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neelsen01 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 31, 2015 2:33 AM Member since: Feb 13, 2013
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  • agen showing strength at this level ($5). should be able to climb back to $6.50 by mid March.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • future RECURRING ANNUAL revenue will transform this company from a speculative cancer vaccine developer into an established money generating company. with the malaria and shingles vaccine this is all but a certainty. the real question is how the market will value agen once the revenue starts coming in? based on $100 in recurring revenue in 4 years, I think a conservative price would be around $25. a fivefold return in just 4 years is worth the investment. this isn't speculative revenue. this is revenue that will be coming in perhaps increasing significantly each year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • neelsen01 neelsen01 Jan 29, 2015 9:47 PM Flag

    AF is throwing cold water on the company for their past performance. he downplayed the royalties as being minimal. but it is a recurring revenue that will only increase over time. prophage has stigmatized the company and analysts like AF can only focus on it's past failures. this company has many things that could boost it's value over time. will it be a celgene or gilead? I don't think anyone has those expectations. but could it generate revenue over $100m a year in 4-5 years? I think so. is shingles or malaria diseases that will magically go away with no vaccine prevention? of course not. so agen does have a bright future despite it's struggles in the past.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • neelsen01 neelsen01 Jan 29, 2015 9:34 PM Flag

    forget about technicals. I invested because of the fundamentals. a 97% efficacy in preventing shingles virtually guarantees royalties indefinitely once the vaccine is approved. and with only minor side effects approval shouldn't be an issue as well as competition. who is going to invest the time and money to achieve 100% efficacy with unknown side effects? hard to see any competition with gsk's shingles vaccine in the future. future royalties has turned agen from a speculative gamble into a legitimate investment. I think agen can go to $25 in four years just on vaccine royalties alone. I'm very skeptical on the cancer development, but any breakthrough in this area will of course skyrocket the stock. why would the stock go below $4 when incite has bought in at 4.51 and future royalties loom? at this point I'd be surprised if it dropped below $5.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I think it's important to examine the reasons for investing in Agenus. I own 16450 shares at just under $6 and if Agenus spiked to $12 tomorrow I wouldn't sell. The vaccines that have benefited from their technology (anti-malarial and shingles) will provide a base income to justify a $12 stock price over the next two years. But I plan on holding the stock for at least six years to allow enough time for human trials to progress in their cancer vaccine pursuits. If even one type of cancer is controlled or destroyed during late trials with these new vaccines, we could be looking at a $500 dollar stock.. That's not a pie in the sky assessment. This company has the potential to skyrocket with even potential success in cancer vaccine development. If you're just trying to trade the stock for a quick gain be prepared to wait until news from the malaria vaccine being approved and/or GSK's shingles vaccine being filed for approval for a major jump in the stock. I plan on buying through the downturn up to my initial price. You will have to have a certain amount of patience with this company. We know the money is coming in with the two vaccines, so there's no reason to sell at these prices or even lower. This company will be worth at least $12 as these vaccines come to market over the next two years so why sell during the downturn?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • agen could rally to 7 by May given momentum of news/potential earnings.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Does AGEN really have substance ?

    by annasaaru Jan 14, 2015 2:48 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Jan 14, 2015 7:14 PM Flag

    current vaccine last for at least three years. cdc doesn't currently recommend a booster. I would have to look at gsk studies to see how long their vaccine lasts. I suspect doctors would recommend a booster at ten years to make sure the virus remains dormant as long as the side effects remain minimal. it sure beats getting shingles! but since gsk's vaccine is given in two separate doses, their may be a reluctance to get a booster if recommended.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Does AGEN really have substance ?

    by annasaaru Jan 14, 2015 2:48 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Jan 14, 2015 6:57 PM Flag

    yes this stock has substance. I work in the medical field. a shingles vaccine that has 97.2% efficacy with minor side effects covering 16000 people will become the standard in preventing shingles. everyone that had chicken pox will be advised to get the vaccine after age 50. that will be over a billion in sales a year with agenus receiving perhaps 20-30million a year in royalties minimum year after year. and that is only one vaccine. they are working in other areas that may tempt a larger biotech company to acquire it.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Be ready to tolerate a move down to 4.50. Don't sell however because the approval of GSK's shingles vaccine in 2015-2016 could push the stock over 10 very quickly.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • neelsen01 by neelsen01 Nov 21, 2014 8:05 AM Flag

    China's rate cut should spur consumer demand. LAS should benefit, at least in the short term.

    Sentiment: Hold

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