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Hugoton Royalty Trust Message Board

neilfe99 19 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Jan 9, 2007
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  • how is this stock not above 5.25. they beat huge on EBITDA and guidance looks great. pricing was a bit weak but they are hedged and looks like operations are going better than projected. Gotta think the $5 resistance will not hold going forward

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Any Signs of Intelligence???

    by neilfe99 Apr 20, 2015 1:56 PM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 Apr 20, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    thank you guys - -at least we have some intelligent feedback...for REXX to come on the high side of any guidance is a positive given the valuation,. Also, sounds like we get an announcement of sale in the next 2 months, could be well over $50MM, which would be a pleasant surprise. Not sure the Illinois Basin had ever been spoke about - I never saw it???

  • I am a hedge fund manager who occasionally posts on here and I am amazed at the lack of intelligence on this board. REXX put out a fairly substantial release this morning and not a single comment, but lots of idiotic posts on the technicals and a takeout that has been happening for the past 2 years

    If anyone intelligent ever wants to have a conversation, let me know, this board is a waste of time

  • my REXX calls have been spot on...Called the bottom at 3.70 last last, and have been begging people on the board to swap into June 5 calls. Anyone who thinks there is a potential buyout, you are crazy not to buy right here at .45 cents. REXX is finally starting to get credit from the increased liquidity of the JV, potential asset sales in Q2 and yes, maybe a buyout, which i still doubt.

    SWAP each 1000 shares for 10 contracts of the REXX June 5 calls at 45 cents. and thank me in a few weeks

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Quarter End Window Dressing Over??

    by neilfe99 Apr 2, 2015 11:06 AM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 Apr 6, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    perhaps we get to $4.50 quicker than i thought...i have swapped my 5000 shares into 100 of the June 5 calls at 40 cents....that is a no-brainer

    Sentiment: Buy

  • seems like shorts (35% of float) wanted to keep this down thru quarter end to improve their marks and incentive fees. News has been great, oil has rebounded nicely and even nat gas had a great # today. REXX should be over $4.50 but at the very least, the bottom should be in at around $3.50 or higher, even if oil breaks below 44. Upside s probably back to $5 in the next few months barring a takeout.

    Once again, the June 5 calls are far and away the cheapest way to play this thing - and then trading around the stock in the meantime

    Sentiment: Buy

  • neilfe99 neilfe99 Apr 1, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    best guess is quarter end window dressing. There is no way to take any of the news from yesterday as a negative and the move in oil is good for Liquid Nat Gas, which is where the majority of the new development is going. We will be back over 4 in the next week or 2 - my fair value is $5 but too much negative sentiment to get there in the next few weeks

  • neilfe99 neilfe99 Apr 1, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    I have gotten alot of questions about the REXX JV...Stock was initally up 5% in the pre-market - trading to $4.15 and is now down at $3.70

    My take is that ANY LIQUIDITY is a big positive for the company, and they know have a PARTNER for this project and future projects. They are CUTTING cap-ex which is a big positive and production is only decreasing slightly. Plenty of liquidity on relatively untapped revolver, and they should be able to sell their Clearwater services biz for 50-75MM

    Cant explain the negative stock action, especially with oil reversing nicely off its low - i think stock should be closer to $4.50 not $3.50, but that was why i recommended the June 5 calls, so you can take advantage of this volatility

  • Reply to

    MY GOSH MAN WHAT ARE THEY THINKING???????????

    by hooyasay Mar 31, 2015 7:05 PM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 Mar 31, 2015 7:19 PM Flag

    you got it backwards - they are CUTTING cap-ex and bringing in a partner with capital who wants to drill

    stock should have been UP 10% today

  • Reply to

    REXX Probabilities

    by neilfe99 Mar 31, 2015 8:57 AM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 Mar 31, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    stock should be up 5-10% on this news - especially extrapolating the fact that they have a new source of capital. The only negative I heard is that this is a short term fix - but with REXX trading at such a discount, any fix is a good one - and gives them liquidity for 2017 and beyond

  • neilfe99 by neilfe99 Mar 31, 2015 8:57 AM Flag

    #pi7979 - these are my probabilities - REXX announced a JV today as I said they might just a few days ago - unfortunately it comes on a day that oil is getting crushed - otherwise, we would be up 10%

    I simply laid out the probabilities as I know them - since i know the companywell

    Was hoping my post was more substantial than some idiot coming in and saying REXX is getting bought out any day

    Sentiment: Buy

  • neilfe99 by neilfe99 Mar 27, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    tried telling everyone to swap into options to take advantage of this volatility,. 20% move in just 2 days...for every 1000 shares, you sell, buy 20 of the June 5 calls..You can day trade the stock and you have a free bonus IF there is a takeover or JV announcement

  • Stock is down from 4.49 yesterday to 3.85 today - 15% move in 1 1/2 days

    if the train is leaving the station, the engine might be going in reverse

    BUY THE JUNE 5 CALLS - much safer

  • neilfe99 neilfe99 Mar 26, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    it amazes me that more people respond to any random moron who shouts out that we are getting bought out any day now - versus someone who provides a rational thought out idea - this is why hedge funds dont post on boards

  • neilfe99 neilfe99 Mar 25, 2015 6:24 PM Flag

    last point...with 35% of the float short and the days to cover now the highest since Sept 2014 - volatility should be at its peak. Just looking from Sept 2014 to Oct 2014 - REXX went from $15 to $8 in just one month. Hopefully, with oil stable to reversing - a 50% move up can get us over $6 (remember, its much easier to move 50% from $4 than it was from $15), but if oil turns back down, it was only a month ago that REXX was 2.75 , so one can easily swap back from the options into the stock and have saved themselves quite a bit of pain)

    GLTA

  • I promise this is not a pump scam with a link to making big money from a website. I am a smid hedge fund manager who has been trading REXX for the better part of 3 years

    Having followed the history, now is the perfect time to swap out of REXX stock into call options. The borrow rate to short REXX has increased a little bit lately, which has placed pressure of the REXX call options, especially the June 5 calls. If you can sell your stock at 4.15 or higher - you can swap into the June 5 calls for 45/50 cents.

    Here are the scenarios along with my percent probabilities

    a) 10% - REXX gets bought at 6 or higher - which if it happens, is likely to be by July 1
    b) 25% - REXX sell its JV asset - great liquidity boost - stock easily up 10% if price is in line
    c) 20% - Oil continues its rebound and trades to $55 (war in Yemen?) - REXX trades $6 or higher
    d) 30% - We are near the high end of the range in crude - stock goes back to 3/4
    e) 15% - stock moves towards $5+ but REXX having trouble finding JV buyer and doe an equity raise. Hopefully, as it has moved higher, you have sold more shares

    As you can see from the above scenarios - swapping stock at 4.15 and paying 50 cents for a 3 month call option will give you lots of bang for the buck . If you assume just one month out that REXX is either 3.15 or $5.15 - the options would be trading at either 10 cents or .90 cents. If they are trading towards the the low end - you take a 35 cent loss instead of a $1 loss - if they trade at the high end - you doubled your money in just a month.

    Depending on your current view of REXX - if you are still bullish - buy 100 contacts and sell 3k/4k shares, if slightly bearish but still want exposure, buy 100 contracts and sell 5/6k

    GLTA

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    down on heavy volume?

    by julson73 Mar 2, 2015 6:23 PM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 Mar 2, 2015 11:25 PM Flag

    is there a number less than 0?? Just slashed Capex by 75%, cash flow positive and hedged up at $90. We should be back above $9

    Sentiment: Buy

  • neilfe99 by neilfe99 Feb 26, 2015 7:49 PM Flag

    hi folks..i like REXX LONGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG term, but anyone buying it today based off the PVA news will be heartbroken..Stock can easily fall back to $4/4.50....We need stock to trade over $5 for a period of time before we can get our next up move

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SLCA or EMES

    by johnlukisretard Feb 24, 2015 5:36 PM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 Feb 24, 2015 6:04 PM Flag

    slca at 27 versus EMES at 54...i would buy SLCA and short EMES...SLCA far better quality

HGT
5.05+0.06(+1.20%)May 5 4:02 PMEDT