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Douglas Dynamics, Inc. Message Board

nadsmis 130 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 26, 2015 3:37 PM Member since: Jun 23, 2009
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  • let's face it, MAIN is getting clobbered again and underperforming an ugly market and underperforming BDC sector. this is not oil related.

    several factors appear to be affecting MAIN and other BDC's. the SO was ill advised and a bad move. PPS never recovered. the removal of BDC's from the Russell and SPI indexes continues to hurt as many institutional buyers focus there. today volume is heavy and it is heavy selling. While other BDC's are getting hit, they don't appear to be taking it as bad as MAIN has (ARCC, BKCC, PSEC).

    am wondering if there is a lack of confidence in management. i know i soured on the BOD a bit after the SO.

    not seeing any tangible news on MAIN that would explain this beatdown. thoughts?

  • as posted on 12-24, i reduced PLOW position by 75% @ 21.73 PS. not that i have fared all that well. took proceeds and built up AAPL position. the plan is to (hopefully) see a good earnings rept to AAPL later this month, reap the proceeds and reinvest in PLOW ahead of Feb earnings rept - which should be good.

    while i am not surprised to see PLOW flounder ahead of Feb earnings rept, i am very surprised at the beating the share price has taken. the winter is turning out to be brutal again and snow is prevalent. that used to drive shareprice but not now. today volume is heavy and it is mostly selling and down over 4.6%. this stock is very volatile.

    nonetheless, financial metrics are very solid here. earnings are good and yield is great. acquistions are a good fit and Henderson should provide additional earnings and contribute to bottom line. the shellacking oil and oil related stocks should not spill over into PLOW but am guessing institutional buyers are selling on general overall market softness. PLOW is not an exporter and hence a weak Europe and China should have little effect. you would think PLOW would be a good shelter. perplexing.

    would sure like to see the BOD increase the dividend come Feb. either that or they pay Uncle Sam.

    looks like a Strong Buy to me leading up to earnings report. good time to buy.... IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • since 12-16, FLY PPS has performed well. in today's market crash, FLY up currently over 1.6% (@13.35). this little run gets some legs to it and we have a trend going. the yield coupled with these capital gains gives me some confidence that this is a position that is finally going to begin performing as its fundamentals suggest it should. let's rock and roll.....!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    dead in the water

    by nadsmis Dec 11, 2014 2:52 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Jan 5, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    hey pumper.. still helping me follow FLY? today MAIN being hammered again and performing worse than the slumping market. down nearly 2% at the moment so your post of MAIN hitting bottom on 12-12 looks ridiculous. oh, that's right, you threw FLY performance around. at the moment FLY is up 1.21% while MAIN sinks. by-the-by, FLY yield is at 7.2%.

    you've a propensity of picking and choosing my posts when i've gone on record making buys and sells and picking and choosing them to discredit me. you've taken innumerable cheap shots. now, how about you going on record with your trades so we can observe your performance?

    i posted trimming MAIN last week and it looks like a good move. i increased FLY position and that was good. you? i can only imagine.....

  • Reply to

    dead in the water

    by nadsmis Dec 11, 2014 2:52 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 31, 2014 6:17 PM Flag

    ah, you ole pompous pumper you. lol. i've already answered the institutional investment percentage. you beat a dead horse once too often. also, luck as in the markets is for the uninformed or misinformed and evens out over time.

    your focus is BDS's and you've been whacked. don't continue to berate those who don't endorse your BDS positions. be happy for them.

    i wish you better fortunes next year and hope the BDC market begins to regain lost ground. as for FLY thanks for following me. it will do you some good. track AAPL, WEN, and a smattering of utilities for me too.

  • Reply to

    dead in the water

    by nadsmis Dec 11, 2014 2:52 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 31, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    thx but i wouldn't be concerned about others' thinking. as stated, i AM considering yield. capital loss at double digits and dividends don't cover it.

    yep, i did do some trimming and the capital loss to MAIN offset other capital gains i accumulated as well as dividends that will be taxed.

    keep that head in the sand tho...

  • Reply to

    dead in the water

    by nadsmis Dec 11, 2014 2:52 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 29, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    well Mr. Pumper, at 29.31, MAIN down about 10.5% YTD (excluding dividends). ouch. in an up market too. rc, this is just one reason i carry a broad portfolio and use the DJI as my benchmark. diversification helps minimize these type of losses. as i am sure you are aware, BDC's (your specialty), have been taking an awful pounding, similar to oil and oil related businesses. and no, i do not believe the recent collapse of oil has contributed to the poor performance of the BDC market sector.

    at this time, i have to make a serious decision to sell off some of my MAIN holdings (my only remaining BDC) in order to lock in an offset to yearly untaxed dividend and other capital gains. i would rather have your tax bill for 2014.

  • Reply to

    Down again???

    by dmbinhburg Dec 22, 2014 4:08 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 24, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    mainman,
    nearly impossible to time the market and same goes for individual stocks. there are factors that give an individual trader opportunities tho.
    IMO, market may correct 5 - 10% but i believe fallout should be less with FLY would that occur. by the same token, i believe FLY will outperform in an up market. both eventualities are independent of yield.
    the ebola scare hit all airlines hard and all airline related businesses. FLY was no exception. while airline stocks have since prospered due to lower fuel costs, AYR has improved but FLY has not. we've not made up lost ground.
    as we all know, fundamentals are great for FLY. prospects are also very positive. taking all this into consideration, FLY is a strong buy (buy low, sell high)
    unfortunately for me, my timing has been poor these last few weeks and i am running my last FLY purchase at a 7.08% capital loss. while dividends cover that capital loss, i suffer from opportunity costs.
    today's little bounce was nice and FLY outperformed the markets and AYR. that is just how i believe it oughta be and how, in general, i think matters will play out. we shall see.
    now, on to my Christmas duties.
    Happy holidays to all and, as Spock said, "Live long and prosper."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    stock

    by tankersailor1 Dec 24, 2014 12:08 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 24, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    agreed. i can't believe the poor negotiations and poor guidance BP has received and paid for.

  • Reply to

    WHY IS THIS

    by zbgb952 Nov 5, 2014 2:45 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 24, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    lol. well, my MBA tells me PLOW gets softer before getting better. long term looks good and PLOW should reap benefits of synergy and additional revenue from acquisition but we most likely won't see that benefit until Q4 earnings report early Feb.

    to that end, i sold off 75% of my holdings this morning and will sit it out until late January.

    good luck...

  • Reply to

    WHY IS THIS

    by zbgb952 Nov 5, 2014 2:45 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 23, 2014 5:08 PM Flag

    hgl,
    PLOW down about 6% from 11-10. what does your GED (or educated wife) tell you?

  • Reply to

    Down again???

    by dmbinhburg Dec 22, 2014 4:08 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 23, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    dmbin,
    i've bought and sold FLY at least 5 times. my last buy was $14 PPS and hence i am down 7.9% making FLY the poorest performer in my stock portfolio.
    True, the yield is terrific. The P/E is attractive. The beta = .9 (which is quite good). 55.3% of outstanding shares are owned by institutional buyers (just right). short interest is 2.18% (relatively low). current quarter earnings estimates have risen from 31 cents per share to 34 cents per share, while current year estimates have risen from $1.13 per share to $1.31 per share. So, IMO, the fundamentals are great which have kept me returning on dips only to have the dips continue with no bottom in sight. current PPS on the low side of 52 week avg range of approx 11 - 17.
    This position befuddles me like no other. IMO, i attribute the poor shareprice performance to the market disliking it being externally managed as well as not winning shareholders back after a stupid SO. the air was let out of CEO and BOD balloon and is still quite deflated.
    i track AYR (a competitor of sorts) and see them trading at nearly a 52 week high.
    if you ask me, FLY is very oversold and over ripe for a bounce. my target is 17 and i should be relatively patient but may very well take my losses to help offset a hefty tax beating come next April. just that my timing lately has been rather poor as i have been underperforming the DJI for the past 5 weeks. emotionally that sometimes makes me feel worse than making money in a down market. lol.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    dead in the water

    by nadsmis Dec 11, 2014 2:52 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 22, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    well folks (as rc says), MAIN down 8.84% YTD at today's close of 29.80 PPS. sorry, irrefutable. for sake of comparison, at the bell today, DJI up 8.34% YTD. again sorry but, irrefutable. hope this pony gets some legs soon. yield not covering opportunity costs. actually, not covering a simple YTD money market return.

  • Reply to

    Holding Leveraged Stock Question

    by scrubsmke Dec 18, 2014 10:04 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 19, 2014 8:03 PM Flag

    yes but why would you want to?

  • Reply to

    Now have 2 new knees.

    by airlease2000 Dec 16, 2014 4:31 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 19, 2014 7:30 PM Flag

    "FLY has acquired 22 newer aircraft this year, while divesting of older models, which is transforming our fleet and driving strong growth in our lease revenues," said Colm Barrington, CEO of FLY. "For two consecutive years, FLY has grown its fleet by 15% or more, while at the same time returning capital to shareholders with its attractive quarterly dividend. With a strong balance sheet and a nimble strategy that allows us to act quickly to take advantage of opportunities in the market, FLY is in an excellent position to continue delivering both strong growth and income to its shareholders."

  • nadsmis nadsmis Dec 19, 2014 7:25 PM Flag

    hey, i like this post. lol.

  • Reply to

    generator sales

    by vixstox Nov 19, 2014 11:41 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 19, 2014 7:03 PM Flag

    Hondas

  • Reply to

    UN to buy CUBA 1 Million Generac's

    by zzgamer69 Dec 17, 2014 4:26 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 19, 2014 7:01 PM Flag

    he meant Kohler

  • Reply to

    Bank of America ML Upgrade

    by pb_harris4 Dec 19, 2014 10:33 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 19, 2014 7:00 PM Flag

    well said dj. i closed my TNK at 3.92 PPS some months ago but always follow positions i closed to see if i made the right move. so far, with TNK, i haven't. too volatile and speculative for my tastes. tell you what tho, i will do some DD with CPLP and GASS. my only energy stock is ETP and they are simply pipe line people.

    gl...

  • Reply to

    Now have 2 new knees.

    by airlease2000 Dec 16, 2014 4:31 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Dec 18, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    Air - ditto to tthemainman post. gotta get your knees done, no better time than winter.

PLOW
20.54-0.08(-0.39%)Jan 27 4:02 PMEST

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