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Aruba Networks, Inc. (ARUN) Message Board

nclag 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 12, 2015 9:43 AM Member since: Oct 3, 2005
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  • nclag nclag Mar 12, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    Ate there last night and had very steady young crowd. Food was good. In last CC, they spoke of adding a spinach based noodle for those not wanting as many carbs or grains, but the location I visited did not offer that option yet.
    Disclosure: Long 1000 shares myself at an Avg. Cost around $18. Also manage some money for friends and family and have another 1000 shares there at an Avg. Cost of around $18. Still have a Buy bias, but not a Strong Buy. Not expecting a good Q1, due to weather.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • nclag nclag Mar 11, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    I agree with you. But prefer to Dollar Cost Average in. It does have a good product and is building substantial brand loyalty. Eventually, this should translate into more sustainable growth. Bought 250 more today at $17.225. As you, this is a long term hold, not a trade. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I know the posters here who will bash, but please listen for yourself. They discuss their headwinds and opportunities in a forthright and realistic manner. Despite all the negativity and poor stock performance, there are some good things happening.
    Cash and Wall are on ignore. So I won't see their jibberish. Tired of negativity without any substantive contribution to the board.
    My sentiment is Buy at these levels. But not Strong Buy.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Some reflections before the board gets overtaken...

    by nclag Feb 25, 2015 8:53 PM
    nclag nclag Feb 28, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    Yes you may, Valley, as may all on this board. It is a mutual admiration society. It has been a good board. It is the only board I follow. There are no other stocks I know as well as ARUN. So I hesitate to weigh in on anything else. Your research is as good as mine.
    Having said that, I bought 2k HIVE on Friday as a potential beneficiary of any ARUN buyout. The market seems to look at others in the space that may be targets when a buyout occurs, and HIVE has the next best technology, especially in the E-rate school funding market. So they may benefit, especially at this low price. Even if not a target, they have a decent balance sheet and are trading cheap enough that I believe the upside potential is greater than the downside risk.
    As a contrarian play, I am accumulating a bit of NDLS after their miss and sell off. The product is good, the company is expanding, the CEO is the former CFO of Chipotle. But don't get aggressive here, restaurant stocks are always risky. And it is a competitive space.
    Other than that, if the buyout happens, my plan is to keep the bulk of the money in cash awaiting a better entry point in the future. And it may stay in cash for one or two or three years.
    But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. This is a long way from being done.
    Good luck to you Valley, and all, whatever happens.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I don't expect any definitive announcement, IF ANY, for another two weeks or longer. ARUN is in no hurry. Next week is their annual conference in Las Vegas, all week. Rest assured that representatives from HP, IBM, EMC, and others will be in attendance. Management will be preoccupied with successful networking. Expect some announcements in regards to technology upgrades. Maybe an intro of 802.11 ac Wave 2.

    It takes a long time to Dot i's and cross t's. Legal Due Diligence is complicated. Nothing is done until it is done. And with the momentum ARUN has, why rush a deal?

    The market may sell off a bit next week IF NO DEAL IS ANNOUNCED, as the impatient assess whether a buyout is forthcoming. That is normal.

    Obviously, none of us have a clue IF, WHEN, TO WHO, or FOR HOW MUCH. So simply hold onto your long position and see what happens. Patience. JMHO.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Gina Rometty of IBM...

    by nclag Feb 27, 2015 4:58 AM
    nclag nclag Feb 27, 2015 8:13 AM Flag

    No. That's what the CEO of IBM says they plan to invest in that area. No indication whatsoever that they have any interest in ARUN. My comments were just speculation.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Gina Rometty of IBM...

    by nclag Feb 27, 2015 4:58 AM
    nclag nclag Feb 27, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    I guess the name is Jinny and the figure was only $4B. Sorry.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • says they plan to spend up to $9B to help build out their networking, enterprise, and security business. ARUN is a partner with IBM on many deals, so the relationship is there. ARUN would not accept an offer without at least giving IBM a chance to bid.
    Also, they spent about 75M of the 100M in the buyout fund last quarter. The other 25M could have been spent in the first ten days of February when the price was in the 16's.
    And Dom did not deny. He simply stated he can not comment on speculation and rumor.
    I believe some type of deal is in the works. But it may take a bit longer to develop. If IBM shows any interest at all, there could be a behind-the-scenes bidding war which will take time. Or maybe ARUN is past that. Only time will tell.
    And with the momentum they have across several verticals and the technological advantage they currently possess, and with their "laser focus" on the E-rate initiative, don't be surprised if they stand alone a bit longer.
    Whatever they decide is OK with me. But if there is a buyout, my hope would be for at least $30. And after yesterday, and if IBM is in the mix, look for $32-35, or higher.
    Obviously this is just guessing at this point.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • "It is company policy not to comment on any potential M&A, so we will not be answering any questions surrounding the rumors. We neither confirm or deny. Blah, Blah, Blah." Just a guess.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • just went up! Or don't sell! Changing back from Hold to Buy!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    need translation

    by goldsealmerchandise Feb 25, 2015 10:06 PM
    nclag nclag Feb 25, 2015 10:40 PM Flag

    ARUN guided 208-211M, but consensus is about 210.5M, so consensus would be at the higher end of company guidance. This is slightly below the percentage sequential growth seen this quarter in previous years, so in their view, the transition to 11ac is slowing down as initial adopters have implemented and others are holding onto their 11n architecture until they have to upgrade. Because of this, they are 10% below other analysts for FY2015EPS, which ends in July. But because the stock dropped from 22 to now 18 (before today's Bloomburg article), they wouldn't short because they feel these negative projections have already been factored into the current price.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Some reflections before the board gets overtaken...

    by nclag Feb 25, 2015 8:53 PM
    nclag nclag Feb 25, 2015 10:31 PM Flag

    No clue. But if it happens, it will be north of 25, probably closer to 28. And that depends on if it is a cash only or cash and stock swap transaction.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • by newcomers wanting to weigh in on any potential buyout:

    1. Dom transferring 1M shares to his CST should have been a clue. He stopped selling 200k per month after that transfer. So he received the tax deduction, does not have to pay Capital Gains if the shares sell, and can reposition those assets into income property to last his lifetime. Nice planning by his advisors.
    2. Neither Keerti (COO) or Mike G. (CFO) have sold any substantial amount of shares in months.
    3. Hedge Fund (Citadel Partners) and Ken Griffin take larger stake in past three weeks.
    4. They know guiding conservatively whacks the share price and they can use the $100M left in the buyout fund to reduce float.
    5. Cleaning house is usually done before buyouts. The change in the sales staff could have been orchestrated knowing change of ownership was a possibility.
    6. HP started partnering with ARUN last summer. It's a logical fit for an HP (or an IBM) to take on CSCO.
    7. HP announced that potential acquisitions in the networking and security space were a priority. ARUN fits the bill on both counts.
    8. ARUN was under increasing pressure from Institutional owners to drive shareholder value. Dom's ability to drive shareholder value could have created problems with the next annual shareholder meeting which was approaching rapidly. Dom is in his early 60's.
    There are other thoughts, but that's it for now.
    Changing my bias to HOLD.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • nclag by nclag Feb 25, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    ARUN runs tight ship. They would not disclose this type of rumor. Had limit order to sell 250 at $18.82, so that executed, but still have 17,500 shares. No buyout below $28-30, please. In fact, no buyout at all.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Pop and instantaneous drop?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Prognostications?

    by buyersbroker_246 Feb 25, 2015 1:02 PM
    nclag nclag Feb 25, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    Your guess is as good as anybody's, but since you asked, my guess is the report will be fine. But it was fine last time, other than not guiding as high as the street wanted, and the stock took a beating.
    The VP was not an officer, so no public disclosure required. It is my guess that bringing Dilullo in from the outside as an officer caused the VP departure. He probably felt passed over. And from listening to the CC's, Dilullo sounds competent, but a bit of a self promoter. Previous Officer of WW sales Kirby, a more easy going personality leaves. Dilullo, louder and more hard driving comes in and shakes things up, people get passed over, they don't like the new boss, and they depart. It happens in sales forces all the time. They had brought in a large sales staff the prior year, so making changes is one way to trim the fat through attrition. The reps hitting their quotas stay and are rewarded. The reps on the borderline either step it up or leave and complain.
    ARUN's guidance of 208-211M did not take any E-rate K-12 school sales into account, so they should not use that as a reason to miss. The Wanda Group sale in China was huge. The buildup of the pipeline is approaching 50k customers. Deferred revenue from the likes of Starbucks and on-going implementations should provide enough linearity that 210M is doable. 210M is my hope. With a miss somewhat figured in, hitting 210M should keep them around $18-19. If they do $211.7, that is a continuation of the 20% Y/Y growth and we should see $20 again. Obviously, they need to guide to above $215M at a minimum or at least 5M above whatever they do to show sequential growth.
    Not concerned about buyback. They had $101M to start quarter and have been using about $50M per quarter. If that continues, then look for an increase in the Spring. Cash flow has been very good, so they will increase at some point if stock stays in the teens.
    Any miss or negativity will be pounced on. $19

    Sentiment: Buy

ARUN
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