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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

neelsen01 89 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 21, 2014 8:05 AM Member since: Feb 13, 2013
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  • neelsen01 by neelsen01 Nov 21, 2014 8:05 AM Flag

    China's rate cut should spur consumer demand. LAS should benefit, at least in the short term.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • vp insider selling signaling stock over extended. may sell down to 14's before stock will be stable for buying again

    Sentiment: Hold

  • neelsen01 by neelsen01 May 23, 2013 4:04 PM Flag

    clf showing suprising strength compared to the last sell down on china data. it looks like the shinese will get there lower iron ore prices and thent send it up again in a frenzy. us demand strong for commodities in next year for autos and constructtion. clf has most of sales in us. even if china comes off 10% in sales, that will translate to an overall drop of 3-4% of sales for clf. the us should make up for much of that loss. That means earnings have a real chance to beat expectations even as china demand for iron ore softens over coming months.at forward pe of 10 clf should be able to climb to at least 30 in near term as expectations will move to $3 for 2013.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    the next stop is $18.75

    by stmoon200 May 15, 2013 3:57 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 15, 2013 5:08 PM Flag

    you might be right. i thought it would be tested a week ago. momentum is challenged too easily with this stock. the downward 2 year trend is frightenly intact. clf will have to beat another 2 quarters to get to my buy in price (29.45). funny thing is, it still has the possibility of surging to $70 by year end due to the high beta and iron ore demand. but the street will not buy in until the money is there ($7 a share annual).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    clf is a sitting duck for a takeover

    by lucetteo1 May 15, 2013 4:04 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 15, 2013 5:02 PM Flag

    you might be right at this point. even with earnings increasing and iron ore staying in demand, the street is not buying this stock.however, a takeover will be resisted by management I'm arfraid. they would surely be replaced if taken over.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • new article by ABC news reveals inside demand from china is not abating- in fact it is set to increase over next two years

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • neelsen01 by neelsen01 May 15, 2013 8:22 AM Flag

    yearly target met. strong sell at this point. market looks parabolic.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • neelsen01 by neelsen01 May 15, 2013 8:21 AM Flag

    next earnings could top one dollar by way of US sales expanding with economy.that should put clf on trajectory of $40 short term (less than 3 months).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I Am So Lonely

    by dubyuhandfansareevil May 8, 2013 5:39 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 8, 2013 6:28 PM Flag

    you'll get another chance, I'm afraid (I bought at 29.45). but the "easy" short money may be ending as large players may be targeting different sectors that may be overvalued (staples, utilities, telecoms?). I believe this stock could reach $70 by year end, but I'm sure there will be dramatic turns downward in price along the way.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • year long goal still at 165, buit short term (2-3 months) we could test 1500. sell now buy at low 1500 range in Aug- Sept

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Still trying to figure out why a company would want to dump its' commodity on the market that could pressure prices at least in the short term. Are they trying to drive high cost producers out of the market? or do they believe (as I do) that the demand will be there and then some? I''ll be biased and suggest the later as the former hypothesis would be a very risky strategy.they know very well that the world is running out of viable areas to mine iron ore. some suggest the world will run out of cost efficient iron ore deposits in 60 years or less. but the urbanization of the developing and emerging countries will not abate for hundreds of years! aside form obvious housing and office construction, you have cars, trucks, farm equipment, tools, aircraft, rails above and underground, and various other uses that will be in demand. recycling takes energy as well so mining will be a continued necessity as long as it is cost effective.either way, prices will be sustained long term. in the short term clf has taken steps to survive independently. I don't believe they would accept a buyout offer less than $70 because of the potential supply/demand senarios that will emerge in the coming years. And $70 is not an outrageous target for this year. If clf could hit even $3.50 in earnings for 2013 (not out of the question) and the material space expand it's multiple to 20 (higher end) $70 would be a fair price.With the high beta this stock inherently possesses, this is a very possible outcome.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • neelsen01 by neelsen01 May 6, 2013 10:50 AM Flag

    based on recent improvements, book value increased to $37. target for end of year at $70

    Sentiment: Buy

  • price target still at 70 by year end, however, but right now street still shorting clf

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    OK WHICH ONE OF YOU BLOGGING MORONS

    by tom0919 Apr 30, 2013 3:56 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Apr 30, 2013 4:04 PM Flag

    clf going to $70 by year end.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • neelsen01 by neelsen01 Apr 29, 2013 8:30 AM Flag

    in latest issue of The Economist, china predicted to spend upwards of a trillion dollars over next decade on rails above and underground. demand for iron ore will be consistant. over that time period. this is why the three big miners are planning to increase supply over next three years. don't be fooled by sentiment of iron ore currently. there are interests that are trying to benefit by driving down iron ore prices in short term (china, chanos, weiss, einhorn, ect...).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • ms had to up it's estimates for iron ore. once again, the analyst are being too pesimistic in this sector. iron ore mines are very hard to start and complete.but the world (not just china), meanwihile still demands much more infrastructure, vehicles, farm equipment to further urbanization. the street will be looking at clf specific improvement in operations. i can't imagine that management will have the audacity to show underperformance after being under such scrutiny this past 3 months.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • steve weiss(cnbc) saying china on verge of crash from credit bubble yet recommending us stocks. based on that premise, the s&p 500 stands a good chance to move under 1000 if china crashes hard since program trades will short all markets worldwilde. if he truly is behind this investment advice, he would be advising buying us treasuries or going into cash, not chasing the market down wiess, chanos, and others overstating and exaggerating china fears to further thier short positions while buying lower beta companies on the fear ripples.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • iron ore has held up remarkably well in the face of whole investment houses shorting it. clf obviously has not managed as well.a reversion to the mean will occur at some point this year. predicting iron ore will make new highs (over $160) and hold up on the low mark better than most of analyst are forecasting (over $125). that puts clf in a position to revert to $40 quickly as earnings will reflect the market iron ore prices.a push late this year to $70 is still not out of the question.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • neelsen01 by neelsen01 Apr 16, 2013 2:07 PM Flag

    predicting over $1 EPS due to sustained high iron ore prices over last 3 months.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • should see suppor around that price

    Sentiment: Buy

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