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Gastar Exploration Inc. Message Board

neiljneil 199 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 19, 2014 1:48 PM Member since: Oct 27, 2006
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  • Reply to

    UPL @ IPAA OGIS Conference Monday

    by bqdoo Sep 19, 2014 1:15 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 19, 2014 1:48 PM Flag

    OGIS - Oil and Gas Investment Symposium

  • Reply to

    natural gas fundamentals

    by arnoldboils Sep 18, 2014 11:45 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 19, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    I would not ne surprised to see at least one more 100+ build in the near term to accompany the 90+ infusions. There is no question that the supply juggernaut is hurting NG pricing. How much of these expected material injections is factored into the price presently is difficult to know. Though I tend to agree that short term the stock price may go down I am a longer term holder and can't be concerned about the stock price for the next few weeks. The fact is that no one really knows anything for sure about the stock pricing in the near term.

  • neiljneil neiljneil Sep 18, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    There is a reason. You may or may not believe the sell-off is too severe but denial of the facts is never a good thing.

  • Reply to

    headed lower

    by chicosan3 Sep 18, 2014 10:29 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 18, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    Can I get a peak at your crystal ball?

  • Reply to

    Good Company.......Lousy Stock

    by morristhomas51 Sep 18, 2014 12:06 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 18, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    One cannot argue your logic as compared to the market for the last 4 years this stock does suck. But it is more the industry than this company. Many bright investors have lost their shirts betting on Natural Gas too early. They could not anticipate a combination of highly advanced drilling techniques and a very negative government environment. Nonetheless this does not make them wrong, just too early. The basic rule of thumb in investing is that you should be prepared to wait a minimum of 5 years on any investment. This rule is more than true for this industry. I suggest that you don't give up, rather that you dig in. At least that is what I am doing.

  • Reply to

    Weekly storage report for Sept. 18, 2014

    by neiljneil Sep 17, 2014 10:14 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 18, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    We have an injection of 90. Not bad. It is in the lower portion of my estimate and is lower than the last injection. It is still not great news based on last years injection for this week but I am ok with it.

  • Reply to

    Weekly storage report for Sept. 18, 2014

    by neiljneil Sep 17, 2014 10:14 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 17, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    Wow! That makes the deal with Shell look that much better. More Western and less Eastern exposure. It will take a while to build up the proper infrastructure to accomodate the Marcellus region.

  • Reply to

    Weekly storage report for Sept. 18, 2014

    by neiljneil Sep 17, 2014 10:14 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 17, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    Back to ignore. The only reason you have few comments to your rantings is that most already have you on ignore.

  • Reply to

    Weekly storage report for Sept. 18, 2014

    by neiljneil Sep 17, 2014 10:14 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 17, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    Not true. Read prior posts. I am reporting your slander as an abuse. I suggest that others that have had it with you do the same.

  • Reply to

    Weekly storage report for Sept. 18, 2014

    by neiljneil Sep 17, 2014 10:14 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 17, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    During more temperate days in the spring and fall, when pipeline capacity is generally sufficient to meet lower demand, the proximity of northeastern hubs to increasing Marcellus Region production results in prices that are lower than those in other parts of the United States. Therefore I suspect that we are getting under $4.00 and probably under $3.90, possibly even $3.80 in the Northeast but I don't have that figure presently.

  • Based on my material underestimate for last week I suggest you understand that my estimates are clearly not always going to be accurate. However they are usually not so far off from what Wall Street is expecting. Wall Street also underestimated the injection for last week. This week my guess is between an 88 and 98 injection with a hope for under 90. and a fear for 100+. If anyone has any other thoughts about tomorrow's injection please chime in.

  • Reply to

    neiljneil

    by juan_ton_amigo Sep 16, 2014 9:05 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 17, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    You must be an annoyance to all that read your garbage. You never discuss anything about the company. You simply malign anyone trying to share infiomation. This is abusive behavior and deserves to be reported as such. I recommend all who are annoyed with you to "report abuse".

  • Reply to

    HK Isa

    by juan_ton_amigo Sep 16, 2014 1:04 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 16, 2014 4:42 PM Flag

    I believe that juan is either a paid short or just a disgusting human being who enjoys being abusive. He adds no information to any board he spews his diatribe. I decided to report him as abusive to Yahoo and suggest all that have had it with his nonesense do the same.

  • Chevron Corp. (CVX)’s experiments and research into turning plants into alternative fuels that can be profitably manufactured on a large scale have failed.

    The second-largest U.S. oil company by market value spent “significant sums” and assigned some of its best scientists to evaluate more than 100 kinds of feedstock and 50 techniques for converting them into fuels without success, Chevron Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Watson said today in remarks prepared for an Economic Club of Minnesota lunch in Minneapolis.

  • Reply to

    More export facilities approved.

    by neiljneil Sep 12, 2014 4:05 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 12, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    One more comment. The process of liquifying, shipping and regassifying the fuel is expected to cost $4 to $8 per thousand cubic feet. Considering that NG goes for $17 in Asia and $13 in Europe presently it would appear that a vast market is ready willing and able to import oodles of NG from the US. There are no guarantees in this world but there are probabilities and statistics. I like the probabilities for investing in the NG industry and specifically in a well run company like UPL. It will take a long time for this card to fully play out.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy this week approved licenses for two more liquefied natural gas export terminals. One is for Carib energy LLC and the other is Sempra Energy. Together they will have an export capacity of 3.94 bcf per day! Per day! Now it is true that these plants may take 4 years to build but this is on top of numerous other plants already under construction. I reiterate $6 NG prices in 4 years is a realistic and perhaps conservative expectation. All the rest is short term trading. If you knew that you could at least double and perhaps triple you money in 4 years in a given investment would you do it? That is how I feel about UPL.

  • Reply to

    This Thursday September 11, 2014

    by neiljneil Sep 4, 2014 10:50 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 11, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    92 for this weeks injection. I was clearly pretty far off. Looks like I may have to retire from making these weekly projections. If we are at 92 on a relatively warm summerlike week then 100+ injections can't be far off. The good news is that we are still going to end up with below normal inventoty amounts before this winter. The bad news is that the production juggernaut appears to be out of control. Let's hope the injection period is short lived before drawdown season as some have suggested to to a projected cold snap.

  • Reply to

    Fact

    by neiljneil Sep 2, 2014 11:50 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 10, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    711 not 71

  • Reply to

    Fact

    by neiljneil Sep 2, 2014 11:50 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 9, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    More facts - The amount of natural gas export capacity that is in the approval process is huge: 42 billion cubic feet per day! That's just not going to happen in the near term. However if even 20 bcf per day were exported the US NG market would light up like the sun. The export projections are not stable as exports have not yet even begun but it does appear that the government's projection of low $4 NG prices for the next few years is simply not accurate. I expect to see $6 NG prices with 4 years. Too many countries need energy in a rapidly growing world. Once we can get it to them we will. It will help us to finally lower our deficit and create high paying US jobs for both blue collar and white collar workers.

  • Reply to

    Fact

    by neiljneil Sep 2, 2014 11:50 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Sep 9, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    bqdoo- It is projected that U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico will reach 3.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2018. This would be more than double U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico in 2013, which averaged 1.8 Bcf/d. Therefore it appears that you are correct in that Mexico will be a bigger driver in the near term. Approx 650 bcf going to over 1300 bcf annually in just 5 years is phenominal. I have yet to check the expected exports.

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