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iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN Message Board

nefariouswu 163 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 12, 2014 1:28 PM Member since: Mar 21, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Watch 20

    by svxybear Apr 11, 2014 10:44 PM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Apr 12, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    Hello Joey. I have not been posting much since ZIV is so boring. One thing I noticed is it always seems to trade at a premium to NAV, between 1 and 2%. Any take on that?

    I am thinking about switching ZIV to XIV with at least part of my ZIV position. I think on a long term basis even with occasional big drawdowns a buy and hold approach will yield roughly 30% return on each. That's doubling your money about every 30 months, i.e 16 fold increase in a decade. I know that sounds too good to be true, what do you think about it?

  • Reply to

    Good morning Joey

    by nefariouswu Mar 26, 2014 12:11 PM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Mar 26, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Could be, could be. I am having trouble pulling up this message board for some reason, I wonder if that's a sign! Keep getting this weird error message probably just the usual problems with free yahoo services.

    I am feeling quite complacent with ZIV right now. Looked at a 2 year chart and it's almost as good as XIV with much less volatility. I know people are saying the trade is "dead" or whatever because it has not gone anywhere this year, but to me contango is the natural order of things and I would expect maybe 2.5% long term average return for ZIV, which is nearly 33% per year. I'm not as active a trader as you, looks like you are finding plenty of opportunities. I really hope with all my heart we don't see another big market drop like we have 3 times in the past 15 years, things are so fragile right now and confidence is shaky.

  • I know it was a one time thing and of course exceedingly unlikely, but in deciding whether to play with VXX in addition to ZIV I am wondering if it can be calculated. I am guessing the spike would have been incredible.

  • nefariouswu by nefariouswu Mar 26, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    This market is boring the life out of me. The calm before the storm perhaps? I didn't realize the incredible variety of measures that show stocks to be very overpriced and with Fed withdrawing, wonder what will happen.

    There was a guy named Juan who used to post here and had supposedly reconstructed what VXX would have done in 2008/09 crash, it was a 700% rise or something crazy. Seems to me like even a 20% market drop could triple it or more so I am definitely on the ZIV side for a while rather than SVXY. Do you think that kind of move in VXX is very likely or no? It's really hard to know since we don't have a history of these products outside of QE.

  • Reply to

    125% in ZIV 38.75

    by nefariouswu Mar 18, 2014 11:03 AM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Mar 19, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    Was away today, wish i had been around to get 200% in ziv huge rally tomorrow. Oh well.

  • Reply to

    At what point does he shutter the fund?

    by nefariouswu Mar 11, 2014 11:29 AM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Mar 18, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    At $200 million he would be taking in 2 million annually in fees. You're right that seems like a number where below that it could be a problem to keep the doors open. I can't see how he would do it with $100 million. How often are AUM updated? I have to think when the Dow hits 20K in a year he will have had massive, massive redemptions.

  • Dow 20K in under 12 months and ZIV will soar. You cannot worry about valuations.

  • Reply to

    125% in ZIV 38.75

    by nefariouswu Mar 18, 2014 11:03 AM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Mar 18, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Finally subscribed to a backtesting service. He's 125% in ZIV. Just going to mirror him for a while. I believe we will see the Dow near 20K in 12 months so I think we're in for some nice moves on the volatility products. Got to stop overthinking it, stop worrying about stocks being overvalued there just isn't anywhere else to put your money.

  • nefariouswu nefariouswu Mar 18, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    Oops got my wires crossed- the one in 2007 ended the second longest run, which was almost 5 years. There was a 10 year period ending in 1997 that was the longest. It looks like that 10 year record will be crushed.

  • nefariouswu by nefariouswu Mar 18, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    I won't be fooled again.

  • Reply to

    Sold it all. Can't pass up being in the green

    by nefariouswu Mar 17, 2014 12:22 PM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Mar 17, 2014 11:33 PM Flag

    Good advice. Outsmarted myself today. Maybe I will have a core ziv position nd add xiv only if we get that correction. By efficient market I meant how can there be a product that is guaranteed to go up over time. I know there cannot be and in a crash scenario svxy would Los almost 100%. For sure I would sell portions of it on the way up but it's not good to ever be all in or all out of these products from the built in edge. Looks like another 2 or 3% for svxy tomorrow maybe 10% by Friday.

  • Reply to

    Sold it all. Can't pass up being in the green

    by nefariouswu Mar 17, 2014 12:22 PM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Mar 17, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    I sold near HOD, but you're right it looks like a big SVXY gap up tomorrow. I can't get out of my own way. I keep worrying about the market being overvalued and 3 crashes in 11 years, thinking there could be a 4th crash but there cannot. I just need to remind myself sometimes.

  • It just seems too easy, guaranteed profits long XIV. It can't be this easy, but why hasn't the market figured this out and taken away the free lunch? Really confusing.

  • Guess it's some of these dramatic days but this is actually still in the red almost a quarter into the year. I just checked and the longest ever period without a correction was 7 years, ending in 2007. Of course we know what happened shortly thereafter. The big thing for me going forward I think is to just forget about what happened in 2011. That seemed like such an ordinary thing because it was essentially the 4th "Crash" in 10 years (although it was not as big as the other 3). When you have that many crashes it feels like the next one could come at any time, but really it cannot.

  • Reply to

    I guess ZIV actually is the superior product

    by nefariouswu Mar 17, 2014 2:19 AM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Mar 17, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    Yes it is. The only question is when will the 10% correction happen. I think the perception is now that the market is completely rigged so wonder if the big guys might take it for a correction. I don't like the risk reward right now on SVXY so I am out. UVXY short is another matter since you also have great compounding decay from the 2X.

  • All weekend I was wondering what the heck would happen today, so I'm out and hopefully will stay out until the 10% correction. That might not happen while I'm alive though.

  • Reply to

    I guess ZIV actually is the superior product

    by nefariouswu Mar 17, 2014 2:19 AM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Mar 17, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    I actually wish we could get back to a period of reasonable stock valuations and also decent fixed income returns for retirees. It would take a 40% drop or more in stocks to get back to where they could return the historical "Expected" 10% per year. And it would be wonderful for retirees to make 4, 5% rather than working as a greeter at Walmart or Home Depot until they get rolled into a casket. But the powers that be have no interest in this.

  • Reply to

    I guess ZIV actually is the superior product

    by nefariouswu Mar 17, 2014 2:19 AM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Mar 17, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    Ha ha! I was embarrassed to say but I was way over 100% at Friday's close. Just sold some to pare back to 100% but the good news is my cost basis is now well under 57. Woot woot! I got to admit it doesn't make any sense how this market can go 3 years without a correction, but some of the "gurus" are calling for another 20-30% gain in 2014. Crazy! What is your estimation for ZIV/XIV response to a 10% correction. Looks to me like ZIV would likely lose 25% and XIV 50%, something on that order. Kind of a scary thing except I'm not sure corrections are "allowed" anymore!

  • Reply to

    I guess ZIV actually is the superior product

    by nefariouswu Mar 17, 2014 2:19 AM
    nefariouswu nefariouswu Mar 17, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    Wow man, what a day. This is the biggest % gain I have ever had in my account in a single day. I am so over leveraged it's not even funny. I guess I will just ride this bubble a while.

  • Been studying this all weekend. For the nimble, active trader XIV is best. For someone who just wants to plod along and benefit from contango without having to watch it every day ZIV is better, and if you plot their returns against each other they get closer and closer as the time horizon gets longer. I am giving some considering to selling half my SVXY and putting that money in ZIV.

VXX
41.71-0.64(-1.51%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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