My plan is to buy in the near term. Either after what I expect will be a lousy earnings report and a downgrade or over the summer. If I must I will buy in the low 20 range if I miss these entry points. Buying in increments is a very good way to invest and I will do that if I miss my entry points. Long term this stock will fly but LNG exports have not yet even started so I feel that I have some time to work with. Maybe not. We will see.
A secondary offering appears to be a rational way to go if they can pull it off. The price of the offering is crucial for shareholders. The company probably would not get $16 a share, but you never know...
The administration now wants to replace the electric-vehicle credit with credits worth $3.3 billion over 10 years for “advanced technology vehicles.” Passenger vehicles, which would get $2.9 billion of the credits, qualify if they “operate primarily on an alternative to petroleum” and “there are few vehicles in operation in the United States using the same technology as such vehicle.” This raises the possibility of credits for natural-gas vehicles, the closest substitute for the gasoline-powered engine.
In all fairness it probably won't pass but you never know...
If the Saudies don't get their wells bombed then the fundamentals for oil are still bad. The fundamentals for NG may be worse in the short term but way better in the long term. I am on the sidelines now. The energy stocks have jumped up too much too fast lately. I won't short anything because it can be bought out tomorrow.
I still like UPL long term.
I agree. The rise in oil prices, when the time comes, will be slow due to the fact that the market will be inundated with new production. The only event that could trigger a material price hike would be if the Saudies have their oil fields attacked. This is not a remote possibility but still an unlikely one at this time.
The downward trend in oil prices does appear to be flattening out but could take another big step down over the summer based on the filling up of storage capacity. That is probably when I will buy back into UPL if I have not missed the boat by then. UPL is sensitive to oil prices even though it is mostly NG because of the lack of oil hedges. Talk about a smart management team acting like dummies...
Now if the Iranian proxies start blowing up Saudi oil wells while the Egyptians and Saudis start blowing up Iran and ISIS blows up the Iraqi wells while the US says firmly "stop doing that it isn't nice" while Russia invades Latvia and .. Oil could hit $85 this year. You never know. I do not recall a time when the volatility of oil was so extreme.
I agree. I may buy in at $1.70 or less if it goes there. Maybe many are relieved that bankruptcy won't be an issue, at least for a while..
Actually electric cars appear to be the more serious competitor for the moment. Tesla forcasts a 74% year over year sales increase. Hotels are adding electric charging stations to enhance their market share.
The world price for oil may no longer apply to the US market in the near term. By not allowing oil exports at a time when storage capacity is coming to its limits it is conceivable to have a separate US oil price, not unlike when dry NG sold for under $2 in the US but sold for $9 in Europe. The feasibilty of converting NG to a liquid state may rescue US NG but not its oil. History may repeat in a different form.
EIA projects the Brent crude oil price will average $59/bbl in 2015 with prices rising from an average of $56/bbl in the second quarter to an average of $67/bbl in the fourth quarter. The Brent crude oil price is projected to average $75/bbl in 2016.
This should mean a recovery for UPL in 2016, at least as far as oil profits.
With UPL's low cost NG production I am not overly concerned about the price of NG. Most expect it to be in the $3 range later in the year. I still se a hit coming in the short run but I am definately getting ready to jump in in the not too distant future.
Three auto makers have put out hydrogen cars this year in California. Toyota has the most interesting and viable of the three models. Of course they have a severe infrastructure problem but California has agree to fund the hydrogen expansion efforts. NG trucks have already done a rollout and do not appear to be threatened at this time. It would be most interesting if the auto industry ends up with hydrogen, not NG cars. No matter, it would be a long way off and not relevent to the UPL stock price for at least a few years...