"" If gold should rise 30%, the earnings potential of GORO will rise exponentially ""
Actually, no, not exponentially. Do you know the definition of an exponential rise?
And IP is correct about Seeking Alpha. It should really be called Pumping Positions.
goldbooger / amadeaus, YOU were the one that got wiped out by concentrating your net worth in GORO. You told us that you deliberately use concentrated positions. I've always recommended against that, but you wouldn't listen. I use sound portfolio theory to limit exposure to any one position. My short-the-bubble fund expanded by orders of magnitude while NFLX did most of its appreciation. That allowed me to raise my cost basis quite a bit. Obviously, I'm down on NFLX, but my strategy has been working - even through we are only in the early stages of it reaching its maximum potential. It's also recently attracted quite a bit of interest - because I'm kinda the only game in town. Investors are finding my via referrals, etc. It's sad that you can't understand this, but someday you'll look back and say, "damn, natasha was completely right about everything so she surely made her investors a lot of money."
Ha ha, goldbooger/amedaus. My average cost is much higher. I'm doing great. There is a growing interest in my strategy because of all these bubble valuations.
"" I also see very significant improvement in his attitude and capabilities while most of you seem very set on re-living past mistakes. ""
This isn't true. I see improvements in Jason, also. But he mislead shareholders about last year's guidance this year! How is that a past mistake? YOU claimed that people here were penalizing Jason for the sins of his father, and I'm telling you that everyone here knows that Jason has (and is continuing to have) his own sins. Less sins than before? Yes, but the sins continue.
"" the stock keeps going up. "" - Hey, fake natasha, I was short GORO while it was going up in the high 20s. I wasn't worried then, and I'm certainly not worried now.
"" People who take those kind of risks (repeatedly I might add) are known to be sort of nutsy so expecting Bill to maintain the same standards as someone like Jack Welch was never really to be expected. ""
Being truthful with shareholders isn't some high standard that requires comparison to Jack Welch, Barry. None of us have a problem with Bill wanting to take risks by aggressively build a mine without a formal resource report. We fault him for not being honest with shareholders. I also fault him for paying, and boasting about, a dividend while he was still selling stock to raise capital.
"" As far as cursing the son with the sins of the father is concerned ""
I think the son can be cursed for his own sins. Jason lied to a conference full of investors when he claimed that GORO's gross margins were cash flow. The moderator even cornered Jason into definitively making this claim - which he didn't even hesitate in making. This is why even people that claim to have CFO experience (Hockey-CFO) were duped into thinking that GORO's gross margins were cash flow. I also think it was Jason that claimed that the Canadian stock exchanges wouldn't allow them to list GORO stock unless GORO did an equity offering. This was another deceptive statement to shareholders. And it was surely Jason that was responsible for claiming that GORO's stated production goal was 80k. The goal was clearly the range of 80k to 100k. I really don't think Jason is without sin, Barry.
"" in no way representative of any cronyism, self dealing, etc. ""
I'm not sure how you can confidently say this. Sure, it's possible that the board really wanted to get rid of this house and they pressured Bill to buy it. In such a case, it's possible that Bill Reid's trust facilitated a quick transaction at a fair price. But it's also possible that Bill demanded a sweetheart deal. We don't know enough to make this determination.
However, one thing we know for sure, enough of the GORO stock that Bill Reid transferred to his trust was sold in order to purchase this house. And the disclosure of these sales were never provided to the public - so we don't know when they occurred and what price Bill got for them. Was the transfer to the trust (which is quite revokable) done just to hide insider sale of GORO stock from the shareholders?
The" William W Reid Living Trust."
The trust obviously had to have sold stock in order to pay for the mansion. I'm also wondering how much GORO is paying in rent. The $26k difference between the publicly listed purchase price and the one in the 10K could be attorney fees.
"" profitable with infrastructure and mine area development continuing while many others are either closing facilities, going under, or borrowing to continue operations. ""
That's great, but the stock is still overvalued at these prices.
"" do the math please ""
100% of your investment divided by 4% per year = 25 years. You aren't compounding your dividend. That's not how return calculations work. But if you do use your 4% dividend to buy back more stock, then you are risking the fact that the stock could go to zero if the company runs out of recoverable resource.
"" their base metals have been increasing during this same period. ""
No, the reserve numbers I gave you were for all their resources - that includes base metals.
"" why aren't you using the YE 2014 numbers ""
Ha ha. I was hoping you'd ask that. Dec 31, 2014 numbers were down from September.
Dec 31, 2011: Cash + Receivables = $77 million
Sep 30, 2014: Cash + Receivables = $35 million
Dec 31, 2014: Cash + Receivables = $33 million
This isn't a growing cash balance.
"" The fact is that she cannot tell you that this stock is overpriced. ""
I most certainly can, and that's exactly what I'm telling you.
"" pls explain how this "overvalued" stock keeps growing its resource ""
Did you even read the last report from GORO? Their grades are tumbling.
2012 - 4.30
2013 - 3.72
2014 - 3.21
2012 - 355
2013 - 326
2014 - 296
This means that they are having to increasingly spend more money moving more earth just to produce the same amount of gold and sliver.
Also, The Reids had been telling people that they had 1.5 million tonnes of resource for years. They boasted that their April 2012 report showed 1.47 million tonnes at the time, and the new report is showing 1.54 million tonnes. If an increase of 0.07 tonnes in over 3 years gets you excited, then I really don't think you should be valuing resource stocks.
"" adds to is treasury ""
Dec 31, 2011: Cash + Receivables = $77 million
Sep 30, 2014: Cash + Receivables = $35 million
It's great that they recently stopped hemorrhaging cash and managed to drift around cash-flow break-even, but I don't see how that generates any optimism for any upside from here. It would take 25 years to get your investment back on a 4% dividend, and I don't think their resource will hold out nearly that long. That's why you shouldn't use dividend yield to value a resource company.
Another idiot that thinks a PE ratio is a credible valuation tool for a natural resource company. It's funny to see the pumpers hype this stock by claiming that gold could go all the way up to $1350!
It's obvious that someone is being paid to hype this stock on the yahoo message boards so that their firm can try to dump the stock for a gain. We'll see how long they're interested in posting messages from their deceptively named accounts. Maybe the technicals caught someone's interest, but it certainly wasn't the 4Q earnings report that was just released. That wouldn't be able to get anyone excited. Their guidance range is less than last years.
And I don't lie about anything on here. You can check the validity of everything I write.
I'm not paid to bash GORO, but it's very likely that you're being paid to hype it today in an effort to pump up the stock price so that you can dump it for a small gain.
In fact, I don't bash GORO. I provide objective analysis - analysis which has proven credible over the years. I'm still holding a very small short position in this stock.
Ha ha. Some pumper took the time to make a fake account for IP and me. So funny. Do they really think that guidance of 80k to 90k ounces is going to impress the street? Do they really think that this would cause any short to cover?
Btw, short interest is down to 2.5 million shares. Remember when amedaus/goldbooger would put out his short interest report every month? He claimed that it was going to be impossible for shorts to cover without driving the price up. I carefully explained that shorts can cover by selling to fleeing Longs. I'm not sure why that was so complicated for him to understand. I also loved how he would claim that it was good for Longs when the short interest increased and it was also good for Longs when the short interest decreased. So much fun back then!
Ha ha. I can't believe that board is still going.
As you say, GORO always has an excuse at the ready. It's never mea culpa. They should just come out and say that they failed to meet KPMG's high audit standards despite the fact that they had a year to get it done properly. As many of you know, I actually don't see the audit shortcomings as a material issue. The Final Four auditing firms can be difficult for companies with small management teams. I'm happy to give them a pass on this issue (assuming they can still get their K out by April 1 - like they did last year).
But I can't give them a pass on their efforts to shift blame. It exacerbates the monumental credibility problem they have.
"" I am looking at it as a business, which is going through the growing pains of a smaller new business, but which I hope longer term will reward me.""
But why are you valuing this turn-around business with such a high market cap? Is it purely because you think that the stock is cheap because it was previously overvalued even more.?