I did not dismiss you because your posting history is legit and I certainly hope your information turns out to be true but as you know no one can invest based on heresay. Regardless of your trader friend $4 in August is probable. $5 by November, well, sorry but I don't se it.
Based on these massive infusions it is possible that we will end up at the average storage amount for the pre-drawdown season. For this to happen we need for the cool summer to continue and the production jugernaut to keep this blazing pace. If this is our worst case than overall the NG situation is not too bad. I believe that the likelihood is that the summer will warm up a bit and we will end up lower than average pre-drawdown season. If I am right then NG should be bottoming out here and UPL could be back to 27 or more by October. Now if the summer really heats things could get interesting, but I am not depending on it.
Looks like 85 - 90 was on target. This is good, not great news. It should be good enough to give us a big boost as a dooms day scenario of another 100+ injection was avoided.
The downside should be limited here as much of the bad news is already out and factored in. If the temperature heads up we should be up 10% in a very short time. If it stays cool we could drop another 5%. I like the odds short term and love them long term.
If your observation is true then it would likely get us to a 95 - 100 infusion. I will observe the Eastern infusion on the next weekly report. It would not seem possible to get such large infusions throughout the summer from the East alone but since that last shocker of a report I don't know what to think.
Not true. We have a policy. For NG it is to delay the liquification plant build-outs as long as possible so we cannot help our European allies and keep them at Putins mercy. For oil it is to keep US companies from exporting oil This way we can keep US oil prices down regardless of world prices and insure a disincentive to drill more oil. This helps insure that certain areas of the world can not be influenced by US policies. The best part is that both NG and oil policies will keep down US jobs and help us to maintain a large US trade deficit.
I would guess an 80 - 85 BCF injection but I was way off in not anticipating a 107 injection last week. First, I hope we don't have another 100+ injection and if we must be in the 90's, please be in the low 90's. So maybe an 85 - 90 injection guess would be about right based on the production jugernaut currently going on.
We will see shortly..
Nothing is set in stone but it is probable that we will be back to the $4 range. There are several catalysts aside from next winter that should help. As far as the reasons for the CFO leaving, as long as it is not under suspiciuos circumstances it is not material enough to spend too much time speculating about. Unfortunately it is also probable that UPL will not recoup its stock price quickly and may even go down further. I see it this way. The downside can be another couple of bucks but the upside is much much greater. This is what is called a value play, though for the moment it is a value trap. I plan to stick this out.
Yawn...I give you credit blueblood. Most investors give up and many lose money. In the end I'll bet that you eventually make money here. However eventually can be a long, long time. I don't have the patience for this management team. Nonetheless I am betting you will win..Good luck. Who knows, eventually I may join you.
You need to be able to handle volativity if you invest in commodities. NG may go to $3.50 this summer or back to $4.20 but that is short term thinking. Next year we should be well into the $4 range but even then one needs to look over a few years instead of a few weeks. This is how the big boys do it. So yes it is a cool summer so far and it may continue but I managed to find some extra money today and bought more in the mid 24 range. I admit however that I hope we are real close to a bottom...
A few days ago the CFO left to join OXY which has a market cap approximately 20X as large as UPL. It is unlikely that he was pushed out or left due to scandalous behavior as OXY must have done extensive due diligence on Mr Smith. The likelihood was simply money and perhaps a more exciting experience. Mr Smith never did have a great deal of UPL stock, maybe he will get a better options plan with OXY. It does not take much with rapidly falling NG prices to add to the trepidation of shareholders and this event may have been an additional reason for the selloff. I hope so because if it was we should bounce back that much faster.
I am significantlly less optimistic than you about this summer, nonetheless UPL stock at these levels represents a compelling value play with limited downside unless NG goes back down to under $3. While this is a possibility it is not a likelyhood. Even if if does go down below $3 UPL still makes money and we just have to wait that much longer to see UPL at $40 or even $50 for that matter.
Watford has been a sharp cookie and usually a consrvative one. I trust his judgement. I don't see NG under $4 next year but even if it goes there UPL makes money on NG selling above $2.80 and they are hedging oil which has become a more material part of their sales. I like a leader with guts. His guts are influenced by many years of experience.
The bottom line is that this is a $25 stock earning almost $3 a share with a bright future to earn much more. The downside is limited and I can see a probable double in 3 years when the exports are ramped up. I would average down more but I am finally out of money.
I should in good conscience also let you know that most of my money is now in UPL and XCO has become a smaller position for me. I like XCO very much but I see UPL is a better value play at this time. Any company making almost $3 a share selling for under $25 has a less likey chance of being manipulated downward. Both stocks however have excellent upside. Therefore I am more likey to post on the UPL board, if at all, in the future.
Many seasoned investors over these last few years got skunked investing in NG. We all started to believe that our time had finally come this year. The last injection may be proof that we need to wait a bit more. With exports finally beginning next year and a continuation of an increase in NG demand we have a chance that next year will finally be our year. However if we continue to see 100+ injections this summer followed by a mild winter NG in the low $3 range is a high probability. Still, out a few years with exports increasing, NG trucks increasing and less coal fired plants we will eventually recover and make good money. The question will become can you hold your positions. If you can hold 3 years there is a 90% probability your will make tons of money. There is also a chance that the injections slow down somewhat and that next winter will be cool. I have no intention of losing money in NG and see no reason to let the current negative situation interfere with those plans. XCO will hit $6 and more. We all know that. It is true that with another few large injections we can go back below $5 but so what. I will make money on all my NG investments and so can you if you can do the hardest thing from here. Absolutely nothing...
UPL is the lowest cost producer. Therefore some other companies may need to slow down output or suffer losses. Hopefully this production jugernaut can be slowed down.
Can't argue with the facts. Apparently there is no mechanism other than super low prices to abate the production. This is most unfortunate. We will see if next week is also a disaster. Even an 86 injection for next week is very bad based on the 5 year averages.