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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

neelsen01 269 posts  |  Last Activity: May 2, 2015 5:15 PM Member since: Feb 13, 2013
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  • "With the Incyte stock purchase, Agenus will have about 70 million shares outstanding so that the current market capitalization is about $360 million. I think that it is not a stretch to contemplate that the Agenus/Incyte collaboration could have commercial potential similar to that of Kite Pharma (KITE) and Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) in the CAR-T drug development space. These companies have respective market capitalizations of $3.2 billion and $4.2 billion. This suggests that as investors look more closely at this collaboration, they might attribute significantly greater potential to it. With Agenus accounting for around half of the value, this could lead to a significant further increase in market capitalization for Agenus over time. Adding to the potential for stock price appreciation is scarcity value. Agenus offers the only pure play in checkpoint modulation antibody development. "

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • March 11, 2015 "The smaller cap names look like better values. One I still like as a takeout candidate is Agenus Inc. (NASDAQ: AGEN) which is up some 60% since being included in the Small Cap Gems portfolio several months ago but whose shares do not reflect recent positive catalysts or the company’s potential value as acquisition candidate.

    The company has two vaccines, for malaria and shingles, developed in conjunction with drug giant GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) that should hit the market during the next year and a more than a dozen others in development.

    More importantly the company recently entered into a global licensing deal with Incyte (NASDAQ: INCY) around its checkpoint inhibitor platform for four targeted inhibitor combinations. Checkpoint inhibitors are combined with drugs from these partners to develop a vaccine that stimulates the immune system to attack the cancer, plus the checkpoint inhibitor to prevent the cancer from protecting itself against the vaccine.

    The deal with Incyte provides significant potential financial benefits. For each royalty-bearing product, Agenus will be eligible to receive up to $155 million in milestones and tiered royalties ranging from mid-single to low double-digits. Agenus also signed a deal with Merck (NYSE: MRK) in the second quarter of 2014 that could provide the company with $100 million in milestone payments if trials there are successful.

    Even with the stock’s recent run-up Agenus has a market capitalization of a little over $300 million of which over $40 million is represented by net cash on the balance sheet. Given its potential milestones and commensurate royalties and partnerships with three major pharma players it is hard to see how this stock either doesn’t go higher by itself or by being acquired at a substantial premium over the next 12 months."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Clearing up a case of shingles treatment

    By Dr. Keith Roach , Herald-Tribune

    Tuesday, March 3, 2015

    "During the time of viral replication, treatment with antiviral medications such as acyclovir, famciclovir and valacyclovir can be effective in reducing the length of pain of the outbreak and its complication, post-herpetic neuralgia. Because these drugs work in suppressing viral growth, they are helpful only during replication, the first few days of shingles (as soon as possible, and definitely within 72 hours of onset of rash). They help protect the nerve cells from damage. Some doctors use anti-inflammatories like prednisone, but recent studies suggest little or no benefit in people taking acyclovir.

    What's different about shingles is the potential for post-herpetic neuralgia -- the pain caused by damage to the nerves, which persists months and even years after shingles. There are treatments for post-herpetic neuralgia, such as gabapentin and amitriptyline, but these act on the damaged nerve and its impulses, not on the virus. The virus is long gone, having already done its damage. Neither antiviral medicine nor a vaccine can help at that point. That's why prevention is best (shingles vaccine) and early treatment is critical (even in people who had the vaccine, since the shingles vaccine isn't perfect)."BUT OURS IS NEARLY PERFECT- 97% EFFICACY.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • perhaps. clinical trials will begin in partnership with incyte that will rival a pipeline of the likes of juno now. price could top $60 if that happens.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I wonder how the fool Adumb Fartstain feels now

    by wilsonwagwa Feb 24, 2015 8:32 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Feb 24, 2015 8:46 AM Flag

    he will most likely attribute any major moves or success stories to the Incyte deal to avoid complementing Dr. Armen, as he seems to have a grudge against him and Agenus in general.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Sent an email to Brad Miles about possible transcripts of conferences for tomorrow in NYC and for the one in Wash DC being held in April. Awaiting response...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Which targets in the Agenus partnership are most advanced in terms of clinical development?

    "The candidates so far selected for development are two antibodies that bind and activate GITR, a molecule that stimulates T cell responses, and one that inhibits CTLA-4. Candidates against OX40, LAG-3, PD-1, and TIM-3 are currently in the process of being screened and selected.OX40 stimulates anticancer immune responses, so we’re working with Agenus to develop agonistic antibodies against that molecule and inhibitory antibodies against LAG-3, PD-1 and TIM-3, which inhibit anticancer responses.

    There is much that depends on Agenus, but we would hope they will be in a position to file an investigational new drug (IND) application on the two main candidates toward the end of 2015. Following IND approval, Ludwig would begin clinical trials.Would that be a new antibody aimed at CTLA-4?

    Yes. It would be a totally novel antibody."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) has fined U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray $250,000. An investment banker employed by the firm has to pay $50,000.

    The fines were part of an NASD settlement stemming from accusations that Minneapolis-based Piper Jaffray dropped coverage of a biotech firm in retaliation after the firm decided to work with a Piper Jaffray competitor to underwrite a stock offering. Piper Jaffray admitted no wrongdoing as part of the settlement.

    The problem arose when New York-based Antigenics Inc. -- which develops drugs for cancer, Alzheimer's disease and HIV infection -- decided in December last year to work with UBS Warburg rather than Piper on a $60 million stock offering. Antigenics CEO Garo Armen alleged that Piper investment banker Scott Beardsley threatened that his firm's analysts would drop coverage of Antigenics in retaliation. When Antigenics did indeed go with Warburg, the coverage was dropped. The incident took place two years after Piper had led Antigenics' $63 million IPO.

    Piper head of equity investment Thomas Schnettler said in a press release that the firm decided on a quick settlement "in the best interest of our clients and our business." Piper neither admitted nor denied the NASD's findings. Schnettler said in his statement that the company strongly supports efforts by the NASD to keep the public trust in the capital markets

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I believe Garo

    by erietekk Apr 23, 2015 12:09 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Apr 23, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    I agree. He's taking it higher (for you, the wrong direction) therefore your puts will expire worthless. Get on board the long train. You'll be glad you did!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As of late, it has definitely been a great time to be an investor Agenus Inc (AGEN). The stock has moved higher by 11.2% in the past month, while it is also above its 20 Day SMA too. This combination of strong price performance and favorable technical, could suggest that the stock may be on the right path.

    We certainly think that this might be the case, particularly if you consider AGEN’s recent earnings estimate revision activity. From this look, the company’s future is quite favorable; as AGEN has earned itself a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), meaning that its recent run may continue for a bit longer, and that this isn’t the top for the in-focus company.

    ..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • neelsen01 neelsen01 Apr 28, 2015 6:22 PM Flag

    an adjuvant that helped nearly cure shingles is wildly valuable. 4ab could prove to be just as valuable. market pays for potential for companies like this. It's always easier to buy when the money is rolling in, but by then you may be paying $50 instead of $7.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • In May of 2013, the NCI trial was initiated and is now enrolling 222 patients. This is the largest vaccine trial ever funded by the NCI in brain tumors and the largest cancer vaccine study ever conducted in combination with Avastin®.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The month of May could spark a vicious bout of panic attacks for traders shorting agen! For your own mental heath, please come back in June when the stock is $20!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    read the 10k neelson01

    by parsa_da_man Feb 20, 2015 11:06 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Feb 20, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    In the 10k, GSK could have made them say "flat" or "tiered" to preface the "low single digits" but was left instead to "generally receive" and "with some exceptions" at the end of the statement. This allows room to account for a variation in royalty rate that is most likely tied to sales. Of course know one this mb or on wall street knows for sure how much the rate will actually be, so it's just an estimate based on other indications such as projections from agenus to have max potential of "over 100m in royalty payments at peak sales" and wall street analyst such as Jason Kolbert "modeling 7% royalty". That's all we have to go on. The 10k doesn't fully reveal the actual rate as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Biotech technical bounce today...

    by neelsen01 Mar 27, 2015 4:56 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Mar 28, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    The market has The market is attacking biotechs to burst a perceived bubble in stock prices. AGEN is certainly not in a bubble, but will struggle nonetheless until corporate news overcomes current sentiment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    well how odd, we're witnessing a 'pullback'

    by lowsingledigits Mar 13, 2015 12:12 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Mar 13, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    general trend still intact. just caught up in market selloff like a few days before. most important is where it closes relative to market. I think to close over 5.40 is key.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    AGEN will be under $2 soon

    by erietekk Apr 23, 2015 12:11 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Apr 23, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    I'm afraid it will your brokerage account that will be under $2 if you're shorting agenus. Could make a run to $20 by year end.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stock is way ahead of itself

    by bodhisattva568 Apr 23, 2015 2:34 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Apr 23, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    actually, it's way behind. should be trading over $16 (fair value). end of year target now $20.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Good Morning

    by daniellaidman Apr 29, 2015 10:32 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Apr 29, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    Excellent post. Expectations for prophage so low, it could be the sleeper that steals the show this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "The immunotherapies (checkpoint agents, vaccine and cell therapy) market is predicted to become increasingly huge with $35B over the next decade and anticipate to become the backbone treatment of more than 60% of cancers and infectious disease. Though difficult to develop, Agenus ingeniously tapped into the body own immune system to deliver potential therapeutic benefits."

    important to remember this stock has the ability to pay back 100 times your investment from today's price with just one successful cancer vaccine.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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