 29, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    How does Tesla recover the incremental expense of homologation let alone reprogramming all those Kukas if it is unlikely total sales of the RHD will ever exceed 1,000?

    With a day to go in the quarter, the increment during the quarter for self reported X reservations has been;
    Sigs:......................169
    Production........2,145
    China ....................837

    That's $38.5 million in free cash if Chinese reservations are $25k ($55.4 million if they are $45k)

    At 3/31/14, customer deposits were $198 million.

  • Reply to

    Chatter

    by jmcvicker Jun 29, 2014 1:24 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jun 29, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    Each of the ten tranches are for 52,749 shares with an exercise price of $31.17/share. The performance criteria for the 1st three tranches are:

    Successful completion of the Model X Engineering Prototype (Alpha);
    Successful completion of the Model X Vehicle Prototype (Beta);
    Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle

    The only time limit is 8/13/22.

  • Reply to

    Adam Jones of Morgan Stanley

    by prop_trader Jun 25, 2014 2:25 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jun 28, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    Jonas' share price targets are based on discounted projected earnings fifteen to twenty years away with most of the value based on astronomical numbers at the end of that period. No one is very good at predicting the future ten years away. Jonas' track record for predicting Tesla's net income just several years away has been dismal. In April 2011, Jonas predicted Tesla's near term net income as (in $ millions):

    2011......226 loss (actual 254 loss)
    2012 296 loss (actual 396 loss)
    2013 82 loss (actual 74 loss)
    2014 53 profit (actual 50 loss for 1st quarter)

    Jonas' prediction came close in 2013, but he missed completely the regulatory credit windfall (as did most everybody else). Without regulatory credits($130 million for ZEV and $65 million CAFE/GHG) the 2013 loss would have been $269 million.

    IMO, Musk's failure to disclose those material contracts to sell those credits is why Tesla exists today. The surprise enabled TSLA to float the 4th equity offering and 1st convertible note and use the proceeds to repay DOE.

  • Reply to

    Freight Ships - The New Teslaberg Warehouse

    by investorelvis Jun 28, 2014 11:15 AM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jun 28, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    "Why do they need to turn a profit now if investors are lining up to give them billions in new capital? (The last offering of convertible notes sold pretty quickly and was over-subscribed) "

    S&P's rating of 6 levels into the junk scale will be a significant factor the next time Tesla tries to raise capital. IMO, capital markets will insist on tangible progress with the GF AND the Gen III before participating in the next offering, which will likely be attempted around year end.

    What's preventing you from permanently parking, selling, or torching your Prius as modest, personal contribution to the revolution?

  • Reply to

    A3 Sportback E-Tron

    by pump_monkey Jun 27, 2014 8:12 AM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jun 27, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    They cancelled the 40 kwh version. It was a " hobbled horse" Gen III is rumored to be 48 kwh and 20% smaller,

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