I totally agree with you about those media stocks and everything to do with axll. How do these annalists justify such high price targets on fb,twtr,tsla,ddd and so many others!!! As far as axll goes, chlorine and caustic soda prices according to axlls management should rise over time, nat. gas prices will come down as the winter weather ends, housing should have a good year, and we should continue to see positive results for their chlorovinyls segment, as their price increases are working. As time goes by, axll will continue to reduce their debt burden, and shrink their interest payments, which currently cost them at least $60 million a year at this point. I believe that axll could double or even as much as triple their margins from where they are at now, if all the stars align in their favor. In short, this stock is way too cheap and unloved, vs westlake which is A LOT more expensive with half the growth!!!! Why people are buying westlake as opposed to axll as got me completely baffled. Anyway, The stock should eventually be trading at more appropriate levels, as mr market realizes that it's wrong.
Goldman Sachs upgraded Axiall Corporation (NYSE: AXLL) from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $60.00 (from $45.00). Analyst Brian Maguire said bad news is priced in and EPS could double at peak.
Maguire said, "We now believe several near-term bad news items are priced into the shares. AXLL shares have been the worst performer in our coverage over the past year (-35% vs. SPX +20%) and YTD (-12% vs. SPX +2%). We believe the current price more than reflects headwinds that kept us sidelined since reinstating on 2/4/13. Specifically, lower caustic prices (from new industry supply), higher nat gas costs, ethylene contract resets, arrested PVC margins, Aromatics oversupply, and operational issues are now widely known headwinds that we think are priced in. We believe shares could appreciate 43% in the next 12 months as fundamentals rebound."
Wow, didn't think it was going to act this good after the quarter!!! Glad I went "all in" and bought more right before the close ahead of earnings. There is no question in my mind now that his gets over $80, and maybe even $100 a share!!! I just wished I help the shares I had, when I picked this up at $17ish!!! Ugg, I missed so much $$ by selling this too quick!!!!
read the transcript for their cc, & found this:
Jeffrey Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.
I got 3 questions, hopefully, they're all pretty quick. First one was, unless I missed it, I didn't see any published specific well results for the fourth quarter '13 completions as you've done in the past, and I wondered if this is a change of practice going into the future.
Michael G. Moore - Interim Chief Executive Officer, President and Chief Financial Officer
You're exactly right. It is a change of practice where we feel like we're at the point of the play now where we have a lot of activities going on, and we simply can't continue to talk about well-by-well information. So you're going to hear us talking about activities in the different windows of the play in averages. But so it is a change of conversation about how we talk about the play.
The production guidance is great!!!! BUT, it was already known prior to the quarter, so it's old news. The earnings figure was great, but it's revenue that is more important then earnings. Earnings can legally be manipulated through clever accounting and other ways to make it look better then what it really is. Revenue you can't do that, and that is where you derive your profits from. Overall, I think the quarter was okay so far, (still need to read a lot more into this quarter) and it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.
guidance of 50-60k boepd. purchased 8.2k acres in the utica for 185m with 1k boepd. Didn't see any well results for the Utica . will keep looking.
ahh, it was a bad hedge that caused the revenue figure to be light. ( only read the headlines) 85.2m on revenue before!!!!
Johnny, I totally agree with you. If we can get some good earnings today, there's no question that this makes a new all time high. I purchased more on this small pullback today ahead of the earnings, as I'm confident that they will be good. It will also be interesting to see who the new ceo will be!!!!!! (if they choose to announce that in their quarter.
This stock is getting very unfairly treated. Great earnings considering the challenging short term conditions, and it gives it all back and more. What makes it worse, is wlk makes the exact same chemicals, and continues to make all time highs!!!!!!!! It is driving me crazy!!! Well, nothing left to do but bury my head in the sand, hold my nose, and trust my research. The only things that have changed for the worse are much more elevated natural gas prices, and a weak housing market due to weather. These are TEMPORARY setbacks, and I believe once the weather gets warmer, you will see nat gas prices fall pretty good, and the housing market improve, thanks to the weather and the building season.
Hold on guys, this could be a bumpy ride.
Wow, what a surge today!!!!!! Although, this is a temporary boost imo, thanks to the colder/snowy weather that the U.S has experienced. Oil is now over $103 a barrel as well!!! Now if only gpor can get their earnings back on track, this thing is going to fly!!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
While I do share the concerns with others, and I pointed it out a while about gpor not being able to make the numbers for many quarters now, I believe a lot of bad news is already priced into the stock. The guidance came in at the low end of the estimates, but it's still pretty good, and we've already known that gpor has turned itself from a 90ish % oil company, to a lot more natural gas/ngls. This is already out there!!!!!! As far as why the stock has been going down prior to this news, I believe it might have to do with that bakken train derailment. I suspect people are selling these stocks, because they're afraid politicians will curtail production in order to try to ensure safety in not just the bakken, but in other plays as well. This is a $80-85 stock imo. I will VOW NOT to make the same mistake with gpor as I did when we were all questioning it when it went from $38ish to $15.90ish because of wexford. I will trust my research, and I will buy more when I feel it's appropriate.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This is EXACTLY what I wanted axiall to do for years now. Build a cracker plant. If this happens, we'd be looking at potentially higher margins, and more revenue as they would be able to compete better with their competitors, which should translate into a higher stock price. Hopefully, the board approves of this as I feel it is a smart move. I repurchased my shares back at $46.75 and am looking for between $57-60 a share.