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Fortinet Inc. Message Board

neelsen01 188 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 25, 2015 10:58 AM Member since: Feb 13, 2013
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  • Dr. Lazarus suggested Iomab may be able to treat ALL white cell malignancies("across the board"). If Iomab passes this ph3 trial and goes on to do as well for all other indications in blood cancer, chemo may be on its way out for this type of cancer. At $85k/treatment, 300k pts/yr would bring in revs over $25B/yr which could imply a MC of over $250B or $7,000/share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • So we have to give mgmt. at least some credit for keeping costs low. They've done a great job in working with different hospitals getting Iomab this far, so let's give them some breathing room to get ph3 done right.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $765 million 1st year revenue...

    by neelsen01 Jun 13, 2015 8:20 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Jun 13, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    Adults greater than or equal to the age of 60 years old obviously have significant comorbidities or medical problems that younger individuals don’t have. They may have underlying diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, history of stroke, etc., and they may be on multiple medications to control their medical comorbidities, which may interact or confound the treatment of AML.In addition, patients in the elderly category have a different type of tumor biology than younger patients. AML in the elderly population tends to have a lot of biological features, which are associated with therapy resistance. For example, elderly patients have increased numbers of leukemia cells, which have unfavorable cytogenetics or molecular characteristics, which make it more difficult for them to be cured with standard chemotherapy. Sometimes the leukemia cells in older patients express drug resistant proteins, which also mediate therapy resistance. As well, many older patients have had a pre-existing hematologic disorder, such as MDS, or myeloproliferative disorders, which then make subsequent AML disease much harder to treat. - That's why Iomab is the best resource for these patients.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $765 million 1st year revenue...

    by neelsen01 Jun 13, 2015 8:20 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Jun 13, 2015 4:06 PM Flag

    I work in the medical field, and I can tell you, if ph 3 turns out as positive as ph 2, MDs and patients alike will want Iomab over chemo. For certain those 11k sickest patients will be given Iomab. The drug will then be moved up to "healthier" AML patients which will happen within weeks after launch. The only limitation to this scenario I see is the availability of the drug itself. Mgnt needs to be ready for the demand of Iomab.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Acute myeloid leukemia, or AML, is a disease of older adults. The median age of presentation of patients with AML is 69 to 70 years old. In 2014, an estimated 18,860 new cases of AML are expected to be diagnosed in the United States. We also expect there to be a significant mortality associated with this disease and statistics show that about 11,000 patients of these 18,000 will eventually die from this diagnosis.
    Doctors and patients alike will want the safest and most efficacious drug on the market to get them to HSCT in as short a timeframe as possible. Iomab offers the BEST solution for ALL of these patients. And for many, Iomab is the ONLY solution. At $85,000 per treatment x 18,000 patients a year would yield 1st year sales of $1.53B minus 50% for expenses(manf, dist, licensing fee) equals $765M 1st year revenue post FDA approval. Current budget is $15-20M/yr. That would give an EPS of $15/share if we have 50M shares by that time (4yrs). Multiply $15 x 10PE = $150/share min in four years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I wonder which ones offer the best advice? lol

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Longs and wannabes

    by terriertrader Jun 6, 2015 9:55 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Jun 11, 2015 9:10 PM Flag

    I'm about to shut down my campaign as well. Nobody wants to listen because they either refuse to see the value or just don't understand the technology. Either way, it's becoming a wasted effort. We may just have to wait until ph 3 finishes and Iomab gets approved. I'll make sure though to retweet all my recommendations on the stock once the rev comes rolling in. I'm sure the same will ignore those tweets as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • either they're not interested or do not have an answer to Iomab. My challenge was to anyone to find a reason Iomab would not prove superior to chemo in the upcoming ph 3 trial.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Think about it- patients cannot take anything BUT chemo in the control group. How can we expect anything different other than a reproduction of the benchmark results? Therefore, Iomab has no choice but to look better. Just based on getting the patient to HSTC in 10days, it is already superior. And guess what happens when Iomab is approved? It will be moved up to healthier patients with AML and other blood cancers because if Iomab can cure infirmed elderly patients, imagine what effect it could have on other patient populations? MDs and patients alike will not settle for any other treatment. The possibilities are remarkable.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Special thanks to Akiva Felt of Oppenheimer...

    by neelsen01 Jun 11, 2015 7:39 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Jun 11, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    I'm thinking ph 3 gets started towards the Fall. I could be wrong though with Dr Frost in the mix. He may help the company with the paperwork/logistics to hasten the start. Either way it looks like the way ph 3 is designed with pts taking chemo ONLY in the control group, how can we expect any different result other than the benchmark? So, in essence, Iomab can't help but to look superior just based on getting pts to HSCT in 10 days alone, much less the durable remission rate or survival rate 1st year. It's almost like Iomab has no choice but to succeed. This must be the closest sure thing a phase 3 trial has ever faced. But more importantly, once Iomab-B is approved, it will be immediately moved up to different AML groups and other related diseases to see if it's better than current treatments. If it can work in these infirmed very sick elderly patients, imagine what Iomab can do for other more healthy patients? The possibilities are remarkable.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • He was the only one receptive to me months ago when emailing analysts. I have since contacted him on ATNM. Take a look at this one guys-ageninrussia- look at Iomab-B-you will be impressed. Phase 3 skewed toward success as patients MUST take chemo in the control group.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Market Outlook

    by ellid Jun 9, 2015 7:16 PM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 Jun 9, 2015 9:43 PM Flag

    It's a bit late on the sell call. Do you really think a drug like Iomab will be left for dead? Someone will either partner to get Iomab to ph 3 or buy the company outright. Then, game over- bulls win.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • is not a bad investment. Phase 3 costs est between $25-30M. Just got $5M. Now, we need at least $20M. The money already in the bank will be for operating expenses over the next year. So, we either have a share raise for say, 7,200,000 at $2.80 or get a corporate partner and payback in rev percentage. I say go for the share raise. You lose in the short term, but win on the back end. If Iomab didn't have spectacular ph2 results or if the doctors on the panel were not that confident, then I would rather have a corporate partner so the risk is shared on ph3. But I think Iomab gets approved in 3yrs from now. Revs will be IMMEDIATE as everything is already in place upon approval.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Biotech community starting to realize what this company has- two drugs that may revolutionize tx for AML.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I engaged AF over the past two days. All he could come up with is paid ads. I have since admonished the company publicly. Dr. Jurcic and Iomab are 1st class all the way. The company admittedly could use better management, but a ph3 for Iomab getting underway could repair their credibility.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Patent-Protection response from Actinium VP

    by kdreesen May 28, 2015 8:05 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 28, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    Meant to do this myself. Thanks for making the effort! Good response from management. This should give us 10yrs+ of no competition.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Have to reiterate that these patients with relapse/refractory AML have NO other alternatives other than the current regimens that gives limited time to live. Iomab hastens the time it takes to get to HSCT (10DAYS).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • for patients that have no other viable alternative? Plus the fact that experts are hailing Iomab as change in paradigm for relapse/refractory AML. The FDA needs to move this ahead by whatever means within their protocols. I'm actually shock this is not on the market already given the efficacy and safety. These patients are already facing a certain death, so what does a ph 3 study really accomplish for these patients that are waiting? I can see if there were other treatments or a much longer time period for patients to consider another treatment plan, but in cases like this, Actinium or other companies should be allowed to move their drug forward on some type of "pending" approval based on a 6mo "probationary" time frame so that ALL patients may benefit, not just the study group, even though the control group will eventually be eligible for treatment in ph 3. Ph 2 results (life vs death, not just an improvement) has clearly established all necessary requirements in terms of efficacy and safety to get approval.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Keep the focus on the data...

    by neelsen01 May 25, 2015 11:22 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 25, 2015 6:53 PM Flag

    Just being conservative on the timeline. But I'm being aggressive on the call that Iomab will be approved sooner or later. It was pretty easy to tell later in that video just on body language, tone, and the fact there were no follow up questions, that this is a done deal. These patients have no other alternatives. How could the FDA possibly justify denying the approval unless serious adverse effects surface, which so far, hasn't. I don't think a larger pool of patients will have much problems either. And for the patients with poor cytogenetics, the FDA should approve it for them now, otherwise they are going to die anyway-100%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Keep the focus on the data...

    by neelsen01 May 25, 2015 11:22 AM
    neelsen01 neelsen01 May 25, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    after viewing the ny conf video, I'm more convinced than ever that this is going to happen sooner or later. Iomab-B will get FDA approval.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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