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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

neilfe99 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 5, 2015 11:11 PM Member since: Jan 9, 2007
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  • Reply to

    How was this stock UP today

    by neilfe99 Jul 29, 2015 4:46 PM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 Aug 5, 2015 11:11 PM Flag

    4 thumbs down now...meanwhile its down almost 25% since my call


  • Reply to

    How was this stock UP today

    by neilfe99 Jul 29, 2015 4:46 PM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 Aug 1, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    lol..3 thumbs down - yet if you shorted it at 2.10 when i wrote this - you could have covered Friday for 10% gain... SMH

  • i get it...lots of short covering in the really beaten up energy space but operations update was a mess, wells came in worse than expected and WLL earnings show how bad pricing in the Bakken is....This should be right back to $1.75 or below???

    Can someone give me the bull case??

  • in its bullish production release today, REXX reported pricing of $2.44 which was a good 30 to 40 cents below expectaions. Expectations hould have been ratched down given other producers in the region - so lets see if the stock holds here.. This portends for a not so great EPS number next week - but they have given more than enough bread crumbs for people to figure that out

    and CFK - get in touch with me

  • Reply to

    Serious Question

    by neilfe99 Jul 25, 2015 4:57 PM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 Jul 26, 2015 6:45 PM Flag

    amazing how no one points to the short interest....the short interest is way more brutal than last time but this is a way better company with a way better balance sheet. I can understand how/why shorts target certain leveraged companies in E&P with pil falling again - this just seems like the wrong one now

  • Reply to

    Serious Question

    by neilfe99 Jul 25, 2015 4:57 PM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 Jul 26, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    thanks LH and CFK for serious answers. I do believe that as much as margin made people liquidate - a majority of those liquidations came when the stock broke $5. On the short side, this gets marked UP to a $5 stock - so for every share short, you need $5 of capital, plus the cost of borrow is currently around 20% and could go higher. Management has been very timely in releases, i cant see any surprises either way on the call, and the fact that REXX doesnt need financing, and def DOESNT need a capital raise, are very good things. My only advice is dont sell too early - if oil goes into the low 50's, we should get back to 3.50 in short order with an OK conf call. In the meantime, the Sept 2.50 calls offer good income while you wait, if you want to do some covered calls

  • neilfe99 by neilfe99 Jul 25, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    So, REXX is trading at its all time low but the last time that happened - oil was in free fall - whereas now we have a better idea that it should hold in the mid 40's..REXX should be trading iwth nat gas, which it never seems to, and that commodity hasnt been crushed like oil and has a different demand curve - not dependant on China

    More significantly - since the last time REXX traded as this price it has done the following

    a) updated new successes with current and future wells that werent reserved for last time
    b) gotten a JV partner
    c) sold it water processing plant for $60MM
    d) has demonstrated that is has NO NEAR TERM LIQUIDITY CONCERNS

    as opposed to companies like MHR,and SD who irt seems to get lumped in with

    Given the above - can anyone please explain to me how the share price has gotten this ridciculous. i know that CS downgraded the stock, but they also downgraded CRK which has held up extremely well and has a far worse balance sheet, And with a short interest of 22MM shares (more than 50% of the float) - the peak was 15MM (only 38% of the float) shares before all of the above happened - a short must be hoping for a bankruptcy that isnt going to be happennign anytime in the next 2 years. Add on top of that , the stock is very expensive if not impossible to short now, and if buy-ins start to occur - the stock could easily double from here if nothing is wrong

    Can anyone please give me a serious explanation on what has happened BESIDES the technicals looking weak

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • neilfe99 neilfe99 Jun 21, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    they needed to make sure the price was under $5 so they wouldnt have options exercised on them. there were about 3MM shares they would have been forced to cover if stock closed meaningfully above $5. Expect it to rally next week

  • News on the new wells was a modest to strong positive as the testing came in stronger than most expected. The water sale will be announced in the next 2 weeks - they are hitting on all cylinders?

    will 4.80 turn out to be the buy of the year?????

    Sentiment: Buy

19.19+0.08(+0.42%)Sep 3 4:00 PMEDT