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Douglas Dynamics, Inc. Message Board

nadsmis 212 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 6:48 PM Member since: Jun 23, 2009
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  • you've probably all seen the pasted blurb below. nonetheless, i dropped it in anyway.

    as for a poster who mentioned that ole beat down "under promise, over deliver" rhetoric - that's hogwash. ALL publicly traded companies need CEO and COB to be forthright with shareholders at all times. that is their duty. any CC i listen to, and suspect that garbage is going on, i'm out. shareholders typically want someone they can believe. institutional buyers certainly do and they own 58.6% of all outstanding shares.

    you know, the more bashing we hear, the more loud mouthed Shorts become, the more secure i feel with my investment.

    here's the blurb...
    May 30: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLF) has seen solid insider buying, and the chief executive continued the buying spree. Lourenco Goncalves bought a block of 216,700 shares at prices ranging from $5.00 to $5.20. The total purchase came to $1.1 million. Cliffs Natural Resources is a mining and natural resources company that produces iron ore and metallurgical coal, and it has struggled mightily over the past few years. This may be a very good sign for investors. Shares ended trading on Friday at $5.31, so a good buy indeed.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I am Tired of Defending CLF....

    by vipinkot47 Jun 1, 2015 11:46 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Jun 1, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    i understand your frustration but, IMO, this is not the time to sell CLF. i owned CLF a few years ago but got out before the beatdown. i kept CLF on my watch list as i do all equities i liquidated and track them as closely as i track my current holdings.
    IMO, CLF and the entire mining sector is under valued now and represents a buying opportunity. i bought back into CLF and cost basis is $5.20 PPS. i consider CLF to be speculative but believe downside risk to be relatively minimal. i also believe any positive news, such as selling mines, reducing debt, even experiencing a status quo to earnings will be a great catalyst to share price and a run up will occur. with upside potential remaining coiled, this is an equity i want to hold and simply ride out until any type positive news comes out.
    down from $16 in August is a huge huge hit. altho my one hard and fast rule is to always sell when anything is down 15% from cost basis, were i to have ignored that and held, i would now continue to hold. quite frankly, i would be buying and reduce my cost basis.
    true that new management should be given only a 6-month honeymoon but not only did CLF have huge problems, so does the whole sector not too dissimilar from that of the energy and oil sectors. the difference is that the mining industry, and iron in particular, has a better opportunity to turn around.
    watch the insider trading here. can usually be a telling statistic.
    as my deceased friend used to say, "Live long and prosper".

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    this stock is a real mess ...

    by bronxrealtyco Jun 1, 2015 10:13 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Jun 1, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    oops. i forgot to add, market is rebounding nicely today and dividend income is good. be happy....

  • Reply to

    this stock is a real mess ...

    by bronxrealtyco Jun 1, 2015 10:13 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Jun 1, 2015 12:24 PM Flag

    you live in the past. markets are forward looking. you don't understand that. you simply pump the "past".

    people read these boards are more interested in what an equity might do, they know the past performance.

    jeez, what are you going to be like after you lose another 20%?

    take a chill pill Gladys.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    bad news for kosmiccharly...

    by nadsmis May 28, 2015 11:59 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Jun 1, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    kudos. most investors have more patience than i. it's that trading mentality. i remain patient on high yield income stocks with low beta and moderate volatility. i am naturally impatient on short term trades with speculative holdings.

    i put TNK holdings somewhere in the middle despite the big bumps and high beta.

    overall stock portfolio, since 2009, my returns including dividends and distributions equate to an approximate 87% gain. not boasting as nearly anyone who threw down in the markets then, and was appropriately diversified, realized those gains.

    you've done very well with TNK and your patience has been rewarded. i hope your success has just begun.

  • Reply to

    this stock is a real mess ...

    by bronxrealtyco Jun 1, 2015 10:13 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Jun 1, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    lol. testy? i guess i would be too were i still holding.

    you need to ring the register. you've lost 20% since my sell. you gotta turn your money.

    you're great with the insults but not with the play.

    i don't believe your cost basis anyway. baloney.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    this stock is a real mess ...

    by bronxrealtyco Jun 1, 2015 10:13 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Jun 1, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    yep. time to cut and run. i have been posting that since closing my position at 5.17 PPS. there is nothing to keep shareholders short term as losses to shareprice continue to mount. long term? no dividends and poor earnings outlook shouldn't keep you patient. it isn't what you buy so much as when you sell. that's the trick. don't miss out on other opportunities. limit the losses or hopefully realize gains.

    don't go down with the ship like that ymomma nut. JMO

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    bad news for kosmiccharly...

    by nadsmis May 28, 2015 11:59 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 29, 2015 5:42 PM Flag

    individual investors (maybe 25%) will trade and invest on tanker rates. institutional investors won't. they trade on the fundamentals and evaluations and own 47.7% of TNK outstanding shares. Still in all, 25% of 50% is 12.5% and that is a lot of action hence the very high beta and bumpy rode. actually more like a roller coaster.

  • Reply to

    they need to learn thier lesson .

    by bronxrealtyco May 28, 2015 1:31 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 28, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    idiot? i closed MIFI position at 5.17 PPS. lol.

  • Reply to

    Action today (Wednesday)

    by edsha28 May 27, 2015 4:35 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 28, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    i was just goofing around. i too think we oughta see a rebound tomorrow. FLY is still a "Buy" in my book and i also think something may be in the wind. don't think it's another SO tho. no filings.

    P/E (TTM) at 12.14 with industry at 18.68
    Price/sales at 1.63 with industry at 1.81
    Price/Book (MRQ) at .87x with industry at 3.59x

    those evaluations are screaming BUY which, despite my reservations on PPS performance, pushed me back in with cost basis at $6.18 which means i'm not doing too well. that yield sure is pretty tho.


    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Action today (Wednesday)

    by edsha28 May 27, 2015 4:35 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 28, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    it dumped today tho (Thursday). someone took a day off yesterday.

  • Reply to

    Invivo and GCI Health

    by andymann7464 May 27, 2015 10:51 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 28, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    look at the posting history of this woman.

  • Reply to

    they need to learn thier lesson .

    by bronxrealtyco May 28, 2015 1:31 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 28, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    good ole ymomma. silver lining on a nuclear bomb blast cloud.

  • Reply to

    Tick, tick, tick

    by esoteric687 May 27, 2015 3:19 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 28, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    ok hangman, you made your point. now lose the passive aggressive thing....

  • oh oh. i doubled down on TNK holdings. i know you want me out of here but, here i am again. with recent buy cost basis now at 6.83 PPS so that's bad news for me too - so far.

    guess you are going to have to live with me a bit. hopefully not for too long but then you know how traders are.

    PPS near 52 wk high of 7.30.
    yield paltry at 1.73%
    47.7% of outstanding shares held by institutions
    beta at 2.3 with historical volatility at 49.6% (those are VERY high)
    EPS down 12.39% over last 5 yrs
    float at 93.2M
    P/E at 10.49 with industry at 40.95 WOW (that's why i bought)
    price/book at 1.71 with industry at 27.62 (incredible)
    PEG ratio at 1.61x with industry at .29x (is this why TNK PPS is so low?)

    well, that's the tale-of-the-tape. interesting. rather makes it a target for traders but i don't see what your typical investor would see here. certainly not an income stock. hopefully a good growth stock. certainly risky.

  • Reply to

    Boss Vs. Western

    by nadsmis May 27, 2015 12:37 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 27, 2015 8:51 PM Flag

    IMO, PLOW is a "Buy" based on fundamentals and valuations. PLOW is a good investment if you're looking for an income stock with a good yield. Unfortunately, 85% of outstanding shares are owned by institutional buyers and they are all about future guidance which (if Janik is to be believed) doesn't look good. Bottom line for me is PLOW should be a good short term prospect with little risk barring market fluctuations. I won't hold PLOW long term as i believe they are losing market share to Boss and will not perform as well YOY. I will sell before next earnings rept.

    Rev increase and projected reduction to earnings? i don't know. are they discounting in order to increase sales? that would do it. are they experiencing addl costs from the Henderson acquisition? that would do it too.

    lower energy costs will help them - esp with their paint line ovens (big input cost) so that is contrary. a strong U.S. dollar won't help with Canadian sales but that is a small percentage of sales.

    that's my take but what do i know??? only that PLOW has been a big disappointment the last 5 months.

  • Reply to

    3 weeks to go to 45.50 B4 x-date

    by hrdwkgdog Apr 17, 2015 3:33 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 27, 2015 8:35 PM Flag

    and then he lost another $1.50/PPS

  • nadsmis by nadsmis May 27, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    There are 2 major manufacturers of snowplows in the U.S. Toro (TTC) and Douglas Dynamics. Both have had an extremely good track record of increased earnings and beats to analysts projections over last few Q's. Unfortunately, both gave up shareprice gains during their last ER's. Both CEO's stated that weather conditions benefited them but PLOW was more adamant. Unfortunately for shareholders, PPS didn't jump as it could have. Actually, in both cases, shareprices dropped even after great results were given during the CC due to those negative guidance comments.

    I had sold off 85% of PLOW and put that stake into TTC. Since that time, TTC is up 4.83% while PLOW has gone down 2.77%. PLOW yield is 4.35% while TTC yield equates to 1.45%. The 52 wk price range has PLOW in the middle and TTC at 52 week high.

    Price per book value (MRQ) has TTC very high at 8.28x while PLOW is low at 2.71x. with industry at 4.10x.

    Price per earnings has TTC at 21.07 while PLOW is 11.90 with industry at 18.22.

    TTC recently purchased the manufacturer of Boss while Douglas Dynamics recently acquired Henderson.

    The bottom line (IMO) is screaming that PLOW is the better investment now. Personally, I have trimmed TTC and am going to trim further and put back down into PLOW. Fundamental valuations dictate that move but the concern is PLOW Chairman Janik. Is he going to hurt shareholders again? Also, is Boss going to continue to take market share of pickup snowplows?

    Using a trader's vs. an investors mentality I am going to make the move back into PLOW but then sell off just prior to next earnings report. Going to close out TTC after reaping profits.

    Talking to snowplow contractors in upstate NY, Boss is more popular and "the plow to own". Personally, I think that sentiment is simply due to the brand name of Boss vs. Western or Fisher. The plow consumers are mostly swayed by the name vs. the price point (which is similar).

    Were I a long term investor, I would own neither.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    ARCC vs PSEC

    by learner1001 May 12, 2015 8:32 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 26, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    well Stan, it is rather odd to direct someone to buy something else vs. what you hold. the opposite is what you'd want to do. don't let your frustrations get the best of you.

  • Reply to

    Hoffman - WHAT DID YOU SAY???

    by nadsmis May 21, 2015 6:47 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 22, 2015 5:34 PM Flag

    a Thumbs down? lol. was Mr. Hoffman reading Yahoo finance boards or just an ignorant shareholder not wanting to hear anything contrary to their opinion?

    next time don't just click a thumb. try getting the stones to add to commentary and state your position.

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