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Famous Dave's of America Inc. Message Board

nadsmis 175 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Jun 23, 2009
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  • Reply to

    shorts

    by dwcllc1 11 hours ago

    of COURSE you do. if your cost basis is below that of current share price then you are losing. saying you lose nothing until you sell is no different than saying it doesn't matter if your bank account is drained until you need it. geez furball. you are smarter than that...

    (also i have borrowed against my stock portfolio and ceiling was higher due to higher account balance - based on current prices)

  • Reply to

    Will return in green tomorrow

    by ninht88 7 hours ago

    when the entire market goes red, i call it a bad day. when DJI is down 5 - 10% i call that a dip. when DJI down 10 - 15%, then i call it a correction.

    i expect there to be more buying the balance of the week baring anymore geopolitical issues (Ukraine, Ebola, Taiwan)

    i don't think for a minute that SDRL will go up this week.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Plow as hedge

    by fund_a_mentalist Sep 30, 2014 1:48 PM

    oh, i get you. lol. sure, it makes the snow a wee bit more tolerable when it helps you financially. no different than utilities becoming more profitable with colder weather. have also played GNRC in the past just after hurricane Sandy. did quite well and took profits. it has tanked horribly ever since as quarterly earnings compare poorly. i hold PLOW and expect it to do well while enjoying the nice dividend.

    you saw what Baird had to say tho - right?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    what happened today?

    by nadsmis Sep 30, 2014 3:34 PM

    sorry, don't know what your post means. gotta love the way PLOW is standing up in down market tho.....

  • Reply to

    WHAT IS GOING ON ?????

    by jchia1236 Sep 30, 2014 3:19 PM

    i don't.

  • Reply to

    Let's be honest

    by tnorman61 6 hours ago

    you have got to be kidding. elim the dividend? apparently you aren't a shareholder. the idea is to grow shareholder wealth. this isn't Alibaba. a suspension to dividend would also result in huge selloff resulting in big capital gains losses.

    BP has to ride out current oil glut which will adversely impact earnings. that is why i remain on the side lines with this position. BP is shareholder friendly and, once dust settles, i will be back in for higher yield due to lower PPS and sustained dividends.

    you gotta be nuts.

  • Reply to

    Will return in green tomorrow

    by ninht88 7 hours ago

    lol. the market is not in a correction mode but SDRL sure is. a tank mode.

    SDRL will underperform the market and, if dividend survives, yield will still not begin to cover capital loss. altho i don't play stocks short, if i did, i would short this one.

    i closed my position at 35.35 and dodged a 27.8% capital gains loss. the bullet didn't get me.

    geez, you don't believe your own CEO who cautioned shareholders during last earnings report?? the market believed him.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    closing UBFO position

    by nadsmis Jun 25, 2014 10:48 AM

    bump it...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    2% drops a day,

    by osulindrool Sep 25, 2014 11:10 AM

    i keep telling you that it isn't that i'm small it is simply your mouth is so big. lol

  • Reply to

    So, when would be the time to buy?

    by edsha28 13 hours ago

    well i got my feet wet at 13.01 so am down 5.76% very quickly.

    we all know that it is foolhardy to try to time the market. IMO, geopolitical issues are having an adverse affect on the industry. the beating is not company specific. Boeing is having a fire sale of 700 series planes (good time to buy). aviation fuel is cheap and getting cheaper and demand for flying remains high. that will help earnings while there remains a consistent demand for leased planes which helps revenue.

    Ebola scare is affecting air travel and ALL airline stocks are tumbling. that spills over into air lease industry. Really, not to worry. when sectors are hit not due to financial metrics, when good public companies are hit despite good earnings, it is a buying opportunity. unfortunately i am all in and light on cash after jumping on market weakness last weak.

    not enjoying this ride but am confident of near term turnaround.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Everyday (9/30)

    by beefstu57 Sep 30, 2014 4:06 PM

    beef, it is time for you to take your marbles and go home. SIX did very well yesterday in a down market. Market getting pounded today and SIX is holding its own while paying good yield of 5.23%.

    you are depressing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • yah, weather outlook for winter in snow belt is supposed to be a rough one. the midwest has had 12 consecutive months of below average temperatures and looks like that trend should continue.

    a suggestion might be to invest with Douglas Dynamics (PLOW). they have the majority of market share for pickup snow plows and salt spreaders and have a very good yield of 4.5%. i've done rather well there but am topped out there as that position is over my threshold for diversification at 28% my stock portfolio. Just got dividends yesterday and they were up over 2% so they made my day.

    DYOD and i think you will like them. GNRC has dropped 29.3% since i liquidated at 55.55 PPS. with no dividend, no stock buyback program, an SO 18 mos. ago, and increased competition, outlook does not look good and the market views them unfavorably.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Then Vs Now

    by tthemainman38 Sep 30, 2014 11:46 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Sep 30, 2014 6:57 PM Flag

    Ed,
    you, Mainman, and Strum all raise perceptive, intuitive, and valid issues. an important comment is the underperforming plane leasing sector as a whole. IMO, the whole sector is oversold. i sold off AYR at 18.35 PPS and dodges a nearly 11% capital loss (not incl yield). i had previously liquidated FLY at 14.75% and dodged a 12% capital loss as well.

    however, i opened another position with FLY at 13.01 and am confident that the market will catch up and that there are terrific opportunities to made with both FLY and AYR. the financial metrics look good, the yield and P/E will keep me patient for a bit. of primary concern is the keen competition allowing nobody to get fat and happy.

    FLY competes with GE Commercial Aviation Services Limited (GECAS), ILFC, AerCap B.V., Aircastle Advisor LLC, Air Lease Corp., Aviation Capital Group, Avolon, AWAS, Boeing Capital Corporation, CIT Group Inc., Macquarie Bank Limited, RBS Aviation Capital, Bank of China Aviation, Sky Holdings, Vx Capital Partners and Jackson Square Aviation.

    currently Boeing 700 series are being heavily discounted. hope Barrington makes a long overdue move. will give a good jolt to PPS.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Did you read the business section? UNBELIEVABLE. Sue worked 5 hour days with a 2 hour lunch and was often intoxicated while on the job. court testimony by 2 former employees (her direct reports) was simply incredible. both were terminated - after the fact.

    Michael Koss, Sue's direct mgr, had suggested to her that she be promoted to CFO which SHE declined. he thought her HONEST for that. simply astounding. illustrates his involvement....

    i know what the business community and shareholders think of him but why on earth would his family continue to allow him to hold CEO position? is the BOD that well compensated that they too would not have resigned or, at least, pushed for termination???

    PPS down 57.7% since i closed position at 4.87

    what a shame. this is another story useful for teaching business students pursuing their MBA's. a good case history.

    wow

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • nadsmis nadsmis Sep 30, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    well gentlemen, i gotta bump this post. CMI continues to tank. as there continues to be a glut on gasoline, expect that trend to continue. Fracking will continue to cheapen oil, natural gas and byproducts making a higher investment into diesel engines less attractive due to poor ROI. that is simple math.

    want an option, go invest in oil storage. personally, i went with NSH and have realized a 12% capital gain on top of a yield of 5%. working out nicely. left CMI at 140 PPS and so dodged a 5.7% capital loss.

    the bleeding here will continue for some time - and i am not talking months but mean YEARS. if i played anything short, which i do not, this stock is a perfect candidate. you will bleed even more as shorts climb on board.

    cut your losses. this is a Strong Sell.

    sorry....

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    PPS seen falling into $20 range

    by nolic1944 Aug 6, 2014 12:38 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Sep 30, 2014 6:04 PM Flag

    you mean nightmare? lol

  • nadsmis nadsmis Sep 30, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    wow. how long have you used that wishing well. told you and told you that Kohler, Yamaha, Honda, Wicks are eating into market share and now we are coming past any catalyst like a tornado outbreak or hurricane. no dividend = no yield. no stock buyback program. had a secondary offering which diluted stocks ownership.

    this is not a shareholder friendly company and that is why Mr Market has been jilting GNRC. i too realized 2 special dividends and a nice capital gain and liquidated this postion at 55.55 PPS. not only has GNRC dropped an ungodly 27% since then, not paying out any dividend, the overall market has gone up.

    why on earth do you guys still hold? seriously, hasn't enough been enough???

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I found no news but... big buying underway. 4x volume.

    I can find no news...

  • nadsmis by nadsmis Sep 30, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    rc5717,

    we had our "discussion" regarding insider selling last spring when Magdol sold off 100,000 shares at between 34 and 34.24 PPS. since that time, he has picked up several hundred more most recently on 5/15 for 228 direct/automatic for 30.2. there has been no insider buying, nor selling since 5/30 (which was Jackson at $30.66 PPS direct buy). ominous? your take?

    incidentally, Vinny Foster holds just shy of 1.5m shares. source = Vickers

    a rough day today...

    were I not so top heavy in MAIN as is, I would be buying

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    the beatdown continues unabated

    by nadsmis Sep 22, 2014 12:42 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Sep 29, 2014 5:44 PM Flag

    hgl, your horizon is extremely small. PLOW closed at 21.09 on Sept 11 prior to Baird downgrade. my cost basis is approx. 17.25 as i have bought and sold several times. am now holding.

DAVE
26.79-0.13(-0.48%)Oct 1 4:00 PMEDT

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