In today's 'flight to safety' market 'A' is a great rating. It puts them on the buy side of irrational trade when the majority of the market is well into the sell side.
The kicker might be
-the end of the 'unicorn' -uber has supported it's lawbreaking with armies of lawyers and lobbyists in addition to fabricated protests by paid protesters -all funded by billions of dollars of investment at stupefying valuations. The investment wave has run dry and even reversed. There is a colossal race to sell shares in these overpriced private companies and a 'down round' is inevitable. The last investment uber took was from a russian mobster and though it was reported to be at the same valuation as previous round, it likely guaranteed a high return. If uber funds again at the same or lower price, the last round gets additional shares to get to the designated profit. So early investors will get diluted at an accelerated rate.
-labor rights -uber is the most obvious abuser of contract labor. As soon as the politicians see cracks in the uber lawyers defense they will pile on to bring uber back to US standards. There are loads of lawsuits already underway and there isn't even a legal path for union or collective representation -YET! Collective bargaining is the absolute MINIMUM right.
-taxes -uber driver taxes are a MESS and the profitability of drivers depends on complicated deductions showing they made next to no profit, ...or blatant omission and lying. Most drivers will take the later rout, and many will get busted. The bottom line is every tax season, the majority of drivers realize driving for uber is a waste of time and not worth the hassle and risk. For politicians they will see a huge population exempted from paying employment taxes. Traslated, millions of voters being abused by billionaire uber Aholes.
Not surprising, given their huge exposure they would be inclined to defend it. The quiet period before earnings kept buyers away. This relief rally was surprising only in volume. Next we will have the attack article -same story every Q, ranting about the percentage change of the percentage past due, medallions all going to zero.... If you follow the trend, the story has been scaring fewer and fewer holders each Q, and this Q we have plenty of time to buy before the X-div date. The shorts are in deep and need to get out before they have to pay.
On the long side we are just a bunch of small fries accumulating and collecting divs. We don't play the same game of push the price. Mostly we just take advantage of the short propensity to to spike the price down to see who they can scare. The good news from the report is that management IS buying back shares and they have stopped reporting it. The absence of reports made us wonder. The other good news is that earnings are far in excess of distributions so we can look forward to more buybacks or more consumer loan growth. Yield is stupid high so raising the div would be a waste. I would like to see consumer loans tip past 50% AND have the share buybacks to stabilize the price -attracting long term holders (in cash accounts that don't loan to shorts) to the monster dividend.
that is interesting. It makes me think of a recent article I read about an investigation into broker behavior in shorting. The article noted a fine paid by a broker for charging for a service it did not perform -that service being locating and borrowing shares to short.
When an entity wants to start a major short campaign they need a lot of services -kind of like an investment banking team but inverted. The unique part is the broker has excellent information about where the shares are, and the customer (short) knows next to nothing! The shorts only alternative is to ask another broker who has no incentive to tell them squat and every incentive to use the information to trade against them. The bottom line is that big shorts pay big fees. It's like they are playing poker but they are the only ones who have to show their cards at all times.
So the shorts would be paying 17.5% just to cover the 14% dividend? I would be surprised if they are paying less than 25% for the shorting, plus significant fees, and I would be surprised if it was not a highly levered bet with premium margin interest.
I would sure like to believe that there are literally no more shares to loan and short, but based on the last report and volume traded I would say we are only around 25% of float short, certainly not past 30%. I think the shorts were in pretty deep going into earnings and shot their load the day of the report. The selling stabs have been lacking volume and there is no follow through -nobody is buying their BS! Rather than a lack of shares to borrow I think the big short is getting close to a margin call or at the very least realizing that it will be a long expensive position to maintain. My suspicion is that money for this short comes DIRECTLY from uber in an effort to screw taxi companies by attacking their finances. uber needs money elsewhere and can not slush money to dirty tricks like it used to.
Recipe for a serial killer
-take one desperate human with nothing more than a drivers licence. Sign them to a deal with the devil -high interest loan on a car that depreciates more in the second they drive off the lot than they can make in 3 months. Then send them out on to the streets like hoars to make money for a greedy powerful pimp that filled them up with lies that they would be highly paid and only work when they want. Add that they are breaking laws and competing unfairly with more qualified drivers that DO obey the laws/regulations. Then add reality that they have to work 60 hours a week and never miss a rush hour traffic jam to make more than minimum wage. Then to push them over the edge, relentlessly cut their fares while uber raises it's cut! As the drivers drown in debt and liability they read about the tens of billions the head of uber is now worth.
uber is organized crime! Stop uber now!
It's on yahoo, search 'uber-scandals-timeline-michigan-shooting'
I have been commenting, laying out uber culpability. It goes like this -uber claims safety of taxis or better but it spends next to nothing vetting drivers and instead spends BILLIONS on lobbyists and lawyers to AVOID the safety regulations of taxis and to DENY the employment and legal rights of drivers. The behavior of uber, through it's spending and actions demonstrates clearly that they are lying about safety, they know the service is not safe so they spend immensely to distance themselves from regulation and liability. This is not the slam dunk easy case, but it is compelling and likely to get some good lawyers a chance to do some evidence investigation -records of how much and where uber is spending to avoid laws and regulations. I think the surviving families should have no problem getting judgments in in the hundreds of millions but I suspect they will settle for tens of millions.
Of course the comment section is loaded with uber PR pros -absolutely pathetic -still claiming uber is safe and this could have happened with a taxi driver -but a taxi driver has never committed such a crime on duty -in hundreds of years. Taxi drivers are vetted by local companies and pass significant checks by the government and their company -uber NONE! If the same scenario were to happen in a cab, the reckless driving report at 4:30 would have caused the driver to be FIRED BY 5:00 and reported to the police! No killing spree for 8 hours!
The bottom line for TAXI is that the billions of dollars uber takes from investors to spend buying off regulation is coming to an end. TAXI continues to make plenty of money which they continue to distribute to shareholders. More than 20% of the share float is sold short based on the ability to scare people into selling with stories of uber world domination. It will take more than 30 days to cover even IF all the buying was to cover! Shares are half price and yeild 14% -
to date they don't/haven't. More data and short positions are holding high while volumes are tapering off.
CMS, you need to read mort's post about short interest -it is far more expensive than you think for a company that pays a 14% dividend and is so thinly traded. Because it is such a big income stock it tends to be held in 'cash' accounts that can not be loaned to shorts. Scarce shares mean that brokers can charge big bucks in fees and interest to short TAXI shares.
Being thinly traded among slow income oriented investors made TAXI easy to manipulate down, but it is a brutal share to HOLD down and the WORST POSSIBLE stock to exit a short position. We were at 40 days to cover at last report, and that was BEFORE the earnings report when the shorts sold big to defend their position. Prices rising and volume dropping!
This is THE thing to watch for loan quality.
This is particularly interesting in light of the price cut uber initiated in Jan. The claim at the time was that the price cut would increase revenue (for uber obviously not the drivers) during a seasonal low. I suspect that it is BS like EVERYTHING uber says, and that uber will continue to screw drivers, cutting pay relentlessly! Drivers are beginning to get employment rights and unions are thrilled to campaign against uber -it's the greatest target for them since child labor! The next step is regulation of 'ride shares'.
At any rate it begs the question -why does uber need to cut prices at the same time taxis are increasing revenue? My answer is that it has nothing to do with rides and everything to do with projecting growth to support the uber ponzi scheme. uber has never made a profit but always issues more equity claiming growth. uber is still unprofitable but growth stopped last year -a fact they need to hide.
GG, financial analysis is the strong preference all around -so when I return to this blog to find all mine flushed down by many pages of your claims/ rants I feel the need to vent in the most constructive way I can -HUMOR! I have no idea what the truth of your condition is, but I am positive this is the wrong way (place) to present it.
A few quarters ago they were putting out stories that corrected earnings were the number WITHOUT the investment income (0.17 vs the real 0.31) -that investment income did not count when in fact it is just the accounting term for the bank subsidiary on the BDC balance sheet. The bank does business the same way but has access to far cheaper funds.
So the truth is that the bank subsidiary is is growing very profitably at an increasing rate and retained more of its earnings this Q. The BS GG spin (this Q) is that less money transferring out is a sell sign. If you have been paying attention to the lies for a year now you can see that GG and HICKman presume everyone forgot their lies that this investment income counted as zero -SO IT IS UP AN INFINITE PERCENTAGE!
check out NY post story '2016/02/22/uber-got-complaints-about-michigan-shooter/'
Regulators can not let uber slide after this one...
uber was pushing a deal with one of these major rental companies trying to get drivers to rent cars to drive for uber. It seemed to be in response to the demise of all their auto financing partners -due to losses and regulatory violations. I think it was just BS/PR meant more for uber investors than to lure actual drivers. The economics stink.
GG they have taken your organs out and stored them in jars -did they they stick the wire in your eye to scramble your brains and suck them out your nose yet? It sure sounds like you are being mummified!
You have been terrifying the TAXI villagers far too long. The short bet died long ago, now all they can do is make a scary desiccated corps of you.
I would suggest that a significant amount of volume was short covering -of the involuntary kind. I don't think we ended the day with fewer shares short but I think we ended the day with a bunch of small shorts getting burned out and a bigger short position in fewer hands. They play the same game every Q and it works less and less. They build up their short and try to cover on their "news" attack article. The shorts fabricate a price decline to go with their story which is the perfect buy for the dividend. It looks to be setting up a great dividend harvesting op.
uber connects drivers to 'partners' that sign drivers to hideous abusive loan contracts. uber then deducts loan payments from any income the driver earns before the driver is paid. Normal lenders have to wait until loans are 90days past due and get a court order to take directly from pay.
These partner loan sharks have crashed and burned in piles of bad loans and state lawsuits over violations. The last I heard uber could not get any lenders to sign their 'partner' deals so they were planning to do lending themselves. Their investors were told the opposite, that uber would be super profitable because it DID NOT pay or loan for anything. I have not seen any lending by uber. The last I heard they claimed to have a deal with car rental companies -but the car rental companies see uber as their worst enemy and the terms of the rental would take the first 8 hours of pay from every driver and the liability is still on the DRIVER.
uber is still fishing for chumps to sign away their rights as a US citizen and work as uber slaves for less than minimum wage.
Nice catch! That is a very important read. I am following more of the recommended stories from that one and WOW! The 'uber rules the world..' BS that shorts are pushing is looking quite insane! uber army of lawyers will be lucky if they can keep paying out all of the company to survivor families. The story about the airport makes it clear -politicians are not taking uber's sh1t anymore!