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Famous Dave's of America Inc. Message Board

nadsmis 212 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Jun 23, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Interesting Chart Pattern Developing

    by pb_harris4 Mar 27, 2015 4:59 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 7, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    what baloney. why not the "cup and handle" routine? that is just as useless and simply another gimmic.

    large flage formation... c'mon pb.

    just call it a "falling rock".

  • Reply to

    unreal...

    by nadsmis Mar 25, 2015 12:07 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 7, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    quad,

    i know the pumper is a proponent of SO's but then he is in love and hence i discount his lengthy math lectures and equations. i have him pegged as a small investor and so relatively unaffected by drop to shareprice. however, you claim to have some substantial holdings in MAIN and so i am perplexed by your pro-SO stance.

    The SO announcement came 3-9 and there was an immediate selloff the following day with volume exceeding 1.3M shares and PPS dropping from 31.14 to close at 30.33. THAT was the immediate affect of the SPO. undeniable (altho a resolute pumper may post otherwise). investors don't like seeing dilution and so they sold.

    your post focuses on 4-6 with the hypothesis (invalid) that effects of SPO were ephemeral since PPS on 4-16 happened to be @ 31.19. however, today's close of 30.95 represented a .83% drop from your bench date. were we to choose today's closing as a bench date, that would shoot your hypothesis down.

    look, i have a very large chunk of change invested in MAIN and no one wants to see it perform better than i. i am very encouraged to see the shareprice absorb that SO hit as well as it did but i also realize that had not that immediate impact of the SO to the shareprice hit, PPS would be higher (all things being equal) by $.81/share. that 31.14 - 30.33 = .81 was an incremental loss directly attributed to the SO.

    yeah, ex div hit on 3-17. we woulda realized that distribution regardless of SO. what we have to HOPE for is that capital raised results in additional revenue and profit so that dividends are increased or another special div is distributed.

    oh, by-the-by, i have radically increased my BDC position and now also hold BKCC (risky, as it may be somewhat top heavy) and FSC (positioned for the bounce) as well as MAIN and ARCC. i don't expect to see much in respect to capital gains but want the distributions between now and late June. i am rather bearish on the market as a whole...

    good luck to you.

  • nadsmis nadsmis Apr 7, 2015 5:08 PM Flag

    well, how is WY playing out for you? your yield must be improving since the PPS is still dropping - steadily. down 8.36% since i sold at 35.08. maybe you will hit break even in a few more months?

    lol....

  • Reply to

    Interesting Chart Pattern Developing

    by pb_harris4 Mar 27, 2015 4:59 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 7, 2015 5:28 PM Flag

    well kosmic, i'm sort of betting on you (in a sense). i threw down big time late today at 5.95 and again at 5.92. maybe the ole "catch a falling knife" cliche applies. was actually hoping for a dip and today looked appropriate. altho div and shareprice are proportionate, i wanted to be positioned ahead of ex-div date and a month prior to earnings rept as i anticipate a beat to previous Q1 of .20 and a beat to Q1 EPS consensus estimate of $.31

    altho i took a rather large position today on the dip, i am personally calling this a speculative position and hope TNK performs....

    we'lll know for sure in a month

  • Reply to

    unreal...

    by nadsmis Mar 25, 2015 12:07 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 8, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    i was trying to point out your focus on time frame of Mar 8 - Apr 6 as indicative of SO not impacting shareprice. i attempted to refute your time period to illustrate that the most relevant time was the very day after the SO announcement - when PPS dropped on high volume vs. you selecting Apr 6. Had you used Apr 7 or now Apr 8, your conclusion would have been different. i must not have made myself clear.

    we're beating this to death. apparently, regardless of immediate shareprice impact, some are going to defend the SO's simply because they seek confirmation for their investment strategies be those strategies sound or not.

    would i know in advance of an SO, i would sell hard - just like some did.

    bigger doesn't mean better as many believe. bigger is simply bigger.

  • nadsmis by nadsmis Apr 8, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    yesterday's beatdown brought in some buyers today pushing PPS up to over 6.02$ and sellers pounced driving shareprices right back down to 5.93$ near noon. fast. thinking TNK in overbought territory and equilibrium approximating 5.80$. when gains after a large dip disappear that fast, usually indicative of overbought. had expected the bounceback but not the quick selloff.

    the message is that buying in on the large beatdown yesterday meant there is probably little short term opportunity and that it will be all about the next earnings release come May 15. with today's action, appears i bought back in too soon and will suffer opportunity costs. TNK yield is pedstrian at best.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Looking for breakout

    by wlenaty Mar 25, 2015 11:36 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 8, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    you mean breakdown with short term target of 11.50$

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    lumber at 19 month low

    by nadsmis Feb 25, 2015 2:23 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 8, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    lol

  • Reply to

    A tug of war between the BULLS and BEARS

    by thewisejman Apr 8, 2015 1:43 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 8, 2015 2:33 PM Flag

    i thought FSC had hit its bottom at 7.24 but hadn't. still near 52 wk low of 6.80 from high of 10.20. floundering.

  • nadsmis nadsmis Apr 8, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    i agree sokol. bigger means bigger, not better. i don't like dilution either esp with SPO under market. dumb.

    i see some shareholders of MAIN seem to actually like SO's but thier reasoning is flawed and invalid. what is proven is that there is always a drop to PPS from high volume selloffs after SO announcements. always.

  • Reply to

    quick selloff

    by nadsmis Apr 8, 2015 12:42 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 9, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    down, down, down she goes. where she stops, nobody knows...

  • Reply to

    unreal...

    by nadsmis Mar 25, 2015 12:07 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 9, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    why do you continue to say i didn't listen to the CC? you are right but i read it. i don't intend to immediately react to CC's but rather choose to read and disseminate. if that's lazy, ok by me.

    why would a shareholder sell shares when an SO is announced? well, i wouldn't. why? because SO's are dilutive - pure and simple and share prices typically DROP on an SO announcement. which they DID. incidently, if you do research, you will find some BDC's actually buying back their shares. what do you think that usually does to shareprices when that's announced?

    also, i don't ridicule your bookish posts i discredit them. they are opinionated and invalid and totally pompous in nature. suppositions predicated on distorted "facts". your focus and fascination with NAV and NII, while those metrics are telling, is (IMO) misplaced. at the end of the day, it is all about making money whether it be capital gains or distributions and dividends. the focus is on creating wealth and if Mr. Market doesn't like a company, regardless of past performance and metrics - guess what? i will tell you that Mr. Market doesn't like SO's. but then you are smarter - right?

    why FSC? because i like to buy on bad news and sell on good news - unlike you. looks like a buy to me and i rather like the current 10.1% yield and i expect an SD as well - should i hold it another several months. we'll see.

    i just got the word from my acct today and despite all my attempts to reduce my exposure - i got pounded in taxes due to capital gains (many short term) and by distributions and dividends. i opt not to pay taxes during the year as i want to work with my money and not let ole Uncle Sam grab it until the 11th hour. $172k income and total state and federal taxes north of $42k. not bad for being retired with just a modest annuity (pension) and SS - huh smart guy?

  • Reply to

    Options

    by hgl12692529 Apr 7, 2015 10:31 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 10, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    well hgl, i don't know about you but my patience is beginning to fade with PLOW. DJI up nearly a 100 points and PLOW down 1.2% @ 3:00 p.m. EST. not good. only solace is trading is relatively light. not doing too hot on the TTC buys either but will wait on that position until after May 21st Q2 CC. afraid to hold PLOW thru their next CC as if they have a bad Q, PPS will drop. if the results are a beat, Janik may blow it again by saying not to expect those results again. ugh.

    hopefully there is a bounce to PLOW shareprice before May 4 CC.

    good luck to you....

  • Reply to

    A tight range for FSC

    by thewisejman Apr 10, 2015 3:26 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 13, 2015 11:58 AM Flag

    wisej,
    i hold a modest position (3.7% my stock portfolio) with AAPL and so try to keep abreast of all the fast news which surrounds them. i got a kick out of Raymond James analysts downgrading AAPL last week only to see AAPL go up in a down market day.
    Raymond James is (IMO) a crooked bunch. they upgraded MAIN Capital last year and a week later MAIN released a SO and PPS immediately plunged. RJames knew that would happen since it turned out they were contracted by MAIN to handle the secondary. they also knew what the effect would be to MAIN PPS due to dilution and typical selloff on SO news. undoubtably MAIN would not have hired them for that SO had RJames downgraded them. how is that for a conflict of interest? dirty creeps....

  • Reply to

    A tight range for FSC

    by thewisejman Apr 10, 2015 3:26 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 13, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    hi louis,
    the ex-div date offers no real incentive to buy or sell. the drop in PPS will be directly proportionate to the dividend. while the shareprice may go up or down, that won't incremental to price affected by the ex-div date. no advantage.

    however, IMO, FSC looks to be oversold ever since their last announcement to drop in dividends. to me, that makes it an opportunity and is why i bought in a couple weeks ago after the dust had settled.

    i consider FSC a buy whether it is before, on, or after ex-div date.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    is DHT a better buy than TNK at this time?

    by williamszxz Apr 12, 2015 12:13 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 14, 2015 6:29 PM Flag

    i imagine you selling your TNK holdings and then buying DHT. (based on your post)

    personally, i am going to free up a little moola to see if there is an over reaction to TNK post ex-div date. often there is more buying than selling post ex-div and any dip for TNK right now i think i will pounce.

  • Reply to

    unreal...

    by nadsmis Mar 25, 2015 12:07 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 14, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    i know you love MAIN but i think you're developing a crush on me too now. however, i gotta tell ya, i don't like stalkers.

    oh, by-the-by, equities often trade on sentiment vs. numerical metrics. oh, but were it so simple huh?. also, PPS typically reflects what analysts and investors believe is forthcoming with financial metrics vs. what has already occurred. i know you simply must be

    2015 Q1 ER scheduled for May 6th with earnings est of .50-.54 and estimate consensus at .52. now THAT is the prime metric and one i focus on most (as does Mr. Market). if a BDC beats estimates despite a lagging net asset value or NII, guess what typically occurrs?

    looking forward to the CC but, i will be lazy and read it. lol

    i know you only hold BDC's and then modestly so. however, since i am playing hard to get, follow these 2... TNK and MBT. i hold both and both are up next mo for ER. i look for both to beat - esp TNK. i am increasing both positions with distributions from BDC's. since you like following me, follow those.

    am seeing nice after hours buying with MAIN today. it's not me.

    have fun and be nice.

  • Reply to

    Jumping off position for May 8th

    by edsha28 Apr 14, 2015 12:35 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 15, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    i have to agree because that is just what i did. good luck to you tho.

  • Reply to

    lumber at 19 month low

    by nadsmis Feb 25, 2015 2:23 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 15, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    well, you should be concerned. trend is down for the last 3 consecutive months. i guess it would depend how you play WY but you could do much better than current 3% yield which doesn't begin to cover loss in capital. WY down 8.7% since i closed my position. in the meantime, consider your cost of lost opportunity by not having your funds creating wealth elsewhere. i can only guess that your investment is modest. if it was significant, you'd be concerned...

    jeez

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    losing patience (and $)

    by nadsmis Jan 29, 2015 3:12 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 15, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    rc,
    "With regard to my ARCC trade, how can you "recall" me selling it, when never mentioned it here before."

    does this refresh your selective memory? taken from your post on 10-25....

    Sentiment: Sell
    Reply to What is going on?!?! by baddrabbit222 •Oct 15, 2014 10:52 AM
    rc5717 • Oct 16, 2014 5:25 PM

    Nad,

    I held ARCC for many years. I have high regard for mgmt and love several of the components in their portfolio such as the SSLP & Ivy Hill. That said, I sold ARCC earlier this year because of my concerns over their divvy coverage from recurring income (NII).

    ARCC covered their divvy in Q1, but only because of an add'l $10mm divvy from Ivy Hill. Ivy Hill pays a regular $10mm quarterly divvy to ARCC which represents their recurring income from mgmt fees. The add'l $10mm was paid from realized capital gains. During the credit crisis Ivy Hill purchased distressed debt and has since exited those investments for nice gains. Without that add'l $10mm from Ivy Hill, ARCC would have fallen $0.03 short on their divvy coverage in Q1-14

    In Q2-14 there was no add'l divvy from Ivy Hill and ARCC's divvy coverage was $0.04 short.

    In 2013 ARCC received a total of $32.4mm in add'l divvies from Ivy Hill. If you back out the add'l divvies from Ivy Hill, ARCC's divvy coverage from NII isn't as good as it looks in the press releases.

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