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FLY Leasing Limited Message Board

nadsmis 201 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 11, 2014 4:36 PM Member since: Jun 23, 2009
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  • Reply to

    dead in the water

    by nadsmis Dec 11, 2014 2:52 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 11, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    maybe the PSEC debacle and resultant hit to the BDC ETF is having an effect.

  • Reply to

    dead in the water

    by nadsmis Dec 11, 2014 2:52 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 11, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    you got in at a good time and congrats to you. nice return. nonetheless, it is all about "what have you done for me lately?". since 9-30-12, the answer is "Nothing". yield gave a return and covered the capital gains loss. didn't cover what you would have made in the markets in general.

    BDC's not doing well. has the sun set on this sector? is that why we are seeing selloffs?

    let's hope for better days - soon. lol.

  • nadsmis nadsmis Dec 11, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    down down down she goes. where she stops, nobody knows.

  • no appreciation to share price since end of Sept 2012. running an IRR shows MAIN a marginal investment, at best, since that time. the BDC sector in general is not a shining star. altho we will see nice dividends this month, corresponding drop in PPS nullifies that cash. today is a bad sign as MAIN, and most other BDC's being sold off as the overall market bounces back from a string of bad trading days.

    nearly 80% of MAIN outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. that is very high and not surprising considering the Russell and S&P lack of exposure.

    anyone care to offer up any relevant info or opinions?

    not liking the trend here...

  • Reply to

    can't resist...

    by nadsmis Dec 10, 2014 11:48 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 11, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    me too. market recovering from selloff last few days and PLOW PPS vastly underperforming. expected a bounce back here today yet shares continue the slide.

    85.3% of outstanding shares owned by institutional investors. that's high. us individual investors guys have little or no impact on PPS so i don't believe it's a case of "weak hands".

    am still holding but may be some months before we see impact to acquisition bear fruit on earnings. trying to control my itchy trigger finger.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    can't resist...

    by nadsmis Dec 10, 2014 11:48 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 10, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    i shoulda resisted as the garbage continued to plummet to -5.6%. ugh

  • nadsmis by nadsmis Dec 10, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    down 3.18% today (at noon EST). had to buy in again and cost avg. can't resist this price and volume is light today. bought at 23.10 PPS. a bargain. (i think)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    You people owe me a congrats and thank you

    by tamcir Nov 26, 2014 4:38 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 9, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    we'll see. the jury is out. however, i increased my FB position again today. for right or for wrong, i put my money where my mouth is.

    i had thought to sit out december with a large cash position but, after today's early swoon, bought back in on all fronts other then taking out $32k for property taxes, prep for taxes on capital gains and to cover taxes on a years' worth of dividends.

    hope now for the best...

    good fortune to us all.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    bought into weakness....

    by nadsmis Dec 1, 2014 4:08 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 8, 2014 6:40 PM Flag

    i don't know what he is talking about and neither does he.

  • Reply to

    Zacks Upgrade

    by spartacus1896 Dec 4, 2014 7:25 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 4, 2014 5:31 PM Flag

    Sparty,

    you got that right.

    always worse tho when an analyst downgrades and then stock drops on that basis. that is just what happened to PLOW when Baird downgraded a few weeks ago. Baird's explanation to their downgrade was that PLOW was a risky investment due to the reliance on snow. needless to say, they were wrong.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • nadsmis by nadsmis Dec 4, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    ok, finished my selloff. all yours. between my selling, and your buying, made for an interesting trading day. fun to see the PPS chart climb, fall, climb, fall, climb fall.

    will watch to see if you buy anymore. gotta tread lightly due to such a small float.

    i've too much to chance to buy, hold and wait for your play.

    good luck to you. i am now just an interested observer.

  • i keep selling. if you are the one doing the buying, i am the one doing the selling (if you're watching this board). i am almost thru.

  • Reply to

    what happened to this garbage today???

    by nadsmis Oct 30, 2014 4:25 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 4, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    PLOW overall performance has been great but sure is volatile. historical volatility now at 28.5% with beta at 1.2. those are rather high.

    just trimmed my overall stock portolio just after the opening bell today. now have 37% in cash. i left PLOW position as is. am simply holding for now with expectation that they continue to beat YOY quarterly earnings and projections. anticipate PLOW to reap synergies on their last 2 acquisitions and believe EPS will improve and generally expect that to push the PPS.

    come late Dec, or early Jan '15, will buy back into market. historically (usually) Dec is often a down month as investors sell for tax purposes and Jan (all things being equal) is usually a strong market as investors take advantage of buying opportunities. generally, that works for me. at that time, depending on PLOW PPS performance between now and then, will most likely increase PLOW position.

    good fortune to you...

  • Reply to

    Ford Equity Valuation Rept...

    by nadsmis Dec 2, 2014 5:55 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 4, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    yeah, dontcha just love hindsight?

    trimmed overall stock portfolio just after market opened by 37%. didn't touch MAIN holdings. altho i don't like some of management's antics, i continue to have faith that MAIN will appreciate in the long run. also like the yield and want one BDC in my portfolio and consider MAIN to be best in class.

    in general, the market (as a whole), usually pulls back in December while investors sell off for tax considerations and usually (as a whole), January is up as investors seek buying opportunities. will buy back in in late Dec or early Jan '15. don't intend to either decrease of incr MAIN. i view MAIN as an income stock but don't use DRIP as i would rather determine when, and how, i reinvest dividends.

    good fortune to you...

  • Reply to

    what happened to this garbage today???

    by nadsmis Oct 30, 2014 4:25 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 3, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    you know what Buffet says... "Patience".

    my primary fault is an itchy trigger finger. nonetheless, i have 24 free trades to use in the next 3 weeks. i doubt i will tho but, if i do, will be profit taking and then reinvesting on a down day.

    historically, December is not a good month in the markets. January, all things being equal, is the best so altho i may sell some this month, i will be all again come January 2nd.

    Per CNBC... Historically, January is a very good month to invest. There is a phenomenon surrounding the stock market known as the January effect. According to CNBC, average returns in the month of January exceed those in the remainder of the year. The January effect may be caused by investors selling stocks in December for tax reasons and to raise money for the holidays, pushing prices lower and causing a stock buying spree in January

  • Reply to

    what happened to this garbage today???

    by nadsmis Oct 30, 2014 4:25 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 3, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    i hope it holds too. i wonder why PLOW PPS is so volatile. other than the jump on acquisition announcement, there seems to be a one or two day delay to news. hard to figure.

    would like to see an announcement next conf call of increase to dividend. it is warranted.

  • Reply to

    BUY baby buy

    by michaelmcmx Nov 6, 2014 10:05 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 3, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    check out KOSS. they eliminated their dividend months ago and Yahoo shows it at 13%. i continually get the message that Yahoo is temp unavailable and that their engineers are working on it. for months? their email is a joke too. they simply don't provide maintenance to their products.

  • just a quick snipet of Ford's Nov valuation report...

    Relative Valuation is
    VERY POSITIVE
    Main Street Capital Corp.'s operating earnings yiel
    d of 7.6% ranks above 86% of the other
    companies in the Ford universe of stocks,
    indicating that it is undervalued.

    at today's market close, looks like MAIN becomes just that much more undervalued (ugh). PPS down 1.7% in a strong day in the market. underperformed most other BDC's (that i track) in approx 23% heavier trading than avg. Dropped hard just before closing.

    TheStreet continues to rate MAIN a Buy.

    While i hope for good capital return, i am satisfied with MAIN as an Income stock providing the yield covers capital loss. however, that comes with the presumption that volatility is low and that i am not seeing. esp today.

    per Nov. Reuter's Rept...
    Because MAIN is in the Capital Markets industry, the PE and Price to Book ratios are the most appropriate valuation measures. The Price to Sales ratio is less instructive than the PE. Therefore MAIN seems fairly valued with a PE value of 13.849 that is inline with the Capital Markets industry median of 14.99.

    we're down nearly 12% from high of 35.72 last Feb.

    gotta be careful here.

  • Reply to

    Oil up $2, and PBR down 7%

    by stockmeisterl03 Dec 1, 2014 11:24 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 2, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    he has a right to his opinion. name calling is what's wrong.

  • Reply to

    BUY baby buy

    by michaelmcmx Nov 6, 2014 10:05 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 2, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    Mexico. isn't that somewhere in Houston?

    and i do agree with "You are mistaken to think that most of the people in Mexico want to come to the USA." no known cartel members want to set foot in the USA.

    and, not only is labor cheap there, so is life.

FLY
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