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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

n0m0renancy 207 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 1, 2015 10:15 AM Member since: Jun 15, 2004
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  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Aug 1, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    "That's a brand new 2.75 Billion in revenue that Tesla is going to begin receiving within days! Just go think what that is going to do to the stock price and the Q3 and Q4 numbers with a MASSIVE 1/4th OF THE FLOAT SHORT."

    The revenue is recognized only when the car is delivered and paid for. The short interest has been high since the first report in July 2010. As a percentage of the float, it has been far higher but the Directors and Officers sold their shares to retail holders

  • Reply to

    people who are shorting Tesla

    by doubledown2145 Jul 31, 2015 10:33 AM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Aug 1, 2015 9:12 AM Flag

    "far lower than my original estimate of 50,000 MS alone to be sure but at that low figure 52% YOY growth gets you to around 400,000 in 2020"

    From a year ago:
    ""Tesla’s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year."
    by justthefactsmaam_ok • Jul 31, 2014 4:21 PM

    Full quote:

    "Provided that we execute well and there are no serious macroeconomic shocks,
    Tesla’s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year."

    Of course that's a long way out but for now the shorts and trolls will have to find something else to rationalize their positions. As it appears for now, my 75,000 estimate for 2015 appears to be low.
    Sentiment: Buy"

    Did your original estimate include delivery of 25,000 Xs in 2015?

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Aug 1, 2015 8:48 AM Flag

    "From TMC: MX reservations increased by 1200"

    The "P' count in the USA jumped by 319 on the last day of the month (from 19097 to 19416) Musk promised the Design Studio (order configuration tool) would be available in July. It's possible Tesla is contacting the early reservation holders privately.

  • Reply to

    Demand off the charts --- Vs ---- rebates

    by kbodie77777 Jul 31, 2015 1:04 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 31, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    LNKD: Interesting whipsaw in after-hours for true believers who think fundamentals do not matter this time. Fan boys should be careful Wednesday evening.

  • Reply to

    people who are shorting Tesla

    by doubledown2145 Jul 31, 2015 10:33 AM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 31, 2015 12:24 PM Flag

    "Maybe they already have a planned offering in the works?"

    Scary:
    Any thoughts about an equity offering and td's magic number ($266/share)

  • Reply to

    Dinotrader remarks

    by inertiatrader Jul 30, 2015 12:25 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 31, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    "You need to understand their buttons. "

    The juveniles here delight in pushing yours and watching you respond like a pre-pubescent, spoiled little girl. If you restricted your posts to what you think you know about the automobile business, half the volume on this board would shrivel up (and spare us from your misunderstanding of financial statements)

  • Reply to

    sales saturation

    by retire_yung Jul 30, 2015 9:51 AM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 30, 2015 10:07 AM Flag

    "Sales growth is not in step with production growth"

    Another "footnote on history" from the Shareholder Letter in July 2014:

    "The speed at which we are executing this capacity upgrade will allow us to exceed 35,000 Model S deliveries this year. Provided that we execute well and there are no serious macroeconomic shocks, Tesla’s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year."

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 29, 2015 11:50 PM Flag

    Ok, MX (it's good Ford had trademarked the model E)

  • Reply to

    Honest longs ==== is the honeymoopn over ?

    by kbodie77777 Jul 28, 2015 9:47 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 29, 2015 11:12 PM Flag

    ((( Can you explain the unusual $17.1M dollar "Other Income" line in Q1 2013? Because that's where the $11.2M net profit came from. It's a footnote on history. doesn't mean anything. )))

    The "footnote on history" was Tesla had been in default of DOE loan covenants multiple times so DOE accelerated loan repayment:

    "“In March 2013, we entered into a fourth amendment of our DOE Loan Facility. This amendment, among other things, modified certain future financial covenants, accelerated the maturity date of the DOE Loan Facility to December 15, 2017, created an obligation to repay approximately 1.0% of the outstanding principal under the DOE Loan Facility on or before June 15, 2013, and created additional contingent obligations based on excess cash flows that may result in accelerated repayment of the DOE Loan Facility starting in 2015. Since we agreed to repay all outstanding principal and interest payments under the DOE Loan Facility by December 15, 2017, the DOE warrant is no longer expected to vest. As a result, we eliminated our common stock warrant liability and reflected $10.7 million of other income in other income, net, for the three months ended March 31, 2013.

    The increase in other income was also attributable to a favorable foreign currency exchange impact from our foreign currency-denominated liabilities, especially related to the Japanese yen.”

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 29, 2015 10:04 PM Flag

    "Certainly, 2015 guidance will be lowered"

    TG

    I am willing to parlay my windfall winnings from a wager early this year with Montanaskeptic about analysts' price targets in a bet with you that Tesla does not reduce delivery for 2015 until the 3Q15 CC in November.

    IMO, Musk will tap dance in the August 5 CC, using the cover that 55k depends on how fast the X production ramp goes vertical and may even be exceeded because of new S orders stimulated by the incentives announced today. (If you're not a high stakes gambler, the offer is extended to MS to allow him to get even.)

  • Reply to

    Does Tesla Make $ from Selling Preowned Cars?

    by oil_philter Jul 29, 2015 2:40 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 29, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    "AFAIK there is no CPO leasing"

    I was told during a recent visit to the new north Houston sales/service center that you could finance but not lease a CPO.

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 29, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    Just a lever being pulled.

  • Reply to

    Tesla's Insane Mode Of Below-Cost Pricing

    by axconith Jul 27, 2015 8:49 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 28, 2015 1:59 AM Flag

    ""Tesla is a startup that recently got $2B in capital from investors. If investors wanted that money to stay in the bank, we would have put it in the bank ourselves. It is Tesla's *job* to spend that money as quickly and wisely as they can. "

    Tesla has been in business over a dozen years. Tesla borrowed $2.3 billion, but only received $2.05 billion after fees and hedges. The notes were marketed as funding Tesla's ~$2 billion share for the GF. Very little of Tesla recent heavy cash burn has gone into GF cap-ex. Some of it has been used to cover Tesla increasing operating losses and most of the rest for CapEx at Fremont (X stamping line and paint shop upgrade.)

  • Reply to

    why is it dropping

    by mrsaeid3 Jul 27, 2015 2:17 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 28, 2015 1:48 AM Flag

    "What day did that guy write the article saying the volatility was out of it with all those charts?"

    My guess is he was planning on writing the strangle and was hoping to induce the gullible to buy the strangle

  • Reply to

    Tesla's Insane Mode Of Below-Cost Pricing

    by axconith Jul 27, 2015 8:49 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 28, 2015 1:45 AM Flag

    "you are claiming that the "Automotive Revenue" line in the 10k contains more than automotive revenue. If that is true, please point out where it's disclosed in the SEC filings"

    It's on page 6 of the latest 10Q:

    "Beginning in the three months ended March 31, 2015, we changed the composition of the revenue and cost of revenue lines in our statements of operations. Automotive includes revenues related to deliveries of new Model S, including vehicle options, data connectivity, and Supercharging, sales of regulatory credits to other automotive manufacturers, amortization of revenue for cars sold with resale value guarantees, Model S leasing revenue, and scrap sales. Services and other consists of sales of electric vehicle powertrain components and systems to other manufacturers, maintenance and development services, Tesla Energy, and pre-owned Tesla vehicle sales. Prior period amounts have been reclassified to conform to the current period presentation."

    IMO, regulatory credits should be reported as "Other Income" because they relate only to cars sold in certain jurisdictions; and, under Tesla's own rules for revenue recognition, they occur in the quarter the credits are sold to other manufacturers not when the qualifying cars are delivered.

  • Reply to

    Tesla's Insane Mode Of Below-Cost Pricing

    by axconith Jul 27, 2015 8:49 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 28, 2015 1:26 AM Flag

    The most accurate statement of what has been happening to ASPs was made by TechTalker in the comments section to the SA article:

    "Here's average revenue per vehicle for each quarter. I used this formula: (automotive revenue + deferred revenue - tax credits)/vehicles sold.

    Q1 2014: $108.30k
    Q2 2014: $113.00k
    Q3 2014: $107.46k
    Q4 2014: $102.67k
    Q1 2015: $98.66k

    Tesla's revenue per car is about the same each quarter, except in Q4 2014 and Q1 2015, revenue per car declined because of the Euro's effect on exchange rates.

  • Reply to

    The gigafactory is a Giga-game-changer.

    by sedlakfinancial Jul 27, 2015 1:23 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 27, 2015 8:41 PM Flag

    "Reply to Gigafactory by ericap7104 •Jun 1, 2015 9:16 AM
    n0m0renancy • Jun 1, 2015 9:46 AM Remove 1users liked this postsusers disliked this posts0Reply

    Check post 2053 on the TMC Tesla Giga-factory investor thread"

    There was some contemporaneous discussion about a change in design. It was only a few bays of vertical structural steel that were dismantled--could have re-purposed them else where for the changed design rather than waiting for a new steel to be delivered.

  • Reply to

    Pop-up stores ====== very strange indeed

    by kbodie77777 Jul 27, 2015 7:06 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 27, 2015 8:26 PM Flag

    Speaking of pop ups:

    I recently visited the new north Houston showroom and service center. It's an impressive facility-probably about 35,000 leased sq. ft in a freeway location that google maps still shows as raw land. It includes a large service area--maybe 14 or so cars could be worked on. About a half dozen service techs were being trained and there were three or so sales people. There were also a dozen or more cars described as "service loaners" and about a half dozen Supercharger spots. Only thing missing was customers (but it was mid week.) All my pre-visit calls to confirm they were open rolled to Fremont. On one of the calls that was forwarded to Fremont the guy who answered said the location was a pop-up store.

    Anyone who gets a General Distinguishing Number in Texas can sell used cars. The "service loaners" might be a clever way of evading Texas laws on selling new cars without complying with requirements for being a new car dealer.

  • n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 27, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    "robots have become unstable."

    Elon has been warning about the risks of AI.

  • Reply to

    Tesla ====== going to lose lots of money

    by kbodie77777 Jul 17, 2015 5:03 PM
    n0m0renancy n0m0renancy Jul 27, 2015 2:14 PM Flag

    See: http://fortune.com/2015/07/22/teslas-cheaper-car

TSLA
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