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Aruba Networks, Inc. (ARUN) Message Board

nclag 60 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 12:11 PM Member since: Oct 3, 2005
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  • Reply to

    6 whole cents

    by inbounds7 Dec 19, 2014 12:04 AM
    nclag nclag Dec 24, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    It seems to me that these are two unrelated issues. Dom would not transfer 1M shares to an RLT or CRUT based on a VP resigning. Also, I have not seen any notice of a VP resigning. Maybe it is forthcoming, but all names are still listed on the website.
    The fact that someone sold substantial Jan. 18 calls could definitely be a part of yesterdays sell-off. Bouncing back a bit today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    6 whole cents

    by inbounds7 Dec 19, 2014 12:04 AM
    nclag nclag Dec 23, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    I am not as 'down' on them as you are, buyers, but your point is well taken. Regardless of the type of Charitable Trust it is, he will receive a nice tax deduction. And he avoids Capital Gains taxes on the sale. But he gives up control of the principal. His distributions from the trust are restricted. These types of moves are made with advise of solid legal, tax, and financial counsel. And we don't know his personal situation, so it is hard for us to judge his motives precisely.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    6 whole cents

    by inbounds7 Dec 19, 2014 12:04 AM
    nclag nclag Dec 23, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    Negative Beta continues. Bought 250 at $18.68 (10:41:33). Now at 15k even again. Drop on no news. Dom's Form 4 being misread. Most shares were transferred to his Revocable Living Trust and his Charitable Foundation, not sold! But whenever over 1M shares are moved by a CEO, questions arise.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    6 whole cents

    by inbounds7 Dec 19, 2014 12:04 AM
    nclag nclag Dec 19, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    And then up nicely so far today. It almost has a negative Beta the past few weeks. Go figure.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • nclag nclag Dec 14, 2014 7:20 AM Flag

    Thanks. I realize that. The board is for entertainment and education and has absolutely no bearing on the stock. If anyone thinks a few retail investors on yahoo can influence stock price, that person is delusional. Given that, it is not worth my time or energy to read posts certain posters. I will stay long and may also add more on any weakness. Good Luck.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Just to play 'devil's advocate'...

    by nclag Dec 4, 2014 10:02 PM
    nclag nclag Dec 5, 2014 10:51 PM Flag

    I wish you both Good Luck. 'Ignore User' on both. Respond what you will. I won't see it. I check here for posts that may help me think through my decisions. I have been watching both of your posts for six months, and have yet to see any posts of substance from either of you.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Just to play 'devil's advocate'...

    by nclag Dec 4, 2014 10:02 PM
    nclag nclag Dec 5, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    Please disclose your position. Long? Short? And you know nothing about my "group". So if you want any credibility, you are going to have to do better than that. Or it will become an 'Ignore User' Flag.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    hard to figure

    by steve44643 Dec 4, 2014 5:35 PM
    nclag nclag Dec 5, 2014 4:27 AM Flag

    Disclosure: Small long position in UBNT/ Large long position in ARUN

    Answer to question about SME in ARUN earnings CC from a few weeks ago:

    Dominic Orr - President and CEO
    "So I would like to first of all take the opportunity to [indiscernible] how Aruba looks at this market. For us there are two market there, one is we call SMB which is up to 100 users account, and there's SME which is 100 to 1,000 users account. Traditionally Aruba has not participated in any of these accounts and now we are taking Aruba Instant with Aruba Central and with the signing up of the right VAD and starting off the Center of Excellence for VAR support in Portland and in Cork, Ireland. We are trying to attack downward the SME market. It is still not our current plan to go further beyond this.

    And the way that the initial feedback from the recruitment of the VARs in this market is they welcome the premium brand that Aruba brings and the enterprise class resilient Wi-Fi quality plus the enterprise class security at affordability and simplicity level that SME has always wanted. So I think we are getting a very good initial positive reception in this marketplace, and as we mentioned in the script they are starting to have impactful bookings for the last quarter."

    There is additional commentary in regards to this matter on Page 2 of the prepared remarks from that CC (can be accessed under Seeking Alpha) that seem to be impactful about UBNT's desire to move up the ladder. I highly recommend any UBNT longs read that segment.

    Conclusion: UBNT's efforts to disrupt the SMB/SME market from a price standpoint will be met with stiff resistance. The powerful growth many UBNT longs expect from this area won't come easy, if at all.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • My brother, my nephews and myself all enjoy NDLS. We all play a lot of golf, fish, hunt, and work hard. Our wives and nieces LOVE NDLS. We have a few Vegetarians in the group that consider NDLS their favorite. And it was named by the local paper as the favorite eating establishment for vegetarians. If you don't get the meat add-ons, then almost all the meals are vegetarian. And this is a huge growing trend. So the brand they are building is a faithful brand.

    And if you don't get the meat add-ons, meals are about $6. So I see your point about more women eating there, but disagree with your assertion about it not being man-friendly and that it is expensive. I do agree with the point that if that is where the women want to go, the men will go along with the 'boss'.

    Just my two cents worth. Disclosure: Long 1000 shares. Will hold for a long time.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • "In July 2014, the Federal Communications Commission issued the E-rate Modernization Order to approve an update to the E-rate program (also known as the Schools and Libraries Program of the Universal Service Fund), which resulted in a $2 billion increase over the next two years to E-rate’s existing budget to support Wi-Fi within schools and libraries. Certain customers may delay purchasing decisions until the new rules are implemented or until these funds become available for the 2015/2016 funding cycle."

    I see this current risk as a long term positive. ARUN is very well positioned in this niche. In the last earnings CC, they implied they are preparing for this, but not factoring it into their projections. (They only guide for the next quarter anyway). But that any business generated from this would be an add-on to their existing plans.

    Other than this, the 10-Q looks solid and the financials look very good. JMHO. Please read for yourself.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Credit Suisse Investor CC...

    by nclag Dec 2, 2014 5:05 PM
    nclag nclag Dec 3, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    Actually, I am hoping it is NOT bought out. My belief (and obviously I have been wrong) is that the stock could, and should, move much higher on its own. Then maybe getting bought out at a higher level would be nice. It is actually a fear of mine that someone makes a hostile bid on them at these much lower levels. But my thinking here could be convoluted.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • being conducted by Michael Galvin, CFO. His prepared presentation was "at the 10,000 ft. level." He discussed stable, secure, simple, and smart air and ARUN's approach. He mentioned the installed base is now in the mid-40,000 customers. He also confirmed that Gross Margin guidance is still in the 71-73% range, which "leads the industry by several points." And he confirmed the Operating Margin guidance in the 21-22% range. Q&A finished relatively quickly as they were out of time. But nothing in the Q&A that materially changes the outlook. He spoke briefly about how the Book to Bill was factored into the conservative guidance in response to a question, but it was not a material disclosure, IMHO.

    ARUN still has industry leading technology, is growing market share, and executing their plan. But this does not seem to move the stock. As it languishes around 20, they become more and more of a target for M&A. That is purely my opinion, with no evidence to support that supposition. Who wouldn't want to have their technology and customer base in the fastest growing area of networking with several years left in these shift to mobile for enterprises? Disclosure: Long 14,750 shares.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • nclag nclag Nov 29, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    Using the $106M to buy shares at $20 vs. $25 takes 1M more shares out of circulation. If (when) we have a broad market pullback and ARUN dips further, they will support the stock. I may also pick up a few more.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Offering Share Price $1.60???

    by drburdi Nov 21, 2014 11:58 PM
    nclag nclag Nov 29, 2014 8:42 AM Flag

    You have the wrong stock.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • with Price Target of $28.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • "Michael Galvin - CFO
    This is Mike. So with regards to the guide, obviously we do feel very good about the year-on-year growth, the 18% to 20%. We believe both our actuals from Q1 and that guidance are definitely taking market share from the market. But for this quarter in particular when we looked out, we really looked at kind of the things we're all hearing right now about a mixed spending and a mixed macro environment, and we really flavored that into our normal process of the way we evaluate our pipeline and conversion ratios, et cetera. And so, it was really, really focused on that. There weren't specific verticals or geographies per se, it was really I guess just kind of a prudence in terms of what we're all hearing about the market out there.

    Dominic Orr - President and CEO
    And for the rest of FY '15, we are going to be heads down focusing on refining and keeping our product leadership, gaining market share and while delivering profitable growth focusing on operating margin and EPS growth, and that guidance is totally consistent with that objective."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Dom Orr in opening remarks...

    "
    We have seen an emerging trend in the market that supports each of our four growth initiatives. We believe the market is putting a premium on best-of-breed solutions that address three critical principles; that they must be mobile first, that they must be security driven, and that they must be open. We are very pleased with the traction we have with our recent strategic partnerships on this front, including Arista, Brocade, Juniper, [indiscernible] and Palo Alto Networks.

    We are seeing this relationship yield results. One good example is a recent win with a Fortune 200 global athletic retailer. This customer selected Aruba together with one of our strategic ecosystem partners for its major metro stores worldwide. This message is clear, [indiscernible] innovation in mobility, security and openness, we will win over the [indiscernible] and hollow promise of the [indiscernible] end to end architecture integration made by our largest competitor."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Payout for Christmas

    by nclag Oct 16, 2014 8:42 PM
    nclag nclag Nov 24, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Waiting on CFIUS review. 45 day review ends around Dec. 11, but could be completed prior to then.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Slight beat on revenues and EPS...

    by nclag Nov 20, 2014 4:21 PM
    nclag nclag Nov 21, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    250 more at $18.8574 (3:15:31). Up to 14,750.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    CrookStreet

    by teknowiz Nov 21, 2014 1:57 PM
    nclag nclag Nov 21, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    And if you were ARUN, would you rather use the $106M remaining in the buyback fund to buy shares below $20 or above $20? I am not saying they guided conservatively for this reason. But they had to realize the guidance would not help the share price, despite the otherwise outstanding quarter.

    Sentiment: Buy

ARUN
18.38-0.070(-0.38%)Dec 26 4:00 PMEST

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