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Douglas Dynamics, Inc. Message Board

nadsmis 225 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Jun 23, 2009
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  • Reply to

    MTW waking up

    by jvkla Mar 24, 2015 8:58 AM

    good call....

  • Reply to

    closing UBFO position

    by nadsmis Jun 25, 2014 10:48 AM

    need to bump this one.

    buyer beware.....

  • interesting. Zacks upgrade to AAP while Raymond James just downgraded AAPL last week. IMO, Zack's is reputable but Raymond James are self serving crooks and worse than Goldman Sachs.

    am holding BKCC along with ARCC, FSC, and MAIN BDC's and a modest position in AAPL.

  • Reply to

    BDC sector may be the BEST sector to be

    by thewisejman Apr 17, 2015 12:55 PM

    wisejam,

    i am not too bullish on the market and Friday was a confirmation. i've took 25% off the table a month ago and put it into a real estate deal. safe harbor.

    within remaining stock portfolio, i've now 47% in BDC's in order to capitalize on yields - FSC, ARCC, BKCC and MAIN. while the BDC sector is frustrating since removal from S&P and Russell index, dust seems to have settled and sector stabilized. still, that is rather top heavy and a concern. sill in all, i agree that the lackluster BDC sector is a good place to park cash. they held up well Friday.

    in order to satisfy my trading itch, i've increased my position in TNK (short term, pedestrian yield, oversold equity, expect good ER) and opened another in MBT (speculative and short term on ruble/dollar ex rate).

    the remainder of stock portfolio to ride on PLOW and TTC as i expect them to also beat earnings forecast due to rough winter with their earnings out in a couple weeks.

    the remainder (modest position) in good ole AAPL. hoping for good sales reports on new watch and then exit quickly on the bounce.

    ah - the best laid plans of mice and men....

  • Reply to

    Earnings vs NII

    by rc5717 Apr 15, 2015 5:52 PM

    RC,

    your post is indicative of what you are - a pompous phony. you deny selling ARCC and, when confronted, you go back and delete them? doesn't surprise me.

    you are a pumper and perhaps a shill as well. no, you need to be exposed for what you are and your long winded and convoluted posts need to be confronted for what they are. misleading, invalid, and to the well informed - laughable. you try hard to appear the BDC genius by focusing on the micro and ignoring the macro. you can fool some of the people all the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time.

    anyone who has spent any time in business has seen charlatans such as yourself. people trying to stand taller on dead bodies, people distorting bottom lines by twisting numbers. that behavior always needs to be confronted wherever and whenever possible. your personal attacks are meaningless and your attempts to discredit are a joke.

    oh, by-the-by, it is obvious you take significant time in crafting your posts so you need to learn the proper use of "your" and "you're". it will help give credence when substance is lacking.

    your buddy,
    Nad

  • Reply to

    Options

    by hgl12692529 Apr 7, 2015 10:31 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 16, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    not really. i am quite sure our investment objectives are both about creating wealth. our paths differ in that you are probably more an investor than me. while 33% of my stock portfolio is about income stocks with a good yield (investments), another 33 50% is about growth stocks (trading) and the remainder is a combination of the 2. i rate PLOW as a combo.

    altho i appreciate the good yield, i expect the PPS to grow and will sell it in a heartbeat for good capital gains.

    your TTC play looks good at this time. their yield is modest and PLOW PPS has outperformed TTC. altho i continue to hold both, i will also liquidate TTC with a good bounce come 5-21 earnings release.

    what many don't seem to realize is the importance of selling as they are so focused on buying and holding. i try to turn my money and realize, and reinvest, profits. after all, we make nothing until we sell (other than dividends and distributions). personally, i am more frustrated with selling a position only to see it gain after. for me, that's worse than losing $ (emotionally).

    i do not set time frames either long or short term. i do try to limit losses and will sell if i perceive a trend in a position or a sector (such as energy, utilities, BDC's, et al). i don't sell on market performance but i do buy on that.

    that's my philosophy - for what it's worth.

    good fortune to you...

  • Reply to

    losing patience (and $)

    by nadsmis Jan 29, 2015 3:12 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 15, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    rc,
    "With regard to my ARCC trade, how can you "recall" me selling it, when never mentioned it here before."

    does this refresh your selective memory? taken from your post on 10-25....

    Sentiment: Sell
    Reply to What is going on?!?! by baddrabbit222 •Oct 15, 2014 10:52 AM
    rc5717 • Oct 16, 2014 5:25 PM

    Nad,

    I held ARCC for many years. I have high regard for mgmt and love several of the components in their portfolio such as the SSLP & Ivy Hill. That said, I sold ARCC earlier this year because of my concerns over their divvy coverage from recurring income (NII).

    ARCC covered their divvy in Q1, but only because of an add'l $10mm divvy from Ivy Hill. Ivy Hill pays a regular $10mm quarterly divvy to ARCC which represents their recurring income from mgmt fees. The add'l $10mm was paid from realized capital gains. During the credit crisis Ivy Hill purchased distressed debt and has since exited those investments for nice gains. Without that add'l $10mm from Ivy Hill, ARCC would have fallen $0.03 short on their divvy coverage in Q1-14

    In Q2-14 there was no add'l divvy from Ivy Hill and ARCC's divvy coverage was $0.04 short.

    In 2013 ARCC received a total of $32.4mm in add'l divvies from Ivy Hill. If you back out the add'l divvies from Ivy Hill, ARCC's divvy coverage from NII isn't as good as it looks in the press releases.

  • Reply to

    lumber at 19 month low

    by nadsmis Feb 25, 2015 2:23 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 15, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    well, you should be concerned. trend is down for the last 3 consecutive months. i guess it would depend how you play WY but you could do much better than current 3% yield which doesn't begin to cover loss in capital. WY down 8.7% since i closed my position. in the meantime, consider your cost of lost opportunity by not having your funds creating wealth elsewhere. i can only guess that your investment is modest. if it was significant, you'd be concerned...

    jeez

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Jumping off position for May 8th

    by edsha28 Apr 14, 2015 12:35 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 15, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    i have to agree because that is just what i did. good luck to you tho.

  • Reply to

    unreal...

    by nadsmis Mar 25, 2015 12:07 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 14, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    i know you love MAIN but i think you're developing a crush on me too now. however, i gotta tell ya, i don't like stalkers.

    oh, by-the-by, equities often trade on sentiment vs. numerical metrics. oh, but were it so simple huh?. also, PPS typically reflects what analysts and investors believe is forthcoming with financial metrics vs. what has already occurred. i know you simply must be

    2015 Q1 ER scheduled for May 6th with earnings est of .50-.54 and estimate consensus at .52. now THAT is the prime metric and one i focus on most (as does Mr. Market). if a BDC beats estimates despite a lagging net asset value or NII, guess what typically occurrs?

    looking forward to the CC but, i will be lazy and read it. lol

    i know you only hold BDC's and then modestly so. however, since i am playing hard to get, follow these 2... TNK and MBT. i hold both and both are up next mo for ER. i look for both to beat - esp TNK. i am increasing both positions with distributions from BDC's. since you like following me, follow those.

    am seeing nice after hours buying with MAIN today. it's not me.

    have fun and be nice.

  • Reply to

    is DHT a better buy than TNK at this time?

    by williamszxz Apr 12, 2015 12:13 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 14, 2015 6:29 PM Flag

    i imagine you selling your TNK holdings and then buying DHT. (based on your post)

    personally, i am going to free up a little moola to see if there is an over reaction to TNK post ex-div date. often there is more buying than selling post ex-div and any dip for TNK right now i think i will pounce.

  • Reply to

    A tight range for FSC

    by thewisejman Apr 10, 2015 3:26 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 13, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    hi louis,
    the ex-div date offers no real incentive to buy or sell. the drop in PPS will be directly proportionate to the dividend. while the shareprice may go up or down, that won't incremental to price affected by the ex-div date. no advantage.

    however, IMO, FSC looks to be oversold ever since their last announcement to drop in dividends. to me, that makes it an opportunity and is why i bought in a couple weeks ago after the dust had settled.

    i consider FSC a buy whether it is before, on, or after ex-div date.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A tight range for FSC

    by thewisejman Apr 10, 2015 3:26 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 13, 2015 11:58 AM Flag

    wisej,
    i hold a modest position (3.7% my stock portfolio) with AAPL and so try to keep abreast of all the fast news which surrounds them. i got a kick out of Raymond James analysts downgrading AAPL last week only to see AAPL go up in a down market day.
    Raymond James is (IMO) a crooked bunch. they upgraded MAIN Capital last year and a week later MAIN released a SO and PPS immediately plunged. RJames knew that would happen since it turned out they were contracted by MAIN to handle the secondary. they also knew what the effect would be to MAIN PPS due to dilution and typical selloff on SO news. undoubtably MAIN would not have hired them for that SO had RJames downgraded them. how is that for a conflict of interest? dirty creeps....

  • Reply to

    Options

    by hgl12692529 Apr 7, 2015 10:31 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 10, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    well hgl, i don't know about you but my patience is beginning to fade with PLOW. DJI up nearly a 100 points and PLOW down 1.2% @ 3:00 p.m. EST. not good. only solace is trading is relatively light. not doing too hot on the TTC buys either but will wait on that position until after May 21st Q2 CC. afraid to hold PLOW thru their next CC as if they have a bad Q, PPS will drop. if the results are a beat, Janik may blow it again by saying not to expect those results again. ugh.

    hopefully there is a bounce to PLOW shareprice before May 4 CC.

    good luck to you....

  • Reply to

    unreal...

    by nadsmis Mar 25, 2015 12:07 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 9, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    why do you continue to say i didn't listen to the CC? you are right but i read it. i don't intend to immediately react to CC's but rather choose to read and disseminate. if that's lazy, ok by me.

    why would a shareholder sell shares when an SO is announced? well, i wouldn't. why? because SO's are dilutive - pure and simple and share prices typically DROP on an SO announcement. which they DID. incidently, if you do research, you will find some BDC's actually buying back their shares. what do you think that usually does to shareprices when that's announced?

    also, i don't ridicule your bookish posts i discredit them. they are opinionated and invalid and totally pompous in nature. suppositions predicated on distorted "facts". your focus and fascination with NAV and NII, while those metrics are telling, is (IMO) misplaced. at the end of the day, it is all about making money whether it be capital gains or distributions and dividends. the focus is on creating wealth and if Mr. Market doesn't like a company, regardless of past performance and metrics - guess what? i will tell you that Mr. Market doesn't like SO's. but then you are smarter - right?

    why FSC? because i like to buy on bad news and sell on good news - unlike you. looks like a buy to me and i rather like the current 10.1% yield and i expect an SD as well - should i hold it another several months. we'll see.

    i just got the word from my acct today and despite all my attempts to reduce my exposure - i got pounded in taxes due to capital gains (many short term) and by distributions and dividends. i opt not to pay taxes during the year as i want to work with my money and not let ole Uncle Sam grab it until the 11th hour. $172k income and total state and federal taxes north of $42k. not bad for being retired with just a modest annuity (pension) and SS - huh smart guy?

  • Reply to

    quick selloff

    by nadsmis Apr 8, 2015 12:42 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 9, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    down, down, down she goes. where she stops, nobody knows...

  • nadsmis nadsmis Apr 8, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    i agree sokol. bigger means bigger, not better. i don't like dilution either esp with SPO under market. dumb.

    i see some shareholders of MAIN seem to actually like SO's but thier reasoning is flawed and invalid. what is proven is that there is always a drop to PPS from high volume selloffs after SO announcements. always.

  • Reply to

    A tug of war between the BULLS and BEARS

    by thewisejman Apr 8, 2015 1:43 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 8, 2015 2:33 PM Flag

    i thought FSC had hit its bottom at 7.24 but hadn't. still near 52 wk low of 6.80 from high of 10.20. floundering.

  • Reply to

    lumber at 19 month low

    by nadsmis Feb 25, 2015 2:23 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 8, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    lol

  • Reply to

    Looking for breakout

    by wlenaty Mar 25, 2015 11:36 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Apr 8, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    you mean breakdown with short term target of 11.50$

    Sentiment: Sell

PLOW
22.34-0.63(-2.74%)Apr 17 4:02 PMEDT