I do not presently have SWN and only an insignificant position in XCO. I am making excellent money elsewhere in what I believe to be safer plays. You should try to post facts and legitimate opinions instead of always attacking people. Your posts have gotton boring. They are always the same.
I don't doubt that but the industry is in trouble, for now. Longer term these stock prices for CHK are excellent. They may get better. If so I hope to have funds to buy in.
As you heave been short here I am glad this stock is going up. All your postings about an $8 UPL stock price were wrong. You have no facts, no knowledge and no class.
It appears to me that with only $3 NG prices after all this cold that we may not see $4 NG this year. If so combined with no oil hedges I see a revisiting of low stock prices for UPL. My plan is to buy in between $10 - $12. I may miss this boat and I do see a longer term future but I still see a big short term hurdle in the way. If cool longer term heads prevail I will not get my buy in price. That's ok. I am very busy presently elsewhere. There are many ways to make or lose money in the market.
It is tough to time the market. I don't understand why UPL is up this high as NG is still very low in spite of a cold winter and oil is still very low and they have no hedges. I guess the longer term players are dominating and they see very deeply into the future.
Agreed. Not much trading. The numbers are excellent but the question will be can they continue to support the run up. The answer may come with upgades. We will see.
In the short run low NG prices and low oil prices ensure that UPL will have limited upside unless it is sold. In the long run low NG production costs and almost guaranteed higher oil prices will help this stock recover. I am not short or long at this time. I do believe that holding this stock will eventually get you your money back and more. The most surprising thing to me is that even with a cold winter the production juggernaut will not allow NG prices to move up. The exports will save this industry and to some degree our country. This is why Obama keeps trying to make it more difficult to get export plants approved. He has no clue about the real world. Nonetheless enough have already been approved to start some export action by year end. It could have been alot more exports but we will succeed in spite of him. Then of course he will try to take all the credit.
Facts change. Oil was well over $85. Ng was around $4. I don't like how UPL handled this crash from a management perspective. Yes they will eventually do well but I won't be a holder when the first 2015 quarterly report comes out with no oil hedges and oil in the 40 - 50 dolllar range. One does not just take a position and hold no matter what. There are reasons for my changed attitiude in the short run. Structually UPL has a low cost system of getting out its NG and ultimately will do well. Therefore I have not really changed my long term outlook but short term I have changed. I don't have the patience to wait. If UPL goes below $10 I will buy back in or if NG prices return to $4 and UPL is still under $15 I will go back in. Fortunately for UPL the winter has gone cold, otherwise we would be seeing UPL at $11 presently. But the winter is not over so I am watching and waiting. I may lose this one. That's ok. there are other ideas I have. but this one is too risky for me at the moment.
NG prices are well under $3 and the winter has been cold. No oil hedges and oil is "up to" the mid 50 range.
How can you justify 28% daily gains. The truth is UPL will be fortunate if the winter stays cold so they can maybe hit $16. But if the winter chill wanes $11 or under will be the probably price. Remember it is a long time until the end of the year for exports to begin and the summer will come first.. Again, if you hold you should win with UPL but from a short term perspective I believe there is more downward pressure than upward pressure.
Pathetic. The NG industry is in trouble along with the oil industry. Certain stars that hedged will survive and thrive. Others will barely make it but should end up ok in a longer run, like UPL. Still others will fail. I don't see UPL as failing. The question for me becomes when is the buy in. It could be $8 if oil and NG stay this low for 6 months. I doubt that will happen but you really don't know. Either way in a few years UPL will be well past $20 but few play the waiting game without looking these days. Too many variables can clould ones vision. If I owned UPL I would not sell because the turnaraund can come at any time and I would kick myself for missing it but as one without a vested interest I plan to wait and see what developes. there is no rush. Oil and NG is not going anywhere soon, though NG may start to climb if February is a cold as late January was in the Northeast.
your excellent information is always appreciated and it may be time to buy certain stocks but UPL is probably not one of them at this time. The lack of oil hedges in 2015 and the inadequate NG hedging will translate into bad quarterly eranings reports and possible downgrades. I don't have the stomach to see this volatility with a downward vent. I like the stock and it is oversold but I don't see the market being kind to UPL due to its terrible planning and ill timed oil purchase. I plan to buy in, just not now.
Note. I am hoping for energy to go down in the near term based on my current investments. Oil and Gas production is going up not down presently. There needs to be more pain to stop the total destruction of the industry. The Saudies have enough reserves to hold out for 6 - 10 months without causing an economic problem for themselves. It is in their best interests to continue to not support oil prices on many levels. In short, this bear market for energy is not over yet (IMHO).
The shorts are not covering at this time. I know, I tried to short yesterday but there were no shares available to short. The shorts are generally sharper than the longs for short term trading. I would not take a massive short position as a positive sign. My goal is now to get back in UPL as I can't ride it down but I hope to be ther to ride it up probably sometime over the summer. When those earning reports come in with no oil hedges it will be ugly. The stock will recover and prosper but not anytime soon (IMHO). If you can handle the rollar coaster ride then I would hold my position if I had one but be realistic as to when the stock will rise. One possible exception would be a super cold February and March. Then you could see UPL recover more quickly. It can happen but it is a long shot. Again, long term I don't think you can go wrong with UPL.
I tried to short this stock yesterday but was told that fidelity had no shares to short. Too bad. I would have made some money. I will have to wait and buy the long position after it hits bottom. Don't get me wtrong, this stock will be a winner, just not yet, in my opinion.
With NG and oil this low I see no reason for UPL go go up much further and several reasons it may retreat. I am watching too closely to buy, hold and look again next year. UPL is a great value here but if February is warm we can see UPL below $11. I am not willing to take that chance presently. On the other hand with a cold February we can see UPL at $16 and either way UPL will eventually go up. Some of my present plays are more money in the bank types as I lost most of my XCO profits when I recently sold most of my position and I am still recovering from that hit.