The week when we had 416 Trx, I use this formula(base it on new users for nothing better).
Se doctor get one injection
use 4 injectors
1+4+1=refill for that Trx
" Profitability on Otrexup alone is in the very foreseeable future."
Even if you are short sighted :o) and that's probably better than to be just short.
700 = Suggested number of scripts per week to break even.
52 = Suggested number of weeks per year.
770 = Reported average value in US$ per script dispensed from the pharmacy.
So why do people have a hard time accepting this?
700 is a number, you can't argue that.
52 is the accepted number of weeks in a year, you can't argue that.
770$ average value per script dispensed from the pharmacy,
You can argue that if.....
The Pharmacies reported the wrong numbers to Symphony, or
Symphony made some errors when putting together the data from the pharmacies, or
An error in Bloomberg computers miss-reported the data to their customers.
Then the 770$/script average is wrong.....
If none of the above is correct then we can comfortably break even or better at 700 scripts per week as long as the average value stay at 770$/Script or better.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It's impossible to work out the number of individual users unless you have access to every prescription. Because the way that scripts(prescriptions) are reported Nrx is reported for new and renewed scripts so every time a doctor renews a script for a patient that person will show up in Nrx again. The number to look at is Trx Total scripts per week and luckily now we also got the average price per script dispensed to show us where we are heading.
That's the number reported from the Cash register. How much do you think will end up in Antares pocket of that number.
whogo you should care,
There is more than one script per prescription that's why the average price per script is 770$.
It's a bit confusing a doctors prescription is reported as a script and that prescripton can be for 1 to say 12 scripts of Otrexup(each Otrexup script is 4 injectors).
So don't confuse the two and ATRS probably get about 480 per Otrexup script.
I looked up what pharmacies make on prescription drugs, Found this data from 2012
Puut the following in search"us pharmacy profit margin on prescription drugs"
This is what I got.
Win some, lose some. Of the 3,230 drugs with both a NADAC and a NARP, the equally-weighted mathematical average gross profit per prescription was $7.46 per prescription. However, there were wide variations in the dollar profits earned by a pharmacy for dispensing a prescription. Like other retailers, pharmacies make money dispensing a basket of products. Some items in the basket are more profitable than others. For the six examples above, gross profits range from $3.15 to $37.80. In the whole sample, about 5% had negative gross profits, while about 5% had gross profits above $20 per prescription. "
The reported Otrexup value at the Pharmacies for last week was US$ 358,000
One Otrexup script is 4 injectors in one pack with a US list price of 548 US$
If every single Script was sold at list you get 358,000/548=653 versus reported 464 so even at list there was 1,4 Otrexup script shipped per Doctor's prescription
I think the net price is around 480 per Otrexup script for the end user and then you get
358,000/480=745 Otrexup scripts or 1,6 Otrexup scripts per doctors prescription.
A majority of the Nrx was probably only for one pack of four injectors, use it for a month and come back and see me and we'll go from there said the doctor to the new patient.
do you think the user sends in the money for the injector when the take it out or do you think you have to pay for the whole lot when it goes out the door? What is it you don't understand with 358,000 Dollars last week?
And you Ryman are making assumptions that my assumptions were wrong. And maybe they were but 358,000 Dollars was spent last week on Otrexup and I'm pretty sure it was not mainly on the wrapping paper.
"In December you will be still making the same mat by trying to convince, mainly yourself, that 500 scripts at 1000 per scrip will be enough for profitability"
500*1000*52=26,000.000 Yep that would do it.
Rymancoly and Andre_y_mb,
It's not very complicated at all, If 358,000 was spent on Otrexup script in one week there is really only one explanation. They must have sold X number of scripts for a sum total of 358,000 that's it.
If you go into a shop to buy a shirt and every shirt in that shop cost 100 dollar and you walk out of that shop with a receipt for 200 hundred dollar one has to conclude that you bought two shirts.
Try to work on the shirt example it's not that complicated but it's using the same logic.
td I see what you mean the 700*52*770 was a reply to another post. I'm not sying that last week had 700 scripts they were reported as 464*52*770 for a run rate of 20,000,000 plus.
It was Rph who posted about break even at 700 and off course it was affirmed who posted that that was not possible. So that's when I came up with this enormously complicated formula. Number of scripts*Number of weeks in a year*Average value per script=Total run rate for the following 52 weeks=One year revenue.