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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

neilfe99 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2015 3:42 PM Member since: Jan 9, 2007
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  • neilfe99 neilfe99 Jun 21, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    they needed to make sure the price was under $5 so they wouldnt have options exercised on them. there were about 3MM shares they would have been forced to cover if stock closed meaningfully above $5. Expect it to rally next week

  • News on the new wells was a modest to strong positive as the testing came in stronger than most expected. The water sale will be announced in the next 2 weeks - they are hitting on all cylinders?

    will 4.80 turn out to be the buy of the year?????

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings Blowout??

    by neilfe99 May 5, 2015 5:01 PM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 May 6, 2015 12:26 PM Flag

    i guess it is above 5.25...remember - its still cheap because shorties spent lots of firepower keeping it below 5..once they have to cover - should get overbought - but not till 6+

  • neilfe99 by neilfe99 May 5, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    how is this stock not above 5.25. they beat huge on EBITDA and guidance looks great. pricing was a bit weak but they are hedged and looks like operations are going better than projected. Gotta think the $5 resistance will not hold going forward

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Any Signs of Intelligence???

    by neilfe99 Apr 20, 2015 1:56 PM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 Apr 20, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    thank you guys - -at least we have some intelligent feedback...for REXX to come on the high side of any guidance is a positive given the valuation,. Also, sounds like we get an announcement of sale in the next 2 months, could be well over $50MM, which would be a pleasant surprise. Not sure the Illinois Basin had ever been spoke about - I never saw it???

  • I am a hedge fund manager who occasionally posts on here and I am amazed at the lack of intelligence on this board. REXX put out a fairly substantial release this morning and not a single comment, but lots of idiotic posts on the technicals and a takeout that has been happening for the past 2 years

    If anyone intelligent ever wants to have a conversation, let me know, this board is a waste of time

  • my REXX calls have been spot on...Called the bottom at 3.70 last last, and have been begging people on the board to swap into June 5 calls. Anyone who thinks there is a potential buyout, you are crazy not to buy right here at .45 cents. REXX is finally starting to get credit from the increased liquidity of the JV, potential asset sales in Q2 and yes, maybe a buyout, which i still doubt.

    SWAP each 1000 shares for 10 contracts of the REXX June 5 calls at 45 cents. and thank me in a few weeks

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Quarter End Window Dressing Over??

    by neilfe99 Apr 2, 2015 11:06 AM
    neilfe99 neilfe99 Apr 6, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    perhaps we get to $4.50 quicker than i thought...i have swapped my 5000 shares into 100 of the June 5 calls at 40 cents....that is a no-brainer

    Sentiment: Buy

  • seems like shorts (35% of float) wanted to keep this down thru quarter end to improve their marks and incentive fees. News has been great, oil has rebounded nicely and even nat gas had a great # today. REXX should be over $4.50 but at the very least, the bottom should be in at around $3.50 or higher, even if oil breaks below 44. Upside s probably back to $5 in the next few months barring a takeout.

    Once again, the June 5 calls are far and away the cheapest way to play this thing - and then trading around the stock in the meantime

    Sentiment: Buy

  • neilfe99 neilfe99 Apr 1, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    best guess is quarter end window dressing. There is no way to take any of the news from yesterday as a negative and the move in oil is good for Liquid Nat Gas, which is where the majority of the new development is going. We will be back over 4 in the next week or 2 - my fair value is $5 but too much negative sentiment to get there in the next few weeks

  • neilfe99 neilfe99 Apr 1, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    I have gotten alot of questions about the REXX JV...Stock was initally up 5% in the pre-market - trading to $4.15 and is now down at $3.70

    My take is that ANY LIQUIDITY is a big positive for the company, and they know have a PARTNER for this project and future projects. They are CUTTING cap-ex which is a big positive and production is only decreasing slightly. Plenty of liquidity on relatively untapped revolver, and they should be able to sell their Clearwater services biz for 50-75MM

    Cant explain the negative stock action, especially with oil reversing nicely off its low - i think stock should be closer to $4.50 not $3.50, but that was why i recommended the June 5 calls, so you can take advantage of this volatility

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