53 cents a share is the estimate but I am hoping for 55 or 56 cents. To avoid a short attack little else matters. The current quarter estimates will need to be adjusted down due to the current price of NG. The tone of tomorrow's call will be a factor for its stock price in the near term.
Over 90 million ebita projected for next quarter with depressed ng prices, how is bankruptcy even a factor? There is enough for you shorts to work with without making stuff up.
Small cap stocks with little near term earnings are the easiest to manipulate. The largest gains and lossess can be had in these stocks. XCO may go further down but the upside over a a longer period is much higher than the downside (IMHO). I will be watching and hope to add in the not too distant future.
Sorry to hear this Medic. RBC just asked a specific question about what NG could get the company to increase the reduced cap ex going forward. There was no clear answer. RBC is no friend to XCO. I would not effectively "blow them off". Note that all this stuff is fluff. The company operations appear to be improving and eventually this will be reflected in the stock price. Maybe not having a CEO makes a difference. They usually are better politically which helps stock prices.
I agree wit your logic patient1 but I must admit that I am surprised to see the earnings miss. Most well run companies know how to play this game. Especially at a time when NG prices were way up for the quarter and we may not see $4.50 - $4.75 NG prices for a while. I can't be the only one who sees it this way. I still have a position here though not a huge one and do not plan to sell as I don't see XCO going below $4.50 and I do see it going past $12 in time so to me it is still a value play but I am dissappointed.
The market is unforgiving these days so in spite of much good news a 1 cent earnings miss is still a miss. The good news is that XCO is already crushed so I don't know how much lower it can go. The conference call may make a difference.
Oil will be a more material part of the revenue this year which helps but the material value for this company is still based in its NG assets. This is a good thing as I believe that the upside of NG exceeds the upside of oil from where we are today. I also believe that the downside of NG is less than the downside of oil.
You are missing a dropping NG commodity price, though not enough to justify this stock price (IMHO). The management has been stellar, listen to the next conference call later in the week yourself. If you believe as I do that NG prices will recover and end up in the $4 to $5 range over the next couple of years then this stock should be in the mid 30's to low 40's in relatively short order.
Could be another 85 - 90 injection as it was a cool week but earnings are also coming out which should be excellent. This conference call is critical and may help stabilize the stock price if not reverse the trend. If anyone has any other ideas about this Thursday's injection, the earnings or the expected stock reaction please post them.
UPL is holding up better than plays like SD and XCO because UPL is making almost $3 a share and unless you assume natural gas has no future there is a limit to how low it can be pushed down. Stocks with great promise but not much in earnings yet are easier to manipulate. Though I did not anticipate UPL to go this far down the plummet in NG pricing does give some validity to the current retreat. That said UPL can still make good money with NG at $3.80 and it is most likely that NG will bounce back shortly as it certainly appears to be oversold. I don't think UPL is going down much from here and suspect we will be up nicely in the not too distant future. We will see.
I did not dismiss you because your posting history is legit and I certainly hope your information turns out to be true but as you know no one can invest based on heresay. Regardless of your trader friend $4 in August is probable. $5 by November, well, sorry but I don't se it.
Based on these massive infusions it is possible that we will end up at the average storage amount for the pre-drawdown season. For this to happen we need for the cool summer to continue and the production jugernaut to keep this blazing pace. If this is our worst case than overall the NG situation is not too bad. I believe that the likelihood is that the summer will warm up a bit and we will end up lower than average pre-drawdown season. If I am right then NG should be bottoming out here and UPL could be back to 27 or more by October. Now if the summer really heats things could get interesting, but I am not depending on it.
Looks like 85 - 90 was on target. This is good, not great news. It should be good enough to give us a big boost as a dooms day scenario of another 100+ injection was avoided.
The downside should be limited here as much of the bad news is already out and factored in. If the temperature heads up we should be up 10% in a very short time. If it stays cool we could drop another 5%. I like the odds short term and love them long term.
If your observation is true then it would likely get us to a 95 - 100 infusion. I will observe the Eastern infusion on the next weekly report. It would not seem possible to get such large infusions throughout the summer from the East alone but since that last shocker of a report I don't know what to think.
Not true. We have a policy. For NG it is to delay the liquification plant build-outs as long as possible so we cannot help our European allies and keep them at Putins mercy. For oil it is to keep US companies from exporting oil This way we can keep US oil prices down regardless of world prices and insure a disincentive to drill more oil. This helps insure that certain areas of the world can not be influenced by US policies. The best part is that both NG and oil policies will keep down US jobs and help us to maintain a large US trade deficit.