I am a newbie to the stock. Is the potential with the RG-101 results in mid-February similar to the Phase 1 results in late 2014? Or is the bio bear market going to put a lid on price appreciation? Thanks.
No sure what happened there. I know I heard management state at least three different times last year that IBS-C results would be out by the end of Dec.15 or in very early 2016. Most recently, however, they have guided for IBS-C 1 to be released in 1st half 16 and IBS-C 2 in 2nd half. They are still promising a NDA application for IBS-C by the end of this year.
Adam Feuerstein mentioned in his column this morning that Threshold did not meet the Feuerstein-Ratain Rule which concludes that oncology companies with market caps below $300 million do not ever succeed with Phase 3 trials. The data is measured 4 months prior to announcement of results. If you go back and look at trading in August (4 months prior to this month), Threshold actually closed at or above $4.20 on 13 of 21 trading days. $4.20 per share is equivalent to a $300 million market cap for Threshold. This one is really on the cusp.
It's hard to read a lot from a stock's future based on the trading before Phase 3 results. In early March 2009, Dendreon went briefly below $3. Six weeks later when successful Phase 3 results came out, the stock traded above $20. It was not a micro-cap either. At the time, it had around 100 million shares outstanding. The market cap went from $300 million to $2 billion in six weeks.