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Citigroup Inc. Message Board

nafta07 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 16, 2014 10:05 AM Member since: Nov 8, 1999
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  • Reply to

    What we need on tomorrow's storage report

    by gar4one Apr 16, 2014 9:52 AM
    nafta07 nafta07 Apr 16, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    "BENTEK Top Stories
    04/16/2014 –
    Northeast Observer
    Northeast demand will peak today; TCO announces first injection of season

    Northeast gas demand will peak today as the region is hit by another round of colder weather. Demand is expected to hit 20 Bcf/d, which is 6 Bcf/d above normal for this time of year and the highest demand level since March 27, when Northeast demand touched 22 Bcf/d. "

    04/16/2014 –
    "Southeast/Gulf Observer
    Lower power burn and outflows to help rebuild storage this summer

    Southeast gas inventories fell to a low of 150 Bcf on March 26 and are currently estimated at 153 Bcf, a 161-Bcf deficit to the 5-year average and a 141-Bcf deficit to last year. Inventories at the 59-Bcf Pine Prairie facility have averaged 13.6 Bcf over the last 30 days, 22 Bcf (62%) below last year, suggesting that the facility will need to fill at an average rate of 110 MMcf/d faster this year compared to last in order to reach 2013 summer-ending inventories. Bentek expects that lower gas burn and outflows will help the region rebuild this massive deficit. During summer 2014, Bentek expects total power burn to average 0.2 Bcf/d less and outflows to the Midcon and Northeast to average 1.6 Bcf/d less, year-over-year. "

    Looks like you will get your wish , another low injection on top of an epic draw season.It will be interesting to see how the build unfolds this summer and fall.

  • nafta07 nafta07 Apr 7, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    BENTEK Top Stories
    04/07/2014 –
    Supply/Demand Balance Analytic Report
    US demand falls to lowest level since November

    US demand is at 62 Bcf today, down 2.3 Bcf/d from Sunday and 5.6 Bcf/d from Friday as a drop in res/comm outpaced a small gain in power burn over the past two days. Demand is now at its lowest level since November 2013. Northeast region res/comm demand fell to 8.8 Bcf/d, a 0.9-Bcf/d decline from Sunday, and is expected to continue to fall to an average 7.4 Bcf/d over the next six days. Res/comm in the West and Midcon decreased by 1.3 Bcf/d from Sunday to 7.2 Bcf/d as the regions saw milder temperatures. Demand in these areas is expected to average 7.1 Bcf/d for the coming week. US dry gas production remained fairly flat over the weekend at 67.1 Bcf/d and is expected to maintain that level through this week. Production last week averaged 67.3

    It doesn’t appear the market is pricing in a shortage yet even after an epic draw season. The drillers are in control in a way , they control how their drilling budgets are spent , dry gas is the least profitable for them. I hope CHK stays on course here……………

  • nafta07 nafta07 Apr 7, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    Weekend brings record-high PG&E injection rates

    PG&E storage injections spiked over the weekend and will likely be elevated throughout the week, as strong PG&E CG prices and mild demand encourage ample net injections. The PG&E market area fields injected 963 MMcf/d and 900 MMcf/d on Saturday and Sunday, the highest injection rates the system has noted in April dating back to 2010. Over the first week of April, PG&E net injected a total of 2.8 Bcf, sending inventory levels to 74.4 Bcf. The Opal-PG&E CG and AECO-PG&E CG spreads widened by $0.05 and $0.08 to $0.60 and $0.77 during the 7-day span, incentivizing an uptick in flowing volumes from surrounding regions. Redwood Path receipts from GTN and Ruby rose a combined 610 MMcf/d to 2.01 Bcf/d from the March average of 1.4 Bcf/d. With the strong start to the storage injection season, the spring shoulder months are shaping up to continue filling inventory levels at record-high rates, so long as the downstream market conditions of high prices and weak res/comm demand remain.

    "From Bentek"

  • Reply to

    My Heat is still on and has been...

    by dmorgan2151 Apr 3, 2014 10:59 AM
    nafta07 nafta07 Apr 3, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    Not short wallpack , just realistic . There is a downside to low storage though , I can’t see Utilities planning future power generation based on current storage and I can’t see the drillers ramping up production on $4.30 gas either. I Believe Lawler is making the right moves here , limiting drilling to cash flow from operations is a top priority , drilling in the low cost fields in the Marcellus and Eagle Ford should help , they have dropped their drilling cost through new efficiency’s in The Eagle Ford to 7-8 million from 10, at that price they can make 100% with $4.30 gas . I am hoping the new management will drive CHK price higher rather than what the weather does.

  • Reply to

    My Heat is still on and has been...

    by dmorgan2151 Apr 3, 2014 10:59 AM
    nafta07 nafta07 Apr 3, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    From Bentek
    "We asked Moore about the end-of-year final
    tally for 2014 as well. “We’re still looking at
    somewhere between 3.6 and low 3.7 Tcf. No
    records next year, for sure. The biggest question
    is what the power burn will look like.
    Assuming that power burn will come in at
    2013 levels, we could hit much higher than
    the 3.6 Tcf … but we’re forecasting some decent
    growth in power burn for 2014.This is
    partially due to a return to normal weather
    and a fair amount to new builds coming on
    line this year. Here again, this is all despite
    the fact we will be looking at some very strong
    production numbers,” Moore says.
    “I think the biggest thing I’ve
    learned this year is don’t chase EIA,” he says.
    “When the EIA report surprises you to one
    side or the other, don’t change what you do,
    don’t chase their numbers. Learn from what
    they report, but carry on … ”
    There it is: Jeff Moore and company
    at Bentek Energy are the best gas storage
    forecasters in the land for 2013 according
    to the Energy Metro Desk weekly boxscores,
    North America’s biggest and oldest weekly
    gas storage survey and report. Bentek bested
    40 other models, surveys and analysts to win
    this year’s title."

  • Reply to

    math addition problem

    by megprg Apr 1, 2014 6:58 PM
    nafta07 nafta07 Apr 2, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    That particular information came from Bentek Energy , they track the producers , they have some useful information but as with the IEA their numbers are estimates, follow the money …………….the traders seem to have a better handle on it.

  • Reply to

    math addition problem

    by megprg Apr 1, 2014 6:58 PM
    nafta07 nafta07 Apr 2, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    DENVER, April 1, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Spurred on by the top three highest producing days in U.S. history, domestic natural gas production in the lower 48 states averaged 66.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/day) in March 2014, according to the latest estimates from Bentek Energy, the oil and natural gas analytic unit of Platts. Production levels on March 29, 30 and 31 all came in at 67.6 Bcf/d, the single highest production days since November 9, 2013. March 28 production came in just 0.1 Bcf/d shy of these levels.

  • Reply to

    EIA does make you question their assumptions

    by gar4one Mar 20, 2014 3:51 PM
    nafta07 nafta07 Mar 20, 2014 6:35 PM Flag

    "ND natural gas production set a new record at 1.06 bcf/d.
    The state should also eclipse 10,000 producing wells before year-end. Natural gas production in the Williston Basin could more than quadruple current levels, pushing North Dakota into a more leading role in supplying the U.S. natural gas market, according to a study released Wednesday."

    Now obviously they are not flaring off 1Bcf a day , new pipelines are nearing completion.

  • Reply to

    EIA does make you question their assumptions

    by gar4one Mar 20, 2014 3:51 PM
    nafta07 nafta07 Mar 20, 2014 5:06 PM Flag

    Average is the key word , we are past our high consumption mark until November , we will be adding 10-12 Bcf per day in a week or two, not to mention new supply from the Bakken.

  • Reply to

    US needs record injections for 2015 winter

    by wallpack123 Mar 18, 2014 4:12 AM
    nafta07 nafta07 Mar 18, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    No problem filling storage by next fall , Infrastructure being built in the Bakken will add 300 to 400Mcf per day that they are now flaring off , same thing in the Marcellus minus the flaring part, they don’t have the infrastructure to fully exploit the resource. If there was any pending shortage you would not see NG at 4 bucks and some change………..

  • Reply to

    natural gas levels

    by megprg Mar 13, 2014 4:46 PM
    nafta07 nafta07 Mar 14, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    It’s not that storage is not important , it represents 10% of yearly usage on average[2.5Tcf] It’s my belief production and usage is a better metric. Usage has been flat the last few years even as power plants are switching from coal …………go figure, NG dropped 2 ½% after the last EIA report even though it put us 46% under the five year average.

  • Reply to

    natural gas levels

    by megprg Mar 13, 2014 4:46 PM
    nafta07 nafta07 Mar 13, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    The US uses 72Bcf a day of natty , storage represents a small percentage of use , it’s an important barometer but a bit misleading , now that the weather is clearing production will get stronger.

  • Reply to

    Ya gotta luv the AP headline "CHK falls on loss"

    by a17599621 Feb 26, 2014 2:13 PM
    nafta07 nafta07 Feb 26, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    "The company also provided an update on its asset sales, stating that in 2014 it has received $209M of net proceeds from the sale of its common equity ownership interest in Chaparral Energy and believes it will receive proceeds in excess of $150M during 2014 that were held back for title review or other purposes at the time of closing. These items should generate proceeds of about $1B, and Chesapeake sees the sale of these assets having a minimal impact on 2014 operating cash flow guidance. Looking ahead, the company sees 2014 total production up 2%-4% and sees its 2014 daily equivalent rate at 680mboe-695mboe. The company expects to have additional asset dispositions in 2014, potentially including a spin-off of COS to Chesapeake shareholders or an outright sale. On its earnings conference call, the company said it no longer needs to divest assets to survive or fund its drilling capital program. Chesapeake also commented that it has "a lot of noise" on its balance sheet, though major charges and quarterly earnings adjustments are "in the rear-view mirror". The company has no plans to issue new equity, management said."
    The good news is cash flow will provide drilling capital............................

  • Reply to

    The sun'll come out tomorrow!!!!

    by wallpack123 Feb 5, 2014 10:01 AM
    nafta07 nafta07 Feb 5, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    I hope so , -12 this morning in Denver and it's heading south and east..................

  • Reply to

    Off topic: I just read that NFL

    by wallpack123 Jan 31, 2014 12:43 PM
    nafta07 nafta07 Feb 2, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    I agree , we will find out soon enough , Denvers D and special teams could be the diference , I hope so anyway

  • Reply to

    Off topic: I just read that NFL

    by wallpack123 Jan 31, 2014 12:43 PM
    nafta07 nafta07 Jan 31, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Seattle leading this game early, but nobody adjusts at the half like Denver and Peyton. I see Eric Decker sneaking up on the secondary for a big game. Broncos 24, Seahawks 17.............Go Broncos

  • nafta07 nafta07 Jan 31, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    Yahoo message board flatulence is the cause of global warming …………….It’s so powerful it even heats up Mars

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