The real fun would be when in near future, some FB longs would not believe when they'll look back, that how come they were hypnotized by the mass media, to pump-up a glorified-website to 70B+ valuation! Most registered-users are there as long as its a freebie and because of the screen-size restrictions, mobile will never be that kinda revenue generator for FB. IOW: Next 5000 years' of potential income-generation valuation you are paying now in FB (that assumes at least 1000 big-Ben like chairpersons to pump-up the M2 money supply in the journey)! LoL! :-)
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Any one who knew how to properly parse the subtle signals in the dynamics of CRAY's pps movement these past 4 weeks, kinda understood that this post-earnings selloff was bound to happen.
You are kidding, right? -OR- Do you even remotely understand the pre-conditions and dynamics of a squeeze? Here, let me make it easy for you to comprehend: If there are 10000 folks stuffed in a hall say, and there is only one small door to get out, and if some philanthropist arrives outside, and starts handing out 1 oz. gold-bar donations, naturally most of those folks will rush to get out through that small-door and a squeeze would ensue. OTOH -- imagine another scenario: Same hall with those 10000 folks and a door, and lets say a fully-loaded Waste-Management truck arrives outside from the municipality. Now, is there any reason for those folks to rush out and grab the cr*p outside? Hopefully, you get the metaphoric picture here!
The real joke was once told by one of the club members: Many FB longs secretly wear hoodies in their closets, just to try them on and hang-around for a while, with the superstition that, perhaps there is some secret "success-sauce" hidden in the hoodie itself, the magic, that will bring out "billion-$$" luck before one's 30th birthday! But, in the process, perhaps because its too small, they partially suffocate themselves for a while, thus depriving the cerebrum from oxygen ... reducing their decision-making ability w.r.t. managing their FB-paper ... then, they hang-on in the entire trip, say, from 38 to 17, then from 32 to 25 etc...and go through resulting emotions, most of the time scared of the shadow cast by the hoodie's opening on the ground ... which is elliptical in shape, approximating a circle, representing a zero! Thus, instead of the dreams of the "hero" they get the periodic-nightmares of the "zero"! LoL! :-)
sm22ray: You are funny bud .. just making up statements there as you go, huh! I'd an initial FB-short gt. than 37 (see my posts @ IPO time)... that I covered at 18. Then I had re-shorted at 32.48 and covered again at 25.25 (see old posts again) ... and re-shorted in the AH spike gt. than 28! LoL! :-) Don't believe this ... it will be easier to do so on your system! And, whatever helps to reduce your BloodPressure, I'm all for it! LoL! :-) I'm in pristine and perfect health, no need to worry.
Wrong focus there ... there is not much multi-year history and consistency to rely on that metric yet. However, what is of utmost importance in the next 3-6 months is this observation (that some one else made): There are zillions of insider-geeks etc., with tons of stock options, just itching to cash-out (perhaps to go free and start their own ventures etc. IOW: get de-hoodiefied! :-)]. When all the supply comes in the public-float, the gravity will do its thing! Not a great scenario to look forward to, if looking to see appreciation of your FB-paper).
froznicehole: That's the key right there ... where you focus makes all the difference! If you make a mountain of a minor ant-typo, you are focusing as an English teacher and not on financial dynamics! And substance has to be there in reader's mind too, to pick-up on subtle signals. Otherwise, when I showed that post to my cat, she just said: "Meow" and moved on! LoL! :-)
My model generated these odds: 99.9999%-favorable-probability that FB-pps sees 21 instead of 35 this year,
93% " -- that 19 instead of 33 and 82% " -- that 18 instead of 32.76! Go figure!
and such "shakeouts" may continue for 132 sessions ... that would bring us to Oct ... and then the tax-loss selling would ensue until Nov 20th! Low and behold ... you get to buy a bargain at 17 again! LoL! :-)
And most 21 to 27 year olds are finding it hard to get a decent-job these days; perhaps their parents will let them stay a few more years in the basement, but will continually fund their clicking-habits on a 4-inch LCD screen all day long ... those days are coming to the end in this age ... and fast!
An event of that significance never goes un-noticed by hedgies. In fact, a lot of big-boys have a tacit-rule: Never touch a stock for at least 2 quarters, after a CFO or CAO, or a business-executive of that capacity resigns! Period! When the next guy comes around, he generally kitchen-sinks the old guys' quarter to start afresh and try to bring-out all the cockroaches in one lump-sum, in a wholesale fashion. Plus, Sell-In-May has also arrived it seems as usual, looking at today's market action!
designteamgeek: How are you doing these days? Even after a year, the prospects don't look good ... there was no AH bounce post-earnings in this quarter also...this tells me it may succumb to heavy profit taking in the summer-swoons of the market. The first day of May has started the exodus of the hedgies from the bubbled-up issues it seems.