On April 19, predicted $.30-.40 in July. Not changing yet, but believe you are closer than I. Keep the WTI climbing. BTW-have you noticed the disappearance of frosty,funky and DTM from this board?
This was around the normal daily volume until the sharks and the bashers attacked. The drop in WTI had a huge affect on the volume and the thinly traded stock's volativity was greatly magnitied.
Wasn't the rig count only related to the Prudhomme Bay field? Suspect balance of Alaska oil fields have also undergone rig reduction a/c WTI pricing. Does thst number also include workover rigs, which can be different machines than production rigs. They keep the pumps running by recirculating oil.
Don't sweat frosty. He's an abstract mathematician-you've seen those guys in the movies standing in front of a huge chalkboard- with equations to save the universe. He admitted several months ago he has no position of any kind in BPT and has not corrected that in several direct questions from me. He doesn't know oil and reservoirs. Therefore is he credible? WTI is the key. Have predicted July @$.30-40 based on $40 WTI.
Looks like some shorts are being squeezed. Frosty do you have any skin in this game/ Or are you just bloviating as O'Reilly says.
Just a WAG without all the fancy calculations and assumptions that seem to influence the prognosticators who seemingly always preach the decline of BPT to zero-I predict a July payout of $.30-.40 with the only caveat being WTI ranging in price between $40-$50/bbl. Missed the April payout, announced in Feb by 2.8cents but that was a 28% overstatement.
Trading near normal volume prior to short attack. Suspect some of that volume may have been covering. Maybe a pause before announcement-tomorrow at latest.
After all your verbiage and mathematical gyrations you are within the margin of error of the $.10 I predicted on Feb 8. You still have not responded to a previous question-Are you a stakeholder in BPT-long,short, options, whatever? or are you just a poster with too much time on their hands?
Normal daily for years has bounced around 200k daily-until an SA/Barrons attack article with follow on opinions that repeat and add nothing concrete to the discussion pile on. Then volume skyrockets and the traders make money(they hope). I suspect some naked shorting mixed with some high freq shenanigans. Your thoughts?
Production taxes are what they are. You can calculate to your heart's content with all the numbers you hold most dear. NPV is a WAG guess even by the company as they have to use a set-in-stone production life and WTI of a given date. As have stated before the elephants in the room are WTI and the chargeable costs. an old prof used to say KISS!
On Feb 8th predicted $.10 and have reiterated several times. I have a feeling it might be just a tad higher, but then I don't use questionable calculations with questionable assumptions to justify my position. By the way-Do you a position in this trust? You last stated you didn't.
Thinly traded, pushed down by some very anti-articles and aggressive selling(maybe even illegal or hvt). Drop in WTI was lever. I suspect we'll see it near $20 next week(because of long weekend). Distribution comes next, which I believe will surprise some of the naysayers. Then I expect BPT to climb to near $30 unless there's a big drop in WTI. We might, I hope even see a short squeeze.
They don't get credit for new wells drilled omly from specified wells. They benefit from workovers and modifications of existing wells. Thus rig count is not a valid point.
Don't feel too sorry-They got a 12-14% return on invested capital for 4-5 years-with reinvest and compounding they're probably ok. By selective trimming they're probably even ahhead.