if it just take HOD with volume...it will close which should mark short term bottom...
i just dont get why it is down...
they had beaten revenune estimates by 8M if you consider FX impact..(sodastream does not control that and none of estimates were adjusted for euro-usd).
they guided 60M revenue and 23M less operating income due to FX impact for next year...somebody could argue their but considering europe was 60% of bussiness, euro depreciated 15% last year...its not too bad and these are prelims any way.
key question is how do you value refill bussiness?
i agree completely and that costed me dearly as i had bought tons at 40....), then 30..its been painful to say least.
they beat revenue by 8M+ if you take out FX effect...
they guided 60M revenue down for next year based on FX (euro has depreciated 30% compare to dollar)...it was not new information and it can chang/beyond control of soda.
they guided 23M less operating profit...based on FX,
Sentiment: Strong Buy
nflx turned around for two reasons
2. their new show which made subscriber grow..
can soda pull both, i would say chances are more than 50% but so far managment had been clueless on how to create shareholder value.
they should be buying here as long as they believe in refill /consumable business.
what a mess, it needs private equity or strong arm player to support....
Sentiment: Strong Buy
and it keeps getting cheaper...just dont understand why somebody will short or sell unless there is fraud in numbers which we were made to believe?
yeah and he is well connected with david einhorn/bill ackman but still no interest in sodastream from any of hedge fund. keep in mind he had bought at 40$ and then added more at 20, so for his breakeven he needs something like 32-34$.
declining growth does not mean it is loosing money..
they spent 180M last year SGA/marketing, if they can save half of it, it will add 4$ in eps but i lost serious money
it made new low so it does not qualify for triple bottom , only if closes higher than open...)
i have lost unbelievable amount of money and i just dont get where do these shares come from for sell?
its really frustrating to be long on soda ...so much potential but getting beaten down everyday
but that clown is still repeating sell rather than making it hold and increasing price target.
there was tangible resolution to bloom lake and reduction in cost but he cannot do that..
even JPM did had earning estimate and increased price target to 9 from 8 but only short wins.. i just dont get it.
there was nothing in earning which was bad
they clarified position regarding bloom lake
they cutdown cost and guided lower for cost
they realized better price
and stock is #$%$ down. i feel like personally kicking credit suisse/wells fargo guys...
until yesteday you were confused with price action along with rest of longs but now you are saying its expected...) funny part is all analyst estimates went up but surprisingly target went down/stayed where it was.
one of two is true.
either share price before earning were too high/not justified and market is pricing it now
or nothing matters as wall street has written orbituary for CLF, except miracle it will not move up but i dont understand what made it move from 6- 9.40 in late january??
Less concerned on cash flows…
We model 2015E FCF $160M or $0.92/shr based on 2015 capex guidance of $125-
150M, and modest benefit from a below 10% cash tax rate from NOLs. Eliminating
the dividend saves CLF $93M that it likely applies towards debt pay-down, and CLF
said it had paid $100M of debt down in January from coal sale proceeds. The CEO
mentioned a buyback, but we think this is unlikely near term. Steps to improve the
balance sheet have been decisive, but ~9x debt/EBITDA remains daunting.
… but iron ore a burden. Maintain Underperform and $4 PO
Our $4 PO uses a 7.5-8x 2015/16E EV/EBITDA, vs a historical through-the-cycle
forward 5.8x EV/EBITDA since 2005. We remain cautious on iron ore prices, as a
weak Australian dollar and falling oil prices shift the cost curve even lower. Sharp
scrap price drops could boost minimill competitiveness vs iron ore users longer term