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iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN Message Board

nefariouswu 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 15, 2014 2:02 PM Member since: Mar 21, 2006
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  • nefariouswu nefariouswu Sep 15, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    Thanks, that is helpful to know. At 2.20, I believe you have locked in a relatively sure 125% or so gain which is very nice. I think it is quite likely SVXY will close over 90 by that time. I wish I could buy that spread for 1.67 and make it 200%.

  • I was looking at those again. The January 2016 for example, the 85/90 looks good to me except for the spread. Instead of paying 1.50 for a spread which could return 233%, you're looking at paying 3.50 because of bid/ask. This is awful.

  • Reply to

    Greek market continues higher

    by stockmessiah Aug 14, 2014 8:18 AM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Aug 14, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    hasn't helped the share price yet.

  • You can put that on for $1 and it should be worth $3 in 16 months as I expect Ford will be north of 20

  • Holy christ this is a run. This is creeping up on a 100% gain off the lows.

  • nefariouswu nefariouswu Aug 4, 2014 2:07 PM Flag

    Thanks man, great thoughts as always. To be honest I thought all weekend and I'm leaning toward completely shutting my account down.

    Friday I was desperately getting out of VXX short at the wrong time. Now today I find myself itching to get back in at much worse entry than Friday. I'm not doing it, but it shows I don't have the right mental makeup. Anyone who turns a 30% gain into 10% gain that quickly simply doesn't know how to play the game, so it's probably for the best to shut this down forever. This has been a great board!

  • Reply to

    Bottom??????? Not even close

    by tanertavlan Jul 31, 2014 10:56 AM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Aug 4, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    I think this is worth at least 30 cents right now. It's like free money.

  • Reply to

    Bottom??????? Not even close

    by tanertavlan Jul 31, 2014 10:56 AM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Aug 4, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    Really? I disagree strongly and think it's worth much more. Why not go ahead and explain your reasoning rather than just blindly bashing?

  • Reply to

    Oh Yeah trying to be strong and long

    by dankinral Aug 4, 2014 10:09 AM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Aug 4, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    May I ask what kind of return you have generated on your account buying puts this year? The reason I ask is every time I look the puts always seem so incredibly expensive. However I am looking for new avenues as I can never find shares to short outright and I got blown up shorting naked calls (went from +30% annual gain to + 8% for the year, destructive loss).

  • Reply to

    Hoping for UVXY to open lower

    by razie1962 Aug 3, 2014 11:10 PM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Aug 4, 2014 12:28 AM Flag

    It will most likely go straight down the pooper because I already booked incredible losses on the naked calls I shorted. 24 to 34 and now back to 24 I would guess. Shoot me now.

  • Booked a 7% loss on my capital Friday alone and Friday too my YTD gain from 30% to just 7%. If VXX is flattish for the next 4-6 weeks (does not rise more than 20%) I will be up only 10% for the year instead of that 30% which is gone forever since I booked the loss. Really unfortunate, it does seem like these cannot go up anymore so I don't know why I was scared. But it took me out back and shot me in the walnuts.

  • Reply to

    uvee Aug expiration target price.

    by dankinral Aug 3, 2014 1:41 PM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Aug 3, 2014 7:47 PM Flag

    You know the worst? I would have been ahead just to short VXX with 1/3 of my money and leaving it rather than selling calls, because that's twice now I got in too heavy on the calls and had to cover on a big spike. It's so stupid I can hardly believe it. Never again, now got to just forget about it and try to make a new plan.

  • I wanted to ask if you have seen the guy Macro Investor on seeking alpha. He has back tested a strategy that does this: first week of January you put 50% of your money in SVXY, 37.5% in SVXY calls expiring 12 months out that are 40% out of money, and 12.5% in SVXY puts expiring 12 months out that are 30% out of the money.

    The annual return since 2005 is 125% with a max draw down of 48%. In other words in 10 years 10K would turn into about 20 million dollars. What do you think about this, is it something you would ever try?

  • Reply to

    uvee Aug expiration target price.

    by dankinral Aug 3, 2014 1:41 PM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Aug 3, 2014 7:03 PM Flag

    Hello Dan you probably will be OK since you're a very good trader. I am done with these things probably forever. Basically I can't seem to stop myself from shorting VXX calls. Recently I shorted some September 70 calls when they were 20 cents. Should have taken profit. They went to 10 cents, then about 60 cents early afternoon Friday. I had so many that it turned what for me was a good year (+30%) into + 7%. And it can get worse. For example if VXX were to hit 60 before September I would go to maybe 10% down for the year. If I get back to a 10% gain on the year I will cover the rest for sure.

    I wanted to ask if you have seen the guy Macro Investor on seeking alpha. He has back tested a strategy that does this: first week of January you put 50% of your money in SVXY, 37.5% in SVXY calls expiring 12 months out that are 40% out of money, and 12.5% in SVXY puts expiring 12 months out that are 30% out of the money.

    The annual return since 2005 is 125% with a max draw down of 48%. In other words in 10 years 10K would turn into about 20 million dollars. What do you think about this, is it something you would ever try?

  • nefariouswu nefariouswu Aug 2, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    Right on, I would love to come up with something that works in up and down markets. Obviously what I was doing was contingent on an artificially calm market hence the bloodbath last week and probably this week until I get out.

    Can you give us a little idea about your algorithm, what it trades, how you came up with it? 2% per month over a long period, of many years would really be an incredible boon. That's basically doubling your money every 3 years.

    I know ZIV has averaged 2% per month but again has depended on crazy Fed bubble to get there, not sure what will happen when QE goes away. Maybe it sounds too good to be true but I guess it's possible you could just put a bunch of money in ZIV, leave it there for a long time and you get 25% per year or so with basically no maintenance? Probably is too good to be true.

  • nefariouswu nefariouswu Aug 2, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    Joey, I appreciate your opinions and the time you take to lay them out.
    There is no question XIV was a bad risk recently. The funny thing is some of the guys I follow and respect like Hussman, Smithers, Grantham are all calling for a 50% decline in the market over the next few years. So maybe the absolute top isn't in yet, but if those guys are right there is a good chance XIV will drop 90% or more even from here and go back to 2011 levels. It really, really is possible. Maybe it won't happen, but it's certainly a strong possibility.

    I assume there is a way I could get authorization for futures from my broker. Out of curiosity what kind of monthly returns have you found are possible using "responsible" (as you rightly note) management? Is that something you can reliably make 2-3% per month doing?

    Judging by after hours there is going to be a further pop in VXX/drop in XIV Monday. VXX was at a big discount to closing NAV. I will probably close everything out next week and in all likelihood will be at best flat for the year. Hard to take after being up 30%, but then again I was only up 30% by being foolish and lucky (and then not knowing when to get out).

    If I can get out at break even for the year I will probably just count myself lucky and take a mulligan and take a little time to do some deep thinking and studying. This seems a very dangerous time. How high do you think the VIX would go if we run back down to 1200 on S&P? Maybe 60, 70?

  • Reply to

    For the non-doomers..

    by joeydorknobinschmidtjunior Aug 1, 2014 10:00 PM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Aug 2, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    Good work Joey, wish I had seen this. Man I took a beating this week, almost all of the year's profits gone, but I think this is becoming a nice opportunity to get a huge position in ZIV and ride it to a 4-6 bagger in the next few years.

  • First of all, got to admit I got real greedy lately loading up XIV and as a result my YTD performance went from +20% to break even. Ouch! but anyway...

    I have been thinking a lot about ZIV. First of all, real dumb question, I understand how the NIV of SVXY/XIV is determined but with ZIV, where do you look to find the contango benefit at any given time?

    Second I was wondering how you feel about the longer term with these products. Since they haven't been around outside of the QE era, how do you feel about their long term performance potential. I saw where the simulated return for XIV is over 30% per year back to 2004 when the VIX futures began trading. I am not sure what it would be for ZIV but I assume it would be a little lower (maybe 20-25% per year) but with smaller drawdowns.

    I'm in a position where I have a good chunk I can leave in the market for many years (talking 20+ years minimum). Am I crazy to put almost all of that in ZIV? Do you know any way I can find out how ZIV would have performed back to 2004? If it's a decent positive number since then, I would feel pretty comfortable since that includes the major crash in 2008/09 and also the big prolonged cluster bomb in 2011 that saw XIV lose 80% and ZIV 30%.

    Thanks man, good weekend to you, I'm going out to get a case of beer and drown my sorrows from this past week.

VXX
27.23+0.03(+0.11%)Sep 19 4:00 PMEDT

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