Shouldn't do much to BPT as BPT based on defined wells' production. Might have impact on piprline life. Read the supporting docs and learn about what you're buying.
Notice how quiet the bear posters have become. Trimmed a little before ex-div-wish I'd waited. This board has both the hold-n-collect and the traders and both post. Will probably trim a bit more at $80.
Today the Swiss pulled the plug on the franc and oil moved up. Oil is a fluid world market(pardon the pun) where world events jeopardize assumptions of fixed prices- Boko Haram destroys a major Nigerian pipeline; Venezuela goes thru bankruptcy or a revolution; there's another blowout in the Gulf or a hurricane; the Saudi king passes. IMO the next dist will be in the $1.80 range if the WTI stays where it is. By the way, have been staying entertained and making a few $ by buying UCO and selling covered calls. .
Be aware he predicted $1.95 this quarter. He posts well and puts a lot of thought and effort into his bearish viewpoint. He and dot have reentered the board presenting their bearish point of view which can include stopping all flow at a given time. They do finite models with WTI oil prices and come out with finite numbers. Looks good but is it any better than a WAG? Valueprofessor is still missing from the board after patronizing me for not modeling. There are two varieties of owners of this stock- traders which I suspect the above are and the holders for distribution which I am. That is not to say I don't take some off the top and keep my position in balance- there is that 2018 date to be concerned with.
Next thing that will happen is Venezuela will essentially go bankrupt bringing the Chinese debt into the oil market but pulling Venezuelan production from the world market IMO.
With the 2018 increase in chargeable costs am playing hold and selling small bits ahead of that time on rises in price and in covered calls-just to avoid the drop like we've had recently.
Look at profile-lists BPT in Austin, Tx. There was a notification some time ago re this. Was going to call re this later today.
should have been 3rd per past performance. They changed administrator, I think. so this may have disrupted timing? Tried googling tonite and got Dec info. Don't know what's happening.
You can model and assume all you want, but it still boils out to a WAG. All it takes is a bomb in a Libyan oil dist center. a Gulf hurricane, a Nigerian uprising and you've got huge swings. You get the asset managers who take the production divided into the stated reserves and declare NAV's of $30. You also have the cowboys who talk of selling wells and drilling new.
To do a good job of modeling you'd have to use differential equations and model in the variables. I have been trading the UCO so am aware of the futures market.
Don't model-find it's unrealistic to assign hard numbers to subjects which are prone to major geo-political forces, nature, wars, manipulation and SA bear attack articles(Hedgeeye) etc. My empirical feeling is that $70 oil will produce a distribution of $2.50 to $2.75-have been a holder since 2009 and at current levels have over a triple and at a $1.90 get something like a 25% return on my initial investment.
You should also realize that the 500k barrels are not just from BP production related to BPT but also include new wells, other fields and step out production.
Would like to see your rationale for the $1.25 since your posts all tend to be bearish and self serving short. OPEC has forecast $70 oil by end 2015. Expect might be higher than that.
TBoone is forecasting $115 by end 2015. When you're spitting in the wind or depending on financial analysts with NAV's, the value of oil is only good today. Even futures are just that-estimates. Glass is half full or not. Where do you think oil will be. The Sunni's are running wild, OPEC is suffering cohesion problems and our wells runneth over. I only wish the world could be quantified by a simple mathematic equation. IMO the price of oil will rise-probably in January. Your opinion is as good as mine.
With oil down as well as precious metals, now is not a good time to buy. You'll see a lot of bad mouth bear posts-these are from traders who profit when the stock drops -ergo the bear talk. The stock is thinly traded so it doesn't take much to move the peg. There is going to be a cost increase-in chargeable costs- in 2018. Be careful if you read articles from Seeking Alpha. They had several by financial advisors, including Hedgeye, that were flat out wrong and written by pe ople who didn't know an oil field from a field of corn. Anytime you see NPV in an oil article hit delete. I expect distributions to be down for the foreseeable future due to the price of crude. Expect 1/3/15 dist announcement to be close to $2 which with a $75 stock price works out to 10% /yr. Expect price to work back up to close to $80 by then. Depends on your expectations