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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

navkram 23 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 21, 2014 11:34 AM Member since: Sep 3, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Indecision Time

    by satiyeh2005 Nov 20, 2014 4:07 PM
    navkram navkram Nov 21, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    Do the research
    -excellent earnings and dividend growing
    -excellent finance metrics, margins, defaults
    -trading under tangible book with plenty of cash and a buyback planned

    If you don't buy the shares up the company will and the earnings/share will grow even faster.

    My big disappointment is that the buyback is not as smart or aggressive as it should be. If Andy had contracted the buyback program to a good high frequency outfit the company could have kicked the short traders teeth in and shares would trade at a much more appropriate level.

    As it is all I can say is DON"T USE STOP ORDERS, you will get screwed out of your shares.

  • Reply to

    My comment on "Can Uber be fixed" story FWIW

    by navkram Nov 20, 2014 12:55 PM
    navkram navkram Nov 21, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    I never said they destroy the value of medallions, that is your lie that you keep repeating. I am just pointing out how uber is just out to take 150% of the profit margin and stick the drivers with all the costs and liabilities for the piles of regulations they violate!

    Cabbies are rightfully #$%$ that Uber is free to take their work by violating all pertinent laws!

  • Uber is not revolutionary. It is not technology. It is a gypsy cab company! Every third world country has them. First world countries have regulations against them because Gypsy cabs are endless sources of crime and injury. Uber is the biggest BECAUSE they play dirtier than the competition. You can't just clean up Uber into some benevolent monopoly -there is no such thing. The finance they are running on DEMANDS that they be ruthless #$%$.

    The only rational thing to do is to re-examine taxi regulations and ENFORCE THEM! Uber is breaking many laws or more specifically enticing drivers to break them by lying! Uber keeps saying their drivers are vetted and that solves all problems. BULL! What they don't say is the truth, that Uber is based on the premise that all liability falls on the unregulated driver and Uber just rakes in money!

    This avoidance of liability is the basis of why every city REGULATES TAXIS! If these services are left unregulated there will be an endless crime spree as one outfit tries to take share by dirtier tricks than the last!

  • What a jerk! GM is the only major manufacturer that DIDN'T buy cheap Takata airbags BECAUSE they used unstable propellant! Yet he simultaneously berates automakers for not finding flaw -then goes on to berate GM as if they failed -THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE! GM stuck to more expensive air bags with more stable proven propellant. Breed was the supplier when I worked on the program.

  • Reply to

    Apologies, Uber needs a a big one fast

    by navkram Nov 18, 2014 11:23 AM
    navkram navkram Nov 19, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    I have done some reading and think I know why they need so much cash. They have a HUGE dirty tricks campaign going in all the major markets. They are hiring thousands to create fictitious accounts on other services, enter phantom fares, try to recruit competing service drivers and sabotage their services. This will no doubt lead to lawsuits and indictments.

    Uber is also trying to push drivers into buying expensive vehicles with high cost loans -making them dependent on Uber work. My father ran the testing relationship between a major auto Mfr and US cab companies -the maintenance and depreciation for cabs is disturbingly high. Sticking it to the drivers, well lets just say I sure hope they don't fall for it, for their sake. When many of these drivers go bankrupt in a year Uber may be on the hook for residual value problems on these loans.

    The last reason Uber must raise cash now is that their growth rate is certain to fall and along with it the ridiculous high valuation investors will pay.

    Uber needs a huge war chest before they move from "dirty deeds done dirt cheap" to expensive defense lawyers and write downs.

  • Reply to

    Apologies, Uber needs a a big one fast

    by navkram Nov 18, 2014 11:23 AM
    navkram navkram Nov 19, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    Reposted:
    I think TAXI is well protected from any Uber disruption but share price is clearly damaged by their claims so I check it's progress. That said, I think they really stepped in something with this. Absolute PR kryptonite. They attacked the wrong feminazzi. She has taken the opportunity of new fame to weave her passive aggressive response with a greatest hits of Uber violations. I am offended by it's characterizations of silicon valley in general and men in particular, but each violation is supported by some undeniable fact. And she spins these into a pretty nasty portrait.

    Look up "the-moment-i-learned-just-how-far-uber-will-go-to-silence-journalists-and-attack-women" by Sarah Lacy of pando.

  • Reply to

    Apologies, Uber needs a a big one fast

    by navkram Nov 18, 2014 11:23 AM
    navkram navkram Nov 19, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    What happened to my post? It wasn't all screwed up yesterday.

  • Reply to

    Apologies, Uber needs a a big one fast

    by navkram Nov 18, 2014 11:23 AM
    navkram navkram Nov 18, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    Some predictions
    -Uber will h#$%$ve problems with this next round of fin#$%$nce -it might even be #$%$ down round #$%$nd some investors will w#$%$nt to exit.
    -In NYC there will be investig#$%$tions of l#$%$bor #$%$nd business pr#$%$ctice viol#$%$tions including hiring #$%$ TLC executive th#$%$t stole the personnel inform#$%$tion of #$%$ll licensed drivers -used to recruit them #$%$w#$%$y.
    -the new m#$%$yor will be #$%$ friend of the TLC #$%$nd enemy of Uber
    -The ide#$%$ th#$%$t Uber could domin#$%$te NYC ride service will die #$%$fter #$%$n expensive protr#$%$cted leg#$%$l b#$%$ttle.
    -the recent c#$%$r fin#$%$nce de#$%$ls m#$%$y lose p#$%$rtners -under pressure from feminist groups

  • Reply to

    Big Volume Spike Today

    by seanintlmom Nov 17, 2014 9:15 PM
    navkram navkram Nov 18, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    There is a technique to 'harvest' stop loss orders called gunning for stops. Stop orders are standing sell at market orders that only need a sell price below a particular number to trigger. So all it takes for a broker to make a pile of money at the stoppers expense is to clear the buy orders down to the trigger and cover the short with the volume the stops enter. It's all done by high frequency trades.

    The lesson is NEVER USE STOPLOSS ORDERS! They should be renamed "guaranteed loss order".

  • Apparently last night the uber CEO suggested that he will hire investigators to dig up dirt on reporters that report negative news on Uber, at a press dinner no less! He singled out a tough female reporter by name.

    I am thinking that this will be a problem for their latest round of funding, and it opens the flood gate for investigations of dirty tricks, the organization clearly has no moral principals and now they have stepped on two powerful political groups -working women and freedom of the press. My prediction is this will be used against them in NYC. Controlling evil monopolistic Uber just became a liberal cause celeb.

  • Reply to

    VALUE OF A NYC TAXI MEDALLION?

    by eagleeyes4utoo Nov 10, 2014 1:46 PM
    navkram navkram Nov 17, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    Peculiar that the 'foreclosed' medallion lists a transfer price and a percent share sale. Also peculiar that this transfer is concurrent with the successful sale of 200 restricted medallions. An unrestricted medallion should be worth more but a fraction of a medallion would be fouled by remaining holders. It looks like a bad partner being expelled.

  • Reply to

    There goes the dividend....down the toilet?

    by eagleeyes4utoo Nov 11, 2014 1:55 PM
    navkram navkram Nov 17, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    Medallions have gone up in value generally but they have gone down for short periods. It is all irrelevant to TAXI because of the high value/loan.

    Beyond that fact there is no indication that medallion values will decline. There was a recent successful auction of 200 additional medallions. That's over $200 million for the city for what you claim can't get a dime. There was a story in the NYT lamenting that it is very hard for drivers to ever own their own medallion because the price will not come down. Search '1-million-medallions-stifling-the-dreams-of-cabdrivers' and 'NYT'. Another important point in the article is that the mayor elect is a big supporter of cab companies and the outgoing mayor is the opposite. TAXI cash flow is excellent and secure. Uber cash flow is outrageously bad and in the case of NYC likely to get much worse.

  • Reply to

    VALUE OF A NYC TAXI MEDALLION?

    by eagleeyes4utoo Nov 10, 2014 1:46 PM
    navkram navkram Nov 17, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    Well then I have a SUPER money making deal for you. You collect up these worthless medallions and meet me at the L&T office, and I will buy them for $400K each (for corporate not individual) -the amount of loan value TAXI holds.

    Now I have a question for you, Uber raised $1.2 billion a few months ago. They don't buy ANYTHING, no cars, hire no drivers, produce nothing but a tacky little free ap and a few servers, and now they need another billion dollars. My question is 'How on earth did they blow that much money that fast?' TAXI has been financing medallions for decades for less! Don't you at least wonder why a company breaking the law has such poor cash flow when the company that works with the law is a cash cow?

    You keep claiming Medallion value will crash when it stops rising. It is not more likely that Uber share value will crash before it ever sees a profit!?

  • Reply to

    There goes the dividend....down the toilet?

    by eagleeyes4utoo Nov 11, 2014 1:55 PM
    navkram navkram Nov 17, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    Taxi dividend has done nothing but increase for years. What makes you think it would reverse?

  • I saw the filing and presumed it was immediate, but I got a notice in the mail that it would begin 30 days from the mailing, which was dated oct 28. I get Nov. 27 on that basis.

  • Reply to

    Loans are now at 40% of LTV (Loan to Value)

    by kaptain_lou Nov 11, 2014 11:16 PM
    navkram navkram Nov 17, 2014 9:33 AM Flag

    It has been at that level for quite a while and I think that is just the medallion loan number. Taxi has lots of other asset backed loans with lower LTV because they are newer and have higher returns.

    It's funny that I was just reminding you of this same statistic. It is the important point.

  • navkram navkram Nov 17, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    Nice for collateral growth but Taxi has no direct exposure to medallion price. Collateral levels are already past 60% on medallion loans. Kind of humorous in light of eaglepoop's posts.

  • Reply to

    What happens if oil drops?

    by navkram Oct 2, 2014 1:03 PM
    navkram navkram Oct 2, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    Nat gas 100% hedged through 2017 -majority of production
    60% hedged oil for 2015 at $96+
    50% 2016 and looks like ~25% of oil hedged in 2017 (by eyeball if no production increase).
    See LINE presentation. It looks like they backed off buying hedges as out year prices dropped.
    The point is that LINE profit does not drop with oil or gas price. Lots of BS posts about div cut need to be countered.

  • Reply to

    Linn is officially Wall Street's whipping boy

    by wall.street13 Oct 2, 2014 12:45 PM
    navkram navkram Oct 2, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    I support management. Kinder takes a pile of money from the till every quarter so he can afford the lawyers. LINE management delivers and make their money from the same class of shares we own. LINE is getting big enough that analysts should do the defending.

  • Oil in the $80s cuts off the most expensive producers.
    -oil sands -particularly sensitive if nat gas does not fall
    -deep water drilling
    -unstable governments
    -remote locations -expensive to ship
    -high decline wells -even if they are profitable

    There is a lot of production that will be cut at ~$80

    LINE is none of these and has the longest and largest hedge book. LINE should be vastly outperforming the sector on fundamentals. Short term under-performance is due to LINE's thinner trade vol/ float.

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