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Douglas Dynamics, Inc. Message Board

nadsmis 258 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Jun 23, 2009
  • Reply to

    earning report???

    by nadsmis Mar 11, 2015 1:56 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 17, 2015 9:08 PM Flag

    looks like you are correct. took profits and ran too early.

  • nadsmis nadsmis Mar 17, 2015 9:07 PM Flag

    oh right. and they buy into the law suits, fines, and legal fees. what a dumb thing to say.

  • Reply to

    Good news for TNK...

    by daltomah Mar 16, 2015 10:51 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 16, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    a bit testy today kocmic? i guess i don't blame you.

    stay off the school buses so you don't make them crash too. lol.

  • Reply to

    armageddon

    by carlwilliams_2001 Mar 13, 2015 11:56 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 16, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    your take makes perfect sense but is a bit skewed. the glut is not due to overproduction alone but is coupled to lower demand. with oil as cheap as it is, oil related products will cost less. lower gasoline prices, fuel oil prices, will provide consumers with increased discretionary and disposable income. their spending will increase spurring the economy and demand for oil. China will pick up again soon if they aren't already.

    in the short run, companies like BP will be hurt. others will reduce production. there will become a "new normal" for oil prices. stabilization will occur once equilbrium to supply and demand is reached. right now their is more supply then demand hence the drop to oil. in the longer term - mayhaps even 6 months - oil will again begin to rise in price.

    there will always be the Greeces and Argentinas of this world. i don't expect to see Russia continue to play the game they're playing for too much longer. they are already backing off in the Ukraine and are hoping sanctions will abate. we'll see.

    i am not seeing gloom and doom but simply different opportunities and challenges.

  • Reply to

    Facing the facts!

    by joelindell86 Mar 14, 2015 11:03 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 16, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    nothing in the markets are "very simple". nonetheless, you made a good move. i had sold off all energy companies per se and avoided the crunch too. however, i thought keeping (2) oil storage comanies like NSH and TNK would be good as the oil glut necessitated that. Not a good move for me. Still am holding both those 2 but wringing my hands.

    i didn't think ETP would have been hit so hard as they aren't drillers, manufacturers and their service would still be in demand as before fracking - maybe more!! Still, just because they are tied to energy they got hit and hit hard. as oil prices go, so does ETP regardless of being 2nd or 3rd tier to energy production.

    as things stand now, were i you, i may be buying back into the likes of ETP. not oil directly as i beieve we have now reached a "new normal" but pipelines, railroads, storage, tankers, and the like should prosper and their earnings shouldn't be adversely impacted.

    good luck to you...

  • Reply to

    Good news for TNK...

    by daltomah Mar 16, 2015 10:51 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 16, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    No kidding. This stuff continues to stink up my portfolio. It's on the bubble with me. The market obviously hates it.

  • Reply to

    earning report???

    by nadsmis Mar 11, 2015 1:56 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 16, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    Forget about the earnings? They are already discounted?

    you gotta be kidding... Earnings are always important.

    guess it matters little to me now as i closed JRN position. maybe too soon....

  • Reply to

    Facing the facts!

    by joelindell86 Mar 14, 2015 11:03 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 14, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    Joelind.
    Yes, IMO ETP could quickly lose another 10% but also, IMO, they are more likely to gain 10%. The RGP aquisition will take a little time to show benefits of synergy. The purch price was a steal and like any other publicly held company aquiring another, the buyer gets hit while the purchased entity goes up. Very very typical. Also, the fact that oil related industries are getting hit doesn't help. Altho i am nervous as well, esp with this after hrs trading, i would rate ETP a buy for new investors and a Hold for current investors. Were you to sell, you will lock in losses and if you buy back in you will be behind the pop.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Future Earnings

    by hgl12692529 Mar 13, 2015 10:22 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 14, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    hgl,
    I don't think you're wrong - i think you're right. 2015 could be bigger than 2014. Altho record snowfall was recorded in Boston and out east, there wasn't record snowfall in the midwest. The South got hit in KY, TN, VA even GA and MS. That should help push sales from Henderson and Dougl Dyn. Also, the after market industry is always very profitable for PLOW and that sector will definately be up. Was unfortunate that Janik downplayed 2015 when he should have rested on their laurels and we saw the result of that error. Would rather reap the benefits of another stellar year based on what occurred than temper investors enthusiasm with what MIGHT happen remainder of this year. i am willing to bet we see good YOY sales revenue for next 3 Q's. Perhaps Q4 2015 might be down YOY but why go there until maybe 2015 Q3?

    nonetheless, i took advantage of dips after the CC and bought in twice more. Turned out well so far. Plan is to ring the cash register and take out after PLOW hits about 25 PPS. Will evaluate again after Q2 earnings release. Hopefully Janik learned his lesson. I am sure the BOD will have some advice. Am chalking that up to them not having been a publicly held company until just a few years ago. A different game, calling for different tactics, than being privately held.

    IMO - Short Term a buy and Long-Term Sentiment a Hold.

    Good luck...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Janik tanks stock

    by nadsmis Mar 12, 2015 10:57 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 12, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    ok Laughing Boy.

    2 buys today covering earlier losses incurred at market open.

    Laugh at that Chuckles.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Janik tanks stock

    by nadsmis Mar 12, 2015 10:57 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 12, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    what's wrong with you? i expect a CEO to grow owners equity you knucklehead.

    put down again for another 1800 shares @ 21.40 PPS.

    you know, the only time a shareholder laughs at a drop in share price of 10% is when he has a very small stake hence, your posts are meaningless - not to mention moronic.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Janik tanks stock

    by nadsmis Mar 12, 2015 10:57 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 12, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    xirio,
    "He is being fair to shareholders"? Are you insane? Shareholders don't need his opinions nor commentary we need results. Being fair to shareholders is performing his job priority and that is to grow shareholders wealth. Pure and simple.
    However wrong i think you are with your post on CEO, i won't be surprised to see a bump. Hope my buy today will be fortuitous.
    Being fair.... lol.

  • nadsmis by nadsmis Mar 12, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    FLY continues to simply flounder about. while returning a nice dividend and subsequent yield, capital appreciation is unpredictable and yield may not cover. market up strong today and FLY down significantly after earnings report. Despite good financial metrics, the Market is unimpressed. Job 1 is to grow shareholder wealth, owner's equity. Not doing it here.

    Concern is another Secondary. That will pummel PPS. FLY has that history as their eyes are bigger than their belly.

    Good luck to Longs. i will continue to observe but not partake.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • We all know that market pricing is predicated on what investors think equities WILL DO, not necessarily what they did do. Past and present only used as a basis for prediction on future performance.

    WHAT WAS JANIK THINKING WHEN WE MADE REMARKS ABOUT NOT TO EXPECT THIS RETURN IN 2015??? Thanks a lot. How stupid. Have seen CEO's and CFO's do this before with the same result. If he thought it was to underpromise and over deliver, he was mistaken.

    Just bought more on the dip @ $21.93 avg. Immediately began to take a hit. ugh.... lol.

  • nadsmis by nadsmis Mar 12, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    enough of this. my sell can contribute reducing stock owned by "foreigners". They can have it. I don't believe they will distribute dividends either.

    unpredictable, unscrupulous, untrustworthy Russian govt.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • only publically held equity that has a CEO telling shareholders they rank #3 after employees and customers. no wonder that there is, and will never be, dividends nor distributions. as long as employees and customers are happy, he is happy. shareholders aren't happy - then too bad. PPS plummets (as it has) and so what? he will make customers happy by lowering BABA prices and hence lowering customers cost. he will see that employees are happy increasing headcount, wages, salaries, bonus, and other perks. shareholders don't like that? too bad, so sad.

    no wonder PPS drops are shareholders sell. i sure wouldn't own BABA as long as Jack Ma (aka Ma Yun) was even remotely in the picture.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    earnings report...

    by nadsmis Feb 5, 2015 4:07 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 11, 2015 6:44 PM Flag

    hey hgl,

    you have carte blanche to trash me. CTCM is proving to be a bust as is another Russian company MBT i bought into. so far, so bad. with the super earnings release from PLOW, i was shown to be wrong in financing my TTC buy with sell of some PLOW. if anything i should have waited for PLOW earnings release (which i was confident would be good) and then sold the 50% to fund TTC which i know will be good as time moves forward.

    after hours trading on PLOW right now looks for a great open tomorrow. dividend payout in 2 weeks as well so we enjoy the capital gains post last ex-dividend date.

  • Reply to

    bottom is dropping out.

    by nadsmis Mar 9, 2015 3:44 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 11, 2015 6:34 PM Flag

    skinz,
    thx for sharing your thoughts. you've a good perspective on investing.
    my biggest fault is lack of patience and i've made some great buys but then got out too quick. that's when i start kicking myself. That is also just what Warren Buffet tells us investors - be patient.
    i will note that a fourth of my stock portfolio is short-term as i have a major real estate venture on the near horizon and i serve as my own bank and borrow from my own assets which i warehouse in Ameritrade. once i pull that chunk of change, the 75% remainder is just that - remnants. they provide income, liquidity, and hopefully growth for my kids someday. hopefully, the growth is larger and faster so that i can dole out to help make their struggles easier than mine were back then. student loans can be smothering.
    intend to pay back that 1/4 draw by selling off some current real estate holdings come the summer months.
    one last thought, when i kick myself, i have to pull the punches a wee bit as i view former positions that i sold off and was glad of it. most notably SDRL, GLNG, BP, COP and most recently all those utility stocks that are being beaten up. my take is that i can continue to opt out of losing positions as is and hopefully learn to be patient when positions are running up - PLOW and then TTC to follow. maybe AAPL as well.
    as for ETP, i like the yield, i like the tax application and still view it as a good investment in a bad time.
    good luck...

  • Reply to

    earning report???

    by nadsmis Mar 11, 2015 1:56 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 11, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    thx tjob.

    i eagerly await that ER. hope it is as nice as another WI stock - PLOW. i'd be in Hog heaven.

  • Reply to

    trading pre-Earnings release

    by nadsmis Mar 11, 2015 2:04 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis Mar 11, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    better than interesting - PROFITABLE. POS means profit on stock....!

    after hours trading pushing PPS even higher after earnings report which was outstanding...!! Did we ever doubt? naw.

    hope is that TTC (Toro) will have much the same result their next earnings report. snow means an awful lot to them too as well as consumer discretionary spending from disposable income due to lower pump prices.

    Feeling the love? lol

PLOW
20.8601+0.3001(+1.46%)12:34 PMEDT