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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

neelsen01 112 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2015 1:09 PM Member since: Feb 13, 2013
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  • Looks like agen it just going to have to prove itself. Market not convinced agen will benefit that much from shingles vaccine. Company does consistently state low single digit royalty. But if we're getting the same rate for shingles as malaria (1.5%), the qs-21 agreement with gsk will go down as one of the worst royalty rate agreements in history. I would at that point question the savvy of Dr. Armen. Looks like we better have good R&D day/ASCO presentations to regain market confidence.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bottom line, people are still skeptical...

    by neelsen01 May 4, 2015 4:47 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 4, 2015 7:51 PM Flag

    Makes sense, I guess most of news will be out on R&D day.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bottom line, people are still skeptical...

    by neelsen01 May 4, 2015 4:47 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 4, 2015 7:56 PM Flag

    AF reported in an article on Oct 18, 2011 about agen that the rate range was 1.5-6%, but generally was in low single digits. Since the article was not asked to be retracted by agen, the range must be accurate. I sent an inquiry to AF to corroborate the range. Have not heard back from him. Will call him out again tomorrow if I don't hear back by high noon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    stay tuned

    by jbweb18 May 5, 2015 8:09 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 5, 2015 8:57 AM Flag

    yes, unfortunately the market has turned cynical towards agen again. Management will have to drop some promising results to stave off a push down to $5.80. However, if the news is good and we get a ph3 trial, we'll get our mojo back and eventually push through $8. As far as shingles go, if management agreed to get a rate similar to malaria, I will absolutely crucify them on twitter for making such a monumental error. Probably will take until late 2016 to find out true rate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I spoke with GARO last year and he told me that

    by pg135788 May 6, 2015 9:30 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 6, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    Elan

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Volume....

    by bmcgoo_03 May 5, 2015 8:20 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 6, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    be lucky to get $5.80. $5.50 should be bedrock, as I don't think we see this price for rest of year,.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    shareholders

    by jbweb18 May 5, 2015 10:08 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 6, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    Shingles WILL be a blockbuster (97.2% eff w minor side effects), partnerships is an ongoing goal, & "stay tuned" is appropriate as R&D day coming, approval of malaria vac, & filing of shingles in our immediate future. And then there is the possibility of getting prophage into a ph 3 trial.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • What a ?!%@ goal!!!!!

  • posted JMP link on twitter. $10 PT, GSK to file in 2016

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • What time is the embargo lifted?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • neelsen01 neelsen01 May 7, 2015 6:30 PM Flag

    Thanks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Price should be over $400/vaccine given its efficacy(97.2%) and market demand. No excuse for management not to be able to sell over 10M units/yr generating a min of $4B/yr in sales.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Price should be over $400/vaccine given its efficacy(97.2%) and market demand. No excuse for management not to be able to sell over 10M units/yr generating a min of $4B/yr in sales.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Orin Bloch, MD, recently joined Northwestern and is the Khatib Professor of Neurological Surgery at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. His primary research interest is in the development of immunotherapy for the treatment of malignant gliomas.

    He has been closely involved in phase I and II clinical trials of a heat-shock protein peptide complex vaccine (HSPPC-96) for glioblastoma, which is known to be highly immunosuppressive. In his laboratory, he studies mechanisms by which gliomas induce local immunoresistance and systemic immunosuppression in hope of identifying targets to modulate immunity in glioma patients that can be combined with active immunotherapy.

    Dr. Bloch was recently the lead author of a study that found patients with recurrent glioblastoma treated with HSPPC-96, showed an improved survival compared with historical patients who received the standard of care alone. The results of this phase II trial demonstrated that more than 90% of the patients treated with the vaccine candidate were alive at six months. The median overall survival in these patients was approximately 11 months.

    While further research is needed to assess safety and effectiveness of the vaccine before it is introduced to common use, the results are very promising. Under the leadership of Dr. Parsa, Dr. Bloch and other Northwestern Medicine researchers are currently conducting the next phase of this research to investigate if the HSPPC-96 vaccine is safe and more effective when given with Avastin (bevacizumab).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    For those who don't know Dr. Orin Bloch...

    by neelsen01 May 8, 2015 8:20 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 8, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    If we get a ph 3 trial, there is reportedly private equity ready to partner up. PPS min value then would be $50, but still have to convince the market to fetch that price as stigma of prophage stubbornly lingers. Fair value now is over $20 given what is accomplished and we're still under $7. The street seems to want to wait for solid results with this company. I've promoted the company, pressured journalists, solicited analysts/investors, and tweeted nearly every positive aspect of agen only to get the pps we're at now. Next week could be a big step if Dr. Bloch has a good report and our partnerships with 4AB are moving along.

    Shingles will be filed next year. I'm going to apply relentless pressure on gsk management to set the shingles vaccine price over $400 and set expectations with investors and management alike to attain a min sales of 10M units/yr. Malaria will be a feather in the cap but not much more. EMA is suppose to make a decision in the 2nd half of 2015. GSK will charge at cost plus 5% to be redirected in R&D for a better malaria vaccine or other similar humanitarian medicines.

    On the ever controversial royalty rate, I received an email response from Adam Feuerstein that said basically he had no reason not to believe the rate is 1.5-6% from his article on Oct 18,2011, but had not followed up with the company. But the company repeatedly conveys a "low single digit" rate as stated in the 10k. So, if we indeed only get 2-3% for the actual rate, and there still exists a range of 1.5-6%, essentially we will be getting ripped off and it has to be questioned what the hell Dr. Armen was thinking to agree on such a low return for a potentially commercial blockbuster. But, it could just be a coy move as the company could be under some undisclosed legal agreement to state a rate on the low side. We'll just have to wait and see.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • from $350-500+. At a minimum, the vaccine should be priced above $400. Anything less would border on incompetence.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the approval of agents to treat glioma, most notably Roche/Genentech/Chugai's Avastin, will drive market sales to more than double to more than $1.8 billion in 2017 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Market afraid to jump in before data is released. I just can't imagine the news being anything but promising given management's priorities for prophage this year. They must be confident, otherwise why put the top two priorities for 2015 in focus for prophage? Therefore, I believe the data will lead us to a ph 3 trial once a partner comes forward. Don't know how much we could make if prophage is ultimately approved, but a recent article suggest we're going to a $1.8B GBM market by as early as 2017. If we could even capture $75-150M of that market in recurrent rev plus $90M rev from shingles, we would surely be heading to $60-80/share based on 25-30 PE.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Charles Drake, M.D., Ph.D., Co-Director at the Prostate Cancer Multidisciplinary Clinic and Associate Professor of Oncology, Urology, and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. Dr. Drake is a leading authority on checkpoint modulators and will address recent progress, as well as key challenges and opportunities in the immuno-oncology field involving both antibody and vaccine therapeutics.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    For those who don't know Dr. Charles Drake...

    by neelsen01 May 12, 2015 12:19 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 12, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    With prostate cancer, the problem is mainly with us men not reporting symptoms or get psa/exams on a regular basis. With that said, there is a huge need here for better treatment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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