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Douglas Dynamics, Inc. Message Board

nadsmis 212 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 6:48 PM Member since: Jun 23, 2009
  • Reply to

    Today's moves

    by frigator May 8, 2015 11:02 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 8, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    as you agree with mr.phil, i agree with you and adjusted my stock portfolio accordingly but did position myself for 2 short term plays with an industrial and a retailer ahead of their earnings next wk.

    gl to you.

  • Reply to

    Today's moves

    by frigator May 8, 2015 11:02 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 8, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    frigator,
    i too sold off AAPL couple weeks ago at 127.25. i expect AAPL to be rather flat, or come down a max. of 5%. i think it's topped off and will have a tough time repeating last few quarters. buyback will help PPS but not enough.
    i reduced my exposure to BDC's too. closed BKCC and FSC positions and reduced ARCC and MAIN. went to an industrial with TTC ahead of earnings release and am holding cash for a HD buy. HD needs to drop quick for me as i want to get there ahead of their earnings too.
    altho i think BDC's will get beat down when Fed raises rates, they will actually become more profitable by raising their interest rates they charge right along with the Fed. that will become an opportunity for me to reinvest in BDC's.
    Live long and Prosper....

  • Reply to

    EPS

    by theeckman1 May 8, 2015 2:06 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 8, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    yah. or a robust buyback would be welcomed by Mr Market too.

    i think we need ole kosmic to kick this equity in the poop shooter. get it off the snide here.

    TNK a full 15.05% my stock portfolio. that's alot of beans in one can for me.

  • Reply to

    all out...

    by nadsmis May 8, 2015 10:40 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 8, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    tsew,

    you make sense and i understand. ok to be out of dry powder with market so high. maybe take a wee bit off the table and wait for a dip in the markets? you know it's coming.

    gonna keep $26k and start buying options. mad money in a sense.

    OLED as in Univ Display Corp?

  • Reply to

    all out...

    by nadsmis May 8, 2015 10:40 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 8, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    oopsie..

    just found 500 shares in my Roth. oh well. altho it's a self directed Roth, i don't play too much there.

    i see i took a "thumbs down" on my post this morning. i know no one likes to hear anything contrary to what reinforces their opinion but, sorry. i spoke nothing but the truth. sometimes, the truth hurts. i did try to be pleasant and matter-of-fact tho.

    hey, i still love all of you... after all, what's not to like about fellow investors willing to invest in American companies?

    as my belated friend Mr. Spock used to say, "Live long and prosper".

  • Reply to

    EPS

    by theeckman1 May 8, 2015 2:06 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 8, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    no impact on shareprice tho. way underperforming a robust market today. again, most disappointing.

  • nadsmis by nadsmis May 8, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    enough is enough. only reason PLOW is up today is due to the strong market. even then PLOW up .66% while DJI is up 1.35%.

    Janik is the reason - pure and simple. his ER once again hurt shareholders. if he is hedging then that simply means he is not being forthrigh and can't be trusted. if he is to be believed then the forward guidance gives no optimism. apparently Mr Market feels the same way as the PLOW selloff since the ER continues. 2 Q's in a row that PLOW PPS has not risen after a stellar, followed by a good, earnings report. can you imagine the reaction to a loss to projections? i think that is entirely possible as the TTC Boss snowplow line continues to take market share. the ratio on the road that i saw last winter was 3 - 1 for the Boss vs. PLOW product like Western or the Fisher (SIC) line.

    while the yield is attractive, opportunity costs and capital gain losses aren't covered.

    TTC investment has vastly outperformed PLOW investment. will take 50% cash, go 25% in TTC and 25% in HD.

    good luck to all PLOW longs and i truly wish you well but, consider your lost opportunities that a robust market offers elsewhere...

    i sold 3,000 shares @ 21.38 PPS

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Nice head fake boys.

    by tsew_yek May 6, 2015 5:04 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 7, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    tsew,

    I made a mistake and double downed on PLOW holdings post earnings mistakenly thinking PPS would rebound on solid financials. I was correct on the good financials and beat to earnings but wrong on the resultant to shareprice.

    Janik has no clue about PR and conducted an uninspiring ER which is clearly evidenced by selloff in an up market. That poor monologue delivery put off investors and the hiatus began. When you have a stellar ER and follow that up with a beat to earnings projections on next Q, only to see PPS drop hard, something is very wrong.

    The under-promise-over-deliver and hedge theories are not appropriate for a publicly held company whose prime directive should be to grow shareholder wealth. Janik and the BOD have obviously not made the transition from being a privately held company. In that regard they are failing. That is undeniable.

    While the yield is good, it does not begin to cover capital losses. A terrible performance. DJI up .61% and PLOW down 1.75%??? Unbelievable.

    Am hoping for any type of bounce so I can exit this stock permanently. Looks like a lot of investors beat me to it. That is undeniable. Truly, PLOW is a POS.

  • Reply to

    No Surprises in Q1 results

    by st067753 May 6, 2015 1:39 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 7, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    you've an obvious personality disorder.

    oh, since you asked, undergrad Industrial Management (3.25 GPA), MBA (3.97 GPA). good enough?

    crashnburn a good handle for you but sierrahater would be more appropriate. jeez.

    despite yourself, i hope you prosper...

  • nadsmis nadsmis May 7, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    they are often referred to as Goldman Sucks. for a good reason. they can't even run their own business without begging for TARP. GS no better than Raymond James (a totally self serving analyst co.) Zack's seems to be the only reputable one out there except for perhaps The Street.

  • Reply to

    ETP Earnings

    by runtravrun1 May 6, 2015 2:12 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 7, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    another disappointment

  • Reply to

    the beatdown continues

    by nadsmis May 6, 2015 12:52 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 7, 2015 11:11 AM Flag

    snuau,
    well, we all have our own time frames and strategies but, at the end of the day, what we all have in common is pursuing the creation of wealth.

    yes, i agree that MAIN is well run and a good BDC. if i didn't, i wouldn't hold it. still in all, it's getting hurt ahead of the ER and if you aren't worried, that's fine. you should be concerned tho if you've any amt of money at stake. i see you've only been a Yahoo finance member since last Jan. 20 so, unless you've a new identity, i don't know what to think of that.

    if you "set it and forget it" and utilize the DRIP then that's fine but not my methodology. i monitor daily and adjust my stock portfolio to capitalize on near term market trends.

    i like to see people use the DRIP as they are buying an equity i hold. that helps me. i personally take the cash and then i decide where, and more importantly when, i reinvest or hold for a better buying opportunity. transaction costs are insignificant (to me). wouldn't you rather have bought more MAIN yesterday or today than on last ex-div date of the 18th?

    i wish you good fortune but, as for your "bet", i would be surprised. i certainly take my share of losses but i vastly outperform the markets and i certainly outperform MAIN. i use MAIN, and now only 1 other BDC, as a good income equity with monthly distributions. MAIN is a conservative play for me and, while i don't perceive it as a growth stock, i don't like taking capital losses.

    oh, and i am concerned about BDC's in general and that is why i have recently reduced my exposure to that sector. no one here likes to hear this but they lend to those unable to secure loans with traditional banks where those clients would have enjoyed a lower int rate. that means risk and i am always concerned with that. BDC's are no longer components of the Russell and S&P indices. there is a reason for that.

    very very nice to see MAIN increasing dividends.

    Nad

    Sentiment: Hold

  • big selloff since earnings rept. was a very good Q but sounded on the down side for ongoing 2015. having seen the down trend prior to ER, i exited at 53.09$ and hence avoided a 12.3% hit.
    still have UHT on my Watch List but am going to simply observe for a bit. no cut to dividend, stock buyback should proceed. wonder what else is going on. could it be problems with the govt? anyone know?

  • Reply to

    Earnings Call this Afternoon

    by sboatgirl2010 May 5, 2015 1:19 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 6, 2015 6:15 PM Flag

    nope. Beats/AAPL will continue to take market share. Koss is out of it totally.

    would not expect to see a reversal in SKUL fortunes.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    No Surprises in Q1 results

    by st067753 May 6, 2015 1:39 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 6, 2015 5:55 PM Flag

    sierra,
    your credibility would be enhanced were you to know the difference between "their", "there", and "they're". really.
    by-the-by, i cashed out MIFI (a short term hold) at 6.31$/share. glad i dodged this recent bullet post earnings release. still in all i like MIFI's potential and have it still on my Watch List. will let the dust settle both with this equity, and the market in general, and then reinvest. no specific entry point but will look for a trend reversal. at this time, i wouldn't jump in.

  • Reply to

    still holding...

    by nadsmis Apr 30, 2015 2:09 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 6, 2015 5:42 PM Flag

    the recent selloff reversed itself and TNK had a very nice rebound today from noon EST @ +0.32% PPS in a down market. i hope that i will hear all kinds of response over the next 2 -3 weeks telling me how i was needlessly concerned. will be music to my pocketbook.

  • Reply to

    still holding...

    by nadsmis Apr 30, 2015 2:09 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 6, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    well, the beatdown continues nearly unabated. am becoming increasingly concerned with TNK PPS poor performance over the past week. altho the market itself is performing badly, TNK getting clobbered. since Apr 28 TNK has lost 7.4% to shareprice. a beat to analyst expectations will not be enough to reclaim recent shareprice loss. the ER must now come in absolutely stellar to drive up shareprice. anything less than that, pow.

    doesn't look too promising. selloff in progress....

  • while the market is getting hit, MAIN is getting clobbered over the last 5 trading sessions. while all 6 of the BDC's that are either on my watch list, or that i hold, are also down, MAIN is the worst of the lot. DJI down .92% at current for those sessions and MAIN down 2.52% over same time frame. concerning as that is almost a 3 - 1 multiple. altho expectations aren't rosey for BDC's due to looming Fed interest rate move, didn't expect the beatdown to be this bad this quick. as anticipated, utilities are also getting hit hard as well as REITs.
    i know good ole RC doesn't like to compare BDC's to the DJI but, the dow is THE benchmark. nonetheless, MAIN performing worse than other BDC's.
    fortunately i had closed a position with FSC and BKCC and then trimmed MAIN and ARCC before the bell today.
    The MAIN board has been quiet lately. Any thoughts from the Longs out there or are Shorts taking hold?

  • Reply to

    How will higher interest rates effect ARCC?

    by c8w88 Apr 22, 2015 3:08 PM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 6, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    hgl,
    am not sure putting anything into the market is good at this time. we all know the Feds will be raising the rates. that bodes ill for all income stocks from utilities to BDC's. however,
    that hike will allow BDC's to also raise rates accordingly thereby contributing to profits and earnings. will mean special dividends and mayhaps an increase to dividend yields for BDC's. we get that payout. the question is will the drop to PPS be covered by distributions.

    ARCC was one position i trimmed in order to increase my PLOW position. do you still hold PLOW? i also trimmed MAIN and TTC to put down into PLOW post earnings release set back.

    no new money going into my stock portfolio until after July. i think we all know what's coming and the recent swoon in the markets reflect those concerns.

    MXF, NMM, ARCC and the like are good picks but it's all about the timing. personally, i'd wait....

  • Reply to

    Christmas in May

    by jrg8554 May 5, 2015 11:24 AM
    nadsmis nadsmis May 5, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    you just don't get it. this is a prelude. the earnings loss was not a surprise and i am fortunate to have exited a week ago. this will fall hard and this is the start. $4.90 by this time next week.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

PLOW
20.96+0.15(+0.72%)Jul 2 4:02 PMEDT