Well, well, Sybil. I'm a little surprised that you showed up today.
I heard that you got fired. It's been all over the Short's Bulletin Board.
They said that I got you served a pink slip, cause you couldn't handle me.
Did you know that they sent "The Geneticist" to try to come rub me out?
So are you back to pitchforking junky biotechs?
And you say that you're having a problem with the share price here?
Tsk, tsk, what has the world come to?
I'd bet you probably sold MANY times today (without actually owning any of it).
Either you have the worst memory in the world and can't remember back 2 weeks ago (April 21st).
Or you can tell lies as good as Trump can.
I believe the second one........
I know that this might seem stale, but, SURELY they are selling it; who's buying it?
Shorts sell. That IS their mechanism. But what's the other side of their sale?
It CAN'T be the trash can.
That's not how the market works.
"a lot of money is going into driving it down."
That's not "by accident" or "the usual amount of Sell-in-May" effect happening, you realize?
You said the word yourself, "target".
That does imply something else; now doesn't it?
Beyond the extent of what was setup back in 2013 between PacBio and Roche, I don't really know (regarding buyout framework and language and what not).
Roche would have to be pretty "special" in their business acumen to let things get as far as they have with The Sequel and PacBio successes and NOT have something in place to pin-down or "limit" them in terms of exclusivity to Roche.
I don't think that Roche is that "special" (implying naive, foolhardy, stupid) when it comes to their business arrangements. If they were mentally dull, I don't think that they would have gotten to where they are now (in terms of size and success).
They impress me a MUCH sharper than that.
I don't interpret their attempts with ILMN as dumb or bumbling; despite Roche's size and monetary power, ILMN had the upper hand in that fight, and nothing went Roche's way, So......
I would be highly surprised to see a bidding war between ILMN and Roche.
My bet is that ILMN is pretty much "locked out" by Roche at this point.
Although, honestly, again, I don't know what the full arrangements are between PacBio and Roche.
I would HOPE that Roche does SOMETHING, ANYTHING here in the near term to lock-down PacBio to some extent; IF they don't already have that in place.
The success of the the Sequel is a thorn in ILMN's foot (for certain) but there COULD be other "entities" out there that would love to even try to scoop up PacBio at prices as low as $10 (IF they might even, possibly).
We just saw one of those back in March that made a run at AFFX.
AFFX has been closed since the calendar end of 1Q; I don't know if anyone noticed.
It has already been shown, 2 weeks ago, that PACB isn't worth $8.50 or even $10.50; it is worth much, MUCH MORE than that.
ILMN and the shorts all know it (as do bankers and analysts).
It's a "target" because they know it's a danger to ILMN's hold on market share and also because of the presence of Roche.
The stock price is the ONLY place that they are able to inflict damage, and that is what you are seeing happening.
We already had some bozo(s) from the ILMN side here trying to hint that PACB won't be able to stand their turd storm. They are here to sow "FUD".
PacBio (and Roche) aren't focused on that, they're focused on the business; we'll hear more about that in a few months.
It IS crazy that ILMN pooped their pants today, but yet PACB is down 5% and ILMN is not even down 1%. This cannot hold, I'm sure of it.
I also would LOVE to see company reps come out and even just cough the word "buyout" to an open microphone somewhere and see what happens.
Hang in there.
Know you, "hey dummy", go back to you ILMN rear-quarters and tell Flatley that he doesn't have the key that door anymore.
RHHBY is driving the train over here and the door for ILMN to come back to them is permanently sealed to Jay Flatley, FOREVER.
Buckle under? Hell.....
They have MADE the machine that turn over the last shovel full of dirt on Flatley and his behemoth.
That door closed forever to ILMN LAST OCTOBER! :-D
If some analyst or executive were to use the words "PacBio" and "buyout" in the same sentence near an open mic, sometime today or this week?
I'd just LOVE to see what would happen (in the wake of that) here. ;-)
Yes, I agree with your thoughts.
We are (pretty much) just along for the ride. And often (most often) opportunities like this company are created for the whales of investing and not the bait-fish.
As well, you are correct about "the meal". We still eat from the same table, though.
Well, Hey "bubba"!
If I were really preoccupied with short sellers, I'd be one. I'm not.
If you can't understand how shorts make a living via concerted selling, I can't help you with that.
Only you can. Go check out a book from the library. I'm willing to bet that there are books out there on short selling; and your library probably has them.
If Andrew Left can run (and profit from) Citron on the basis of shorting and attack as many companies as he has, I'm sure that what I am seeing here is not conspiracy, or "seeing things", etc.
If you have read the posts, you know the reasons.
Whether they are professional people or run-of-the-mill, generally, I have found that people that take exception with my dislike of shorts, are shorts themselves. Shorting has long been used as more than just some tool to make money. I have entertained discussions with shorts in the past and I have heard many, many of the reasons that they make to rationalize why they approve of shorting.
I could sit here and explain it all to you, but I'm not going to.
I've researched it myself; you go right on ahead and do your own research on it, if you are so inclined.
I find it very curious that a professional, self described geneticist shows up here, and rather than talk about the company, their products or their stock; instead you have chosen to focus on me and ask me to explain things for you that you don't understand. Perplexing. Whatever.
Seems more like a psychologist than a geneticist to me. But again, whatever.
Regardless, your confusion over my views won't change much here.
Once again, welcome, and "let the games begin".
That's sort of like saying don't blame pedophiles for child molestation or don't blame arsonists for fraudulent fires.
Other companies hire "boiler rooms" for short services. What's going on here is DEFINITELY attributable to shorts.
I have taken positions in many, many, many, MANY stocks in companies and I have NEVER had to short sell to get a position which I could profit from.
If a price is too high, all one has to do is wait for a little while and be patient. Change (up or down) is a constant in this game.
As of 04/15/16, Insti ownership had risen from 68% to 70.14%
Short Interest had fallen from 14.88% of float to 13.84% for the same date.
So there are some small improvements there.
The shorts are here for a reason (other than filling their pockets).
All of the reasons which have been discussed previously are why they're here.
The success of the Sequel, the Roche partnership, the subject of PacBio being buyable, etc. It's all been discussed here before.
They're here for a reason, it's not hap-hazard. It's also why insti-interest is up around 70%. Same, same.
I realize that I am preaching to the choir here; just remember, thanks to our miserable SEC (securities ex commision) and their move to change the uptick rule back in 2007, there isn't a single stock that you can go to and NOT find shorts.
There like litter or those plastic grocery bags; you literally can find them everywhere. Since 2007, they have built themselves a whole cottage industry just defiling companies and corporations.
And now, no matter how hard they try, the SEC can't put THAT toothpaste back in the tube. It NEVER should have been done in the first place (uptick rule).
That is a total load of bunk.
there are more than 3 support levels between where PACB is now and the $8 mark. .
One of them is triple support, strength 10.
So, "your eyeballs are brown".
Good luck navigating it, I'm not telling you what or where they are.
$7.87 is close to a support level, but I doubt you're getting there.
Lovely, just LOVELY.
I could use more days like this one.
I know the shorts won't stay on the run for long.
Whoever is employing them will have them here (again shortly) to try to re-double their efforts.
I suspect that even thought they can read the handwriting on the wall, it will only serve to make them all the more desperate.
All the same though, I think that "the horse is out of the barn" for them; and it will be down right impossible to get that horse back in.
A great, GREAT day though. Have a nice weekend. :-)
My old engineering director used to tell us, "The way to eat the elephant is, one bite at a time."
And there is the road-map.......
Well said. Inder did make a good call.
I would say that $7.50 is gone for a long, long time (if ever); and $8 would be one helluva stretch on a horribly bad day.
If someone(s) wanted to get back in at a better price, they should look at a fairly wide gap around $9.30. Might have to wait for it for a little while, but May is coming (Sell in May and go away?), maybe then the opportunity. But, PACB has shown that it's worth is far, FAR above $9.30 so count that it probably won't stay there that long.
In 3 months, we get another glimpse at the goose laying golden eggs. ;-)
Well, Billy, for an island-beer guy you had some spot-on guesses and put the pieces together REALLY well. Nice insights no matter where they came from.
Stick around; eh? ;-)
that country music song is playing backwards again.
We getting it ALLLLLLLLLL back !!!!
THAT is what I can REALLY tell you.
Too bad for you Sybil, couldn't happen to a "nicer" person..... :-P