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Douglas Dynamics, Inc. Message Board

nadsmis 212 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Jun 23, 2009
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  • your post was correct with 1 item - IMO.

    short term limits losses. you don't ride positions down as with all energy and oil stocks. you draw a limit and trade accordingly. you ring the cash register and realize profits. altho i have a time frame in mind for FSC, should capital losses hit 15%, i'm out regardless.

    i do agree with one thing, never go all-in or all-out. that is trying too much to time the market and opportunity costs will prevail.

  • mr. phil,

    jeez, i see your post got hit with 9 thumbs down in 13 hrs. odd in that i thought it made good sense. i thumbed up you. lol.

    IMO, you are on the right path with where you expect to be come June 1. allows you to take advantage if market gets hit. that's what i intend to do as well.

    i also totally relate to your mention of boredom. tough to be on the sidelines and just observing the action instead of participating. especially tough for me as i've and itchy trigger finger. my trades cost 9.90$ ea with Ameritrade and just last year spent 1800$ playing around.

    in order to satisfy my taste for trading, i am buying a couple speculative stocks for kicks. not a lot of moola invested but enough to stay active and involved while letting the balance ride.

    most posters on these Yahoo finance boards are investors while my trading volume classifies me as a trader. those investment posters don't understand that philosphy and pan me constantly - esp the ultra conservatives in BDC's. i try to turn my money and reinvest. BDC's are my income stocks vs. growth. still, they can be frustrating with their penchant for SO's and stock distributions under cutting share price and causing dilution.

    well, here's to you... Good luck.

  • nadsmis nadsmis Mar 31, 2015 7:07 PM Flag

    personally, i too feel the market is due for a correction (and i've only begun to feel this way for the past 3 wks). i've cashed out a bit myself and put 30% my stock portfolio into a conservative low risk real estate venture. that venture will be short term and i will take that principle back out in 3-4 months. my expectation is that the Fed will have begun to make their move on interest rates, the market will over react, and good buys will abound.

    in addition to cashing out 30%, i've moved a tidy sum into BDC's spreading it around beteen ARCC, MAIN and FSC (i think FSC is now way oversold). that too i expect to last for short term and will sell off the bulk and go after good buys. utilities in particular will be hit hard as well as REIT's and MLP's. while i wait for that time frame i will realize the good BDC yields of 90% their profits even tho expect to suffer some losses thru drop in share prices.

    just my humble thoughts....

    nice to see BDC's holding up in today's down market while energy and oil stocks took another beating. utilities fared poorly as well. tech stocks like AAPL and FB got hurt too. other than the high tech hits, the action the past 3 weeks have confirmed my hopothesis (so far). lol

  • Reply to

    Be prepared to buy Major oil stocks

    by thewisejman Mar 31, 2015 4:53 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 31, 2015 6:52 PM Flag


    true that.

    we know that even if U.S. and Iran broker a nuclear deal, benefits will be limited. the glut is just too huge.

    we also know that the volatile mideast will continue to heat up now and again.

    Russia and Saudi Arabia will continue to pump all out as Russia must and the Saudis can (as they continue to hold on to market share).

    even as the middle east unrest will drive up oil prices, the U.S. producers who have cut back will simply re-enter the business and will again take oil back down until equilibrium is reached with supply and demand.

    while i don't envision oil remaining at less than 50$ bbl for too much longer, i don't think crude will ever again hit 80$ bbl for decades to come. there is now a "new normal" for oil and that will change the industry that was riding too high for too long forever.

    in the meantime, alternative energy continues on and the biggest oil consumer of all (automobiles) will continue to improve on MPG thereby reducing demand.

    energy stocks, esp oil related, are losers and will continue to be. the bet is on high tech - AAPL, FB and the like.

  • Reply to

    PM with a 5.28% yield is just CHEAP

    by thewisejman Mar 31, 2015 12:39 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 31, 2015 6:39 PM Flag

    i liquidated a position i held in MO Altria a few weeks ago. i got out @ 55.38$ and today it closed @ 50.02$ and shows a definate trend. MO yield = 3.75%.

    in the UK, cigarette packaging will no longer be able to differentiate between brands and packs will be covered with warnings. mayhaps that could occur in the U.S. as folks there love to tell others what they can and can't do. big gov't. could this legislation in the UK have had an affect on tobacco stocks?

    incidently, 20 years ago, Canada reduced their high taxation on tobacco due to bootlegging from the U.S. Canada also found that they were having to support more elderly people living longer and that hurt thier health system monetarily. Canada found that sooner or later everyone dies and their health system paid for those illnesses instead of cancer illnesses. they were getting clobbered with carrying older people longer.

    altho i don't smoke, i am not "holier than thou" and believe people oughta be able to indulge whether it be tobacco or pot. i've no issue with investing in (should i consider it sound) tobacco, gambling, alcohol or even pot producing enterprises. obviously, all those entities contribute billions/year to respective gov'ts. that helps keep my taxes down. esp the break on property tax due to the lotto.

    just sayin'....

  • while TTC is trading today at a 52-week high, this position has long legs. the next earnings report come May 21st oughta be stellar as Toro should have record revenue due to snow outs across eastern seaboard and midwest. couple the increased sales to core business with the results from the Boss purchase and TTC should fly high. mayhaps it may be time for the BOD to consider a dividend increase to keep yield on par with PPS increase?

  • Reply to


    by nadsmis Mar 25, 2015 12:07 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 30, 2015 12:45 PM Flag


    i hold MAIN primarily for its good track record of distributions. it provides me with a tidy income stream that i can depend upon while i draw on monthly social security benefits and annuity payments. unfortunately, over the past 1 year, MAIN's PPS performance has sorely lagged behind the Dow and the distributions simply haven't made up for that disparity. couple that with opportunity costs and, you are right, i'd have done better somewhere else. anyone would have - including you. ah, but don't we just hindsight. fortunately for me, MAIN and my other BDC' holdings account for only about 27% my stock portfolio.

    despite all your obsuscation, i wish you and all Long holders of MAIN financial success.

    now go about trying to be more civil.


    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to


    by nadsmis Mar 25, 2015 12:07 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 25, 2015 7:32 PM Flag

    i was trying to respond to our pumper RC but came out as a "New Topic".

    you are probably correct about Foster but, i want him worried. i am not too dismayed by MAIN PPS as of late. i try to treat it as an Income Stock vs. Growth Stock. always nice to get both tho.

    don't sign me up for a proponent of SO's. altho by definition BDS's must return 90% of profit to shareholders, can't they reduce debt or invest earnings by granting new loans?

  • nadsmis by nadsmis Mar 25, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    wow. what a narrative.

    increase in dividends cannot be tied to secondaries. however, drop in shareprice sure can be and is typical of SO's and the dilutitive effect it has.

    here is a definition of "dilutitive" for you rc,
    Stock dilution is an economic phenomenon resulting from the issue of additional common shares by a company. This increase in the number of shares outstanding can result from a primary market offering. This dilution can shift fundamental positions of the stock such as ownership percentage, voting control, earnings per share, and the value of individual shares.

    i know how you love to pump but come on, be real. were i to know prior to a secondary occurring, i would dump. it is obvious that many dump just after the announcement. quite frankly, as another poster pointed out previously, the effect to PPS was not as bad as i thought it would have been. thank goodness.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The market is waiting for an excuse to tank?

    by thewisejman Mar 24, 2015 11:23 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 24, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    SCO dropping hard after the bell today. down over a point in after hrs trading....
    stay on top of that one.
    i am holding MAIN and ARCC BDC's and considering buying BKCC. BKCC continues on an a sustained up trend and outperforming all other BDC's as well as market in general.
    other than that i will continue to hold other positions as well as cash position of 40% my equity portfolio. i too am finally coming to believe that there may be a market correction. also think as we near June, Fed will raise rates and am watching all utilities getting hit. they will get hit harder and represent some real buys. am keeping the cash position for that eventuality.
    my thought is to let run what i currently hold (other than perhaps buying BKCC) and then letting the market show itself over next few months. will definately buy back in but not until summer.

    good luck...

  • Reply to

    PLOW expectations

    by nadsmis Mar 18, 2015 8:40 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 23, 2015 12:18 PM Flag

    you asked, i told you. i also agree PLOW yield is good but still pedestrian. with that great year, and Q, would have been nice to see dividends raised higher.

    i still hold PLOW as i consider it undervalued. i am also a bit wealthier after i bought into the dip from the ER and then took profit.

    i am also glad i hedged PLOW with TTC. both are in the snow business and i also consider TTC to be undervalued, perhaps oversold. PLOW distributes a better dividend but is very volatile and unpredictable and subsequently beta is high. that is partially due to being a small cap stock with smaller float.

    counting on TTC to have a great earnings report come May just as i expect PLOW to also have a good report come May 4 for 2015 Q1. am just leery of increasing PLOW position as i do not trust what Janik may say. he could kill it again.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    PLOW expectations

    by nadsmis Mar 18, 2015 8:40 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 20, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    here is a short list for you then...
    MAIN = 6.80%
    ARCC = 8.95%
    UHT = 4.58%
    i keep those 3 as long-term income stocks. sold off higher yield stocks as they were energy stocks or positions i closed in order to do some profit taking like FLY @ 6.70% and SIX @ 4.83%. got it?

    i sold off 50% of PLOW a couple days ago.

    you've got a big mouth.

  • nadsmis by nadsmis Mar 19, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    enough is enough. all energy, and energy related industries, are going to continue to get beaten down. altho NSH is a tier 2 oil related industry, they will get hurt right along with tier 1 oil producers.

    good luck....

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • nadsmis by nadsmis Mar 19, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    closed this position. have seen enough. all energy, and energy related industries, are going to continue to take a beating as the oil glut continues - and it will. oil production already being curtailed and cut back as the Saudis continue to produce and increase their market share.

    IMO TNK, despite good earnings, will slide along with oil producers. yield is pedestrian at best and not enough to keep shareholders patient. This market condition will prevail for many months. maybe years. if oil prices rise, producers will begin to pump thereby again lowering oil prices. TNK is a tier 2 oil related concern. they will slide right along with oil.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Good news for TNK...

    by daltomah Mar 16, 2015 10:51 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 19, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    you're a die hard pumper. pure and simple. TNK getting clobbered again. wonder when you will face facts. energy, and all related industries are simply out of favor.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Facing the facts!

    by joelindell86 Mar 14, 2015 11:03 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 19, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    you do when the cost to feed and house is more than what you get for the milk. you slaughter and sell the meat. No different than yield not beginning to cover the drop in PPS.

    ETP has hit my sell point and i am out. have seen enough and don't see anything that indicates a reversal of continous bleeding.

    may buy back if the energy sector begins to come around. won't be anytime soon.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • during last earnings release CC, Janik expressed concern that 2015 may not be as good as 2014 which immediately drove down PPS. today's market surged after Janet Yellan's statements on Fed interest rate. DJI was up 1.27% while PLOW closed up 1.32%. IMO, appears as if shareprice should now pretty much move with the market until next earnings release on May 4 for Q1 2015.
    doesn't look like shareholders should expect PPS to deviate too much from market performance. in other words, no capital appreciation deviation from overall market NYSE. $.89 dividend equates to 3.8% yield @ today's close of $23.16. that is pedestrian at best.
    with yield of 3.8, and little upside opportunity to PPS, looks like PLOW is going to tread water for next couple months.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    ARCC wants to issue shares

    by d.jamgochian Mar 13, 2015 10:29 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 18, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    total meaningless speculation. why do you do that?

  • Reply to

    buffet bought GE back in 06 for $34

    by aud802009 Mar 16, 2015 10:36 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 18, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    ah so. chop chop

  • Reply to

    Facing the facts!

    by joelindell86 Mar 14, 2015 11:03 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 17, 2015 9:28 PM Flag

    excellent post. on target, valid, relevant.
    don't get tired of posting. i value your commentary.
    good luck.

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