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Famous Dave's of America Inc. Message Board

nadsmis 228 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 24, 2015 1:39 PM Member since: Jun 23, 2009
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  • Reply to

    What's Up With Selling CNG?

    by palinbigbazzoo Jan 22, 2015 11:09 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Feb 9, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    do you care after today and last week's trading? i bet you do...

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by loren33498 Jan 16, 2015 8:45 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Feb 9, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    don't hold your breath on a split. expect ED, and all other utilities and REITs, to begin to decline in value. last couple trading days horrific for sector and that beating will continue all the way thru Fed announcement on interest rates. right now, speculation is pulling them all down - significantly.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • i expected to see the earnings release on the 4th. phoned investor relations at PLOW and was told Q4 earnings release scheduled for March 4th. odd. Q3 release was Nov. 3rd. guess we wait a bit but that should be to our advantage as we should get a nice kick from the Henderson acquisition.

    thought you may like this tidbit hgl...
    found out that Toro purchased Boss snowplow business from Northern Star 3 months ago. they paid cash...!
    immediately sold off more AAPL and bought into TTC and now an equal market investment between PLOW and TTC. this helps me reconcile my observations in seeing more new Boss plows (by far) out on the road than Western/Blizzard. yield much less but i'm expecting a boost to the TTC PPS come their next couple Q's. they were doing well before the purchase, hence the cash deal.

    still plan on keeping PLOW position at least thru next couple Q's. earnings oughta be stellar.

    an interesting conversation with the guy i spoke to in investor relations at PLOW. he lives in Wisconsin and said he also observed more new Boss on the road in Wisconsin. that is PLOW's backyard. Northern Star Boss business HQ'ed in MI.

    will be fun to track the comparison between PLOW and TTC. altho a light trading day for PLOW, a very nice gain to shareprice. i bet we see more of that coming.

    thought you might be interested in TTC. Plenty of room left....

    Nad

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Great purchase and very timely. i also have a large position with Douglas Dynamics (PLOW). Both Boss and PLOW are the 2 largest players in the snowplow business. altho not too big on Toro, the Boss purchase from Northern Star Ind is a terrific deal. that will push TTC earnings and revenue. a cash purchase? nice...

    not too good a yield here but i am counting on seeing great capital gains via earnings push to PPS.

    i'm in....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MERGER

    by jimmccar Jan 30, 2015 5:16 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Feb 3, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    jimmccar,

    i too am also big on the merger. so is Mr. Market. with the Scripps marriage in mind, JRN is a good play and PPS will reflect that. i got back into JRN this last time at 10.71 PPS and expect that to begin paying off post upcoming earnings release for Q4 early this March.

    all these other posts we see here on this board that attack the merger and JRN appear to be ex-employees. a lot of bitterness and probably well founded. nonetheless, time to move on and make something of what's out there now and in the future.

    good fortune to you....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    losing patience (and $)

    by nadsmis Jan 29, 2015 3:12 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Feb 3, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    you are correct if you are assuming i play a trader's game. current transitional lifestyle dictates that. am expecting my 2 lone BCD's (MAIN and ARCC) to perform as income stocks but must still be concerned that yield covers capital losses.

    i've a couple growth stocks that i trade in and out of as i try to turn my money. i never really consider i've profited unless i sell and realize the gains. AAPL is my largest growth stock and i don't expect to hold that past next Q.

    as everyone should, i've a couple speculative holdings with FLY, JRN, and (to a very small extent) HL on the premise NA and AU should improve as interest rates and inflation will ultimately come back into play.

    utilities are a large portion of my portfolio and have covered me well with my BDC capital losses over the last 12 months.

    i always like comparing notes with other investors and traders. i believe the successful individual investors and traders outperform instituional investors by beating them to the punch. altho a lot of riffratt and crazies on these boards,(pumpers, shills, and shorts) there are a lot of savvy folks as well and it is good to get other constructive opinions.

    i'd give up more here but my resident pumper-stalker will counter post and irritate me further.

    i can see you are a player and i wish you well.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    losing patience (and $)

    by nadsmis Jan 29, 2015 3:12 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Feb 3, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    oh shaddup

  • Reply to

    FLY going to break out

    by nadsmis Jan 26, 2015 1:47 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Feb 2, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

    mainman,
    i understand and appreciate your position. yep, airline stocks have soared but i attribute that mostly to the drop of input costs derived from lower fuel expenses.

    55% of outstanding shares are owned by institutional buyers which is similar to the GE's and AAPL's. i have to believe those are the weak hands you speak of. institutional buyers typically lead the charge but are slower on the buying trigger than most of us individual investors. in general, they lag. those same institutional buyers are quicker on the selling trigger than us and PPS has suffered accordingly.

    FLY beta @ .9 (that's appealing to them), and historical volatility @ 22.8%. with sound financial metrics (we agree on this), institutional buyers will catch up. we want to be there first.

    Don't wait too long on re-upping FLY. today not a good example but trading in FLY was slow. IMO, buy, hold, enjoy the distributions (well protected) and beat the curve..... I treat FLY as an income stock but expect it to perform well as a growth stock too.

    good luck

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm out, and here's why...

    by bkluck Jan 30, 2015 11:25 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Feb 2, 2015 7:11 PM Flag

    bkbkluck,
    i do not DRIP. i let Ameritrade drop the dividends into a money market then buy at my pleasure vs. having distributions auto plopped when it may not be a good time. often i choose to simply reinvest in another position.

    PSEC is oversold and i believe a good buy. less than 10% of outstanding PSEC shares are held by institutional buyers and they haven't overcome shareholders dislike of their recent drop to dividends (despite thier rationale of targeting higher tier investments). what i did was take proceeds from sell of MAIN (a premium BDC) and put down into ARCC. i still own a large chunk of MAIN as over 20% are held by institutional buyers. both PSEC and MAIN beta near 1 and historical volatility about 19%. ARCC close.

    be careful of tax exposure. for instance, about 80% of MAIN distributions are taxed by IRS as straight income tax - unlike tax advantages offered by ETP.

    bytheby, i am considering using puts and calls and since re-entry into the markets in JAN. 2009, have now retired, am 7 months away from having real estate holdings become nearly maintenance free and so will have the time to work the markets more than i do now. your comments on using Puts have not gone unappreciated.

  • Reply to

    Two ways to play ETP

    by superbirdrob Feb 2, 2015 12:07 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Feb 2, 2015 6:52 PM Flag

    hey ya sail,

    i agree, and consider ETP still an oversold equity and still a buy. as per previous post, tripled my ETP holdings from AAPL sale (altho i still hold a big AAPL position). working out well.

    with great yield i will be patient here and treat ETP as an income vs. growth stock. still in all, those distributions at current yield are certainly welcomed.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    losing patience (and $)

    by nadsmis Jan 29, 2015 3:12 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Feb 2, 2015 6:35 PM Flag

    rc,

    clear it up for "us"? huh? who do you think you speak for? and should you speak only for yourself, i've nothing to clear up for you. once again, your time and efforts should focused on tracking the OVERALL market and your performance with your BDC portfolio and then MAIN within that context.

    yes, i recall you selling your ARCC position. not a good move to date - is it? better focus on your math and come to terms with your paradigms.

    then... care to tell "us"? again, you mean you? who do you think you are??? i know what you are. a pompous blowhard searching for any reinforcement you can find and unable to handle any type opionion not alligned with your own. that's one of my "astute observations" you so mockingly speak of. sorry Bub, but YOU had that coming.

    lastly, as you are so fond of tracking my performance, on 012915...
    bought ARCC @ 15.562 @ PPS and financed with partial selloff of MAIN position @ 29.0132
    as you track me, don't forget to figure in distributions and tax treatment.

    you've not disclosed your share count. i believe it to be a pittance which is why you do not seem too perturbed in capital losses you incur with your overweight position in BDC sector. i seek capital appreciation with growth stocks but don't take kindly to seeing a loss in income stock capital not covered by distributions. and that has been the case with MAIN which is why the partial switch to ARCC. you did it butt backwards.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    losing patience (and $)

    by nadsmis Jan 29, 2015 3:12 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Feb 2, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    personally, my time frame must be shorter than yours and using comparisons going back over 2 years is not something i am prone to. it's all about what you've done for me lately and what i expect you to do going forward. mayhaps that data should indicate it is time to ring the register and reap the profits? be prepared for unfavorable treatment of taxes on MAIN dividend...

    just saying...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    increased (significantly) PLOW position

    by nadsmis Jan 29, 2015 3:23 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Feb 2, 2015 5:51 PM Flag

    i have a lot of those. also a lot that worked for me. actually, AAPL is totally a growth stock vs. income stock so it is made to buy and sell. mayhaps a year from now you may find that AAPL was a good move plus, mayhaps you made $ on what you put AAPL proceeds into.

    AAPL has continued to do well since my sell but i did better with ETP (hugely better) and NSH (better) but not PLOW (worse). however, i have faith in PLOW forthcoming earnings report. guess we will find out tomorrow. do or die. nonetheless, snow has been pounding us out east and i see the midwest got it and we are getting it again. record snowfall in some areas. gotta believe this is all good for PLOW and even if we don't get what we expect this Q, i bet we do next Q (YOY).

    i rate PLOW a Buy and would purchase more but want to see earnings. it drops, i liquidate FB and put more down on PLOW in anticipation of earnings report for Q1 2015. dividend will keep me happy and FB yield is 0. so, like AAPL, what is there to keep us patient? little or nothing.

    good fortune to us all tomorrow. looking forward to it. no fear. either we make out nicely or have an opportunity for next Q based on current revenue from these hellabig storms nationwide.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    all out...

    by nadsmis Nov 11, 2014 11:47 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Jan 30, 2015 5:28 PM Flag

    got back in yesterday at 35.81 PPS. a quality move (if i do say so myself). esp with today's beat down. love the timing and the yield ain't bad.

    wonder why this board has no chatter. always enjoy shareholders rants and raves....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    made the move with ETP

    by nadsmis Jan 29, 2015 3:30 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Jan 29, 2015 4:42 PM Flag

    rjmc,

    i couldn't have said that any better. anyway, i dug into your post history and totally enjoyed the post from the Holy Moley topic regarding Obama. Again, well said.

    i reaped a tidy profit on the AAPL run. rang the cash register, sold half that position, and put down on PLOW, ETP, and NSH.

    had hoped for a better response to FB earnings but that arrogant Zucker put off Wall St once again. not complaining about a 2.31% bounce to PPS but FB shareprice should have enjoyed the same ride as AAPL. glad i had no MSFT.

    GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • nadsmis nadsmis Jan 29, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    you'll pay that tax when you sell....

  • increased my ETP position 3 fold. bought @ 60.32 and 60.33 as PPS moved up during the transaction.

    i don't expect to make a killing but expect a tidy profit over next 3 - 4 Q's.

    ETP way oversold after acquisition and oil glut. this is indeed the time to buy here....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • that's right hgl. as previously posted, i stuck to the plan (mostly). i sold off portion of AAPL which financed my buy today into PLOW. maybe that helped boost the PPS a tiny bit.

    since i reduced PLOW postion, it has risen nicely and your last buy is paying off well for you. congrats. altho i would have enjoyed those gains had i stuck, i more than made up for those gains with AAPL.

    now, let us both hope for steller earnings report. a good report won't be good enuff to cover recent gains realized by folks buying into the east coast blizzard. the report has to be stellar in order to drive the PPS higher than current high expectations.

    tempered my PLOW buy because of the recent uptick by also increasing my position in ETP which has been hurt from an acquisition (Regency) and from the oil glut (simply because they service that industry). gotta buy low and sell high - right? also bought back into NSH (oil storage). good yields to both and both are trading lower thru no fault of their own. had a lot of $ from AAPL sell even tho i left 50% of AAPL on the table.

    so there you have it......

  • sorry rc. mayhaps my sell earlier today dropped MAIN PPS further.

    took 50% of MAIN holdings and bought into ARCC. altho the BDC sector continues to underperform the DJI, ARCC has been hurt much less than MAIN. over last 12 months MAIN down 14.47% PPS and ARCC down 6.92% PPS.

    ARCC yield = 9.22% vs. MAIN yield = 7.02%

    ARCC drop to share price covered by dividends, MAIN has not.

    I expect that trend to continue.

    i know YOU don't like comparing BDC's to DJI but, unlike most investors, we diversify as opposed to investing solely in 1 sector. personally the vast majority of my positions are spread across everything from REIT, to utilities, to BDC's, to industrials, to tech (yes, AAPL and FB) and just increased a position in an oil related stock (ETP). i am better off for that diversification and shudder to think if i had been solely invested in BDC's.

    at this time, I will keep ARCC and MAIN to keep my balance of income vs. growth stocks in line.

    i expect this post to generate another narrative from you (lol) but you can now enjoy tracking me with BDC holdings. bought ARCC @ 16.56 and sold the MAIN @ 29.01.

    @ 3:00 EST, i am under water from the MAIN/ARCC shift. we shall see. huh?

    good luck and good fortune to all MAIN Longs but

    Sentiment: Hold

  • nadsmis nadsmis Jan 29, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    you were talking puts, we weren't.

    we were just discussing the relevance of ex-div vs. affect to PPS.

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