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True Religion Apparel, Inc. Message Board

natrl9 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 17, 2014 11:06 AM Member since: Apr 10, 1998
  • on their downgrade from buy to hold, citing valuation. They also cited MAR stock price rise in 2014. Yes, MAR has outperformed the market considerably this year, but in 2013 MAR lagged. The market growth is pegged at 10%, thus the phrase we hear all the time, "trading at 16X next years growth." If we take MAR growth for the next 3 years annually, not just one, at 20% X 1.6 we get a multiple 0f 32, pretty much where it is now. Cramer mentioned something similar to this as well on CNBC this morning. I'm not sure why UBS would not consider 2017 eps of 4.32(20% annually) as a buy. 108 - 129 price target. IBD ran an article featuring the entire hotel sector a couple weeks ago, maybe the 11/3 ed., which pretty much outlined everything MAR mentioned in the last CC.

  • natrl9 by natrl9 Oct 28, 2014 7:48 PM Flag

    Huge revpar growth for N.A., better margins, great outlook for 4th Q, and 2015. I would like to think a dividend increase once again next spring. Congratulations to all :)

  • natrl9 natrl9 Oct 21, 2014 6:15 PM Flag

    I bet Gartman is eating those shorts right about now. Cramer said yesterday they were buying Marriott back, as he gave a list of about 12 stocks hit recently. And today it looks like the market still has an appetite for companies with great earnings.

  • Nine cents per share on a qtrly. basis. Gotta think this bodes well for tomorrows eps report. Cash flow must be improving.GLTAL.

  • Reply to

    JUMP NOW JERRY!

    by firerock2 Oct 15, 2014 12:09 PM
    natrl9 natrl9 Oct 15, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    In a strange sense, good news came today, as interest rates for homes are back around 3% once again. The fed will not be raising interest rates in 2015, most likely. Market damage is mainly technical, not fundamental. WGO forward pe is 11-12? Market was trading around forward pe of 16-17, not sure what it is now.

  • Reply to

    DON'T PANIC!

    by bob.bull99 Oct 15, 2014 7:43 AM
    natrl9 natrl9 Oct 15, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    Off 15% from the highs. Trading at a pe of 24 for 2014 earnings. Forward pe of 20 for 20% growth in 2015. Normally a great place to buy. Showing some buying at this level, a good place to start buying for future growth.

  • Reply to

    SMH. what the hell is going on?

    by lady.domina2 Sep 30, 2014 3:49 PM
    natrl9 natrl9 Sep 30, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    Last week there was less than what analysts expected from the housing industry, WGO being in the building/construction sector. Today, Chicago PMI and comsumer sentiment also less than expected, all part of the growth picture which the small caps is largely comprised of. Since mid-July small caps have been under pressure. Todays Russell 2000 was down close to 1.5%. Good price if WGO hits their numbers/beats/raises, etc.

  • Reply to

    Price target raised

    by john.ohare88 Jul 27, 2014 9:46 PM
    natrl9 natrl9 Jul 31, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

    Thanks ORD, I'm assuming 12 month target based on multiple of 30 on eps of 2.53 for 2014. If strong jobs number tomorrow, great news for MAR, stay the course, even if market drops. Buy the dip. Held 50 DMA of 64.44 today on good volume. MAR bullish on last half of 2014, great to see the eps for 2014, given the .07 impairment charges.

  • I bought 100k shares last year @ .0018, and pushed it aside. Lo and behold, they doubled 1st qtr. rev and eps from last year. This was announced 3 weeks ago. Someone discovered it today, up 168% and still way undervalued. Extrapolate the eps over 4 qtr.s, and annual eps is over 3 cents. With growth like this, slap a minimum pe of 30, and a reasonable price of the stock is a dollar. Look for newsletters telling the NWGC story. 144M shares today.

  • Reply to

    DDD-(Dividend Declaration Date) Approaches

    by papa9noel May 9, 2014 8:25 AM
    natrl9 natrl9 May 9, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    Good call on the divi. All around good news today as Argon raised the 12 month target to 70. I didn't think the company would raise the divi until maybe next qtr., as the avg. share price paid on the buyback could be a little higher than I calculated. I think they will give back to the shareholders the 2.5 B (from 2B in 2013) they had talked about after Q1. I'm hoping the market sees MAR as BOTH a growth stock and a value stock. :)

  • natrl9 by natrl9 May 9, 2014 7:35 PM Flag

    Just a couple thoughts, I'm happy to hear the news regarding the refinancing work that is being done. It was noted the increase in both stock price , and volume, increased substantially after the 1st qtr. call. Libya had come with 9.9M in receivables, and still owe around 53M. The refinancing IS NOT contingent upon Libya making payments in full. Current refincing deal would add around .35 annually to eps. Add that to next years estimate, and HIL earns .61. Put a minimum multiple of 25, HIL is at 15.25. HIL would also benefit if Libya is able to continue the payment in full by resuming work in Libya contracted out. It was noted the recent slowdown of payments was due to a change in PM's of Libya. Upcoming in the next 30 days are 3 conferences which HIL will attend. I think there was some good accumulation after the rug was pulled from the stock at the open. Good to hear that HIL also thought there were more opp's in the US market, and still hopeful of getting their big chance in China.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Looking forward to 2014

    by natrl9 Feb 20, 2014 10:38 AM
    natrl9 natrl9 Apr 29, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    Another nice qtr. TTM eps is now 2.14, with a good market, short term 60 is attainable. Raised projections for 2014 eps by .10 on the under to .08 on the top to 2.29 - 2.53. Analysts have eps pegged at 2.40. Pipeline looks solid, 2015 looking better all the time. Congratulations to all :)

  • Reply to

    Mercer beats Duke!!!

    by groverneuse Mar 21, 2014 2:27 PM
    natrl9 natrl9 Mar 21, 2014 7:07 PM Flag

    Although there are varying reports of either only 16 or 3 entries left, without any wrong picks, it appears the Duke loss was the big culprit as the bracket buster...

  • Reply to

    Looking forward to 2014

    by natrl9 Feb 20, 2014 10:38 AM
    natrl9 natrl9 Mar 21, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    Good day today on options expiry with the strong open and close on over 2X normal volume. And the price target upgrade by Baird? (see summary page) had to have helped as well. Preliminary numbers for 2015 are out, with concensus around 2.85. At a multiple of 27, price target of 77 for spring of 2016 representing a 40% ROI not including dividends. Last time I did the calcs, MAR still has room to raise the divi this year by .03/qtr. if they do return to shareholders slightly more than last year. They indicated so on the filings from 4th qtr. numbers. Too many variables as to pinpoint an actual date. As always, imho. GLTAL

  • Reply to

    Imagine Results

    by nettlesm24 Mar 21, 2014 3:27 PM
    natrl9 natrl9 Mar 21, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    I think it will be sometime early next week, now that options are out of the way. GLTAL

  • Reply to

    Another net loss

    by dolcstavg Mar 10, 2014 4:48 PM
    natrl9 natrl9 Mar 10, 2014 5:58 PM Flag

    dolc, they beat handily on just about every metric. .02 is only 800k on the miss. Raised guidance on the revs for 2014, and sounds like a real possibility the remaining 52M will be forthcoming from Libya. Eliminating just half of the quarterly debt payments equates to about .07 in eps per qtr, .28 for the year. And per the last pr, more Libyan projects are a real possibility as well. I think it will be a great call tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Wow

    by fcardman Mar 7, 2014 1:11 PM
    natrl9 natrl9 Mar 7, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    Forming a bullish chart pattern the last 6 months, basing for 8 weeks last fall, climbing to the mid 4's, then basing for the last 6 weeks, although a little looser than the previous base. Recent pr's of now over 1B backlog and another 6M payment from Libya is great news. Volume really picked up after the Libyan news, with ascending triangle bullish chart pattern into today, finishing at a closing 52 week high. Obviously the big carrot is the remaining 52M from Libya, of which mgmt. seemed very positive for payment in full in the near future. If that were come to fruition, I think mid 6's would be the next target just by looking at the high going back to Jan of 2012. GLTAL.

  • natrl9 by natrl9 Feb 28, 2014 12:15 AM Flag

    Todays pr obviouly great news. Sure sounds like the remaining 50M is on the way as well. Great to see future contracts in the offing. The refinancing of the debt hopefully is next. CC on the 10th should get some attention.

  • Good qtr., depending on what analyst MAR either met the numbers of fell just short. Concensus for the year was $2 eps, and thats where they came in. For eps in 2014, MAR gave a range of 2.29 - 2.45, with analysts around 2.33. So it appears they feel the possibility exists to come in with higher numbers. My price target is 60, Aside from the economy crumbling, anything under 50 is a strong buy.

  • natrl9 natrl9 Feb 18, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    My take is the stock will challenge 14 before the AD results come out sometime in March. The CC tonite will be important. Going out on a limb, will open higher tomorrow. :)

TRLG
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