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Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp. (SNTA) Message Board

neiljneil 255 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Oct 27, 2006
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  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jun 17, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    Hell if I know..We could continue the run, retreat, or pop up and down for a while. I know we are going past $6 and I expect it will be sooner than later, therefore I am sitting tight. Good luck to all longs.

  • Reply to

    Russia & Ukraine

    by artsbest Jun 16, 2014 6:57 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 17, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    One more comment. I am not actively following LNG so the basis for my opinion is limited. I would need to run some numbers and dive into LNG's operations to really know what LNG stock is worth.

  • Reply to

    Russia & Ukraine

    by artsbest Jun 16, 2014 6:57 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 17, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    I am aware of how difficult it is to get an approval and may have even make a post about it myself.. LNG got its head start due to this pathetically slow process however it is not the only player and there are limits to how high the stock should sell for. There are better plays out there at this time ((IMHO).

  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jun 16, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    That's when we go on the selling block (IMHO). Though I have to admit that with the turnaround in focus, discipline and leadership that has been demonstrated by SD over these last few quarters I am no longer sure that I want a sale for $12..I may want SD to continue in business so that I can make more..

  • Reply to

    I love the posts...

    by tradingadollar Jun 15, 2014 9:37 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 16, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    You really know this company. I loved your post most of all.

  • Reply to

    Russia & Ukraine

    by artsbest Jun 16, 2014 6:57 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 16, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    Due to our governments super slow approval process to get facilities built that can convert dry NG to LNG we are unprepared to assist at this time and a few years away form being in a better position at best. It takes about 4 years to build a plant once approved and most of the plants are still not approved. The best we can do is send coal. Doubtful that that will happen. It is too good an idea.

  • Reply to

    The run will continue

    by neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 12:39 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 13, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    In the case of XCO I believe it was possible to buy at the low. The $5 floor was established by the big boys. A few cents below that for a brief period was irrelevant. I would also argue that anywhere below $6 is also a low as a $1 difference is not material in the long run. The question will become where is the top. However for this company the answer may also be clear. When the company is sold. I am getting a dividend and the company is still growing so I can wait for the probable sale in a few years. To me this stock is the exception to the general rule.

  • Reply to

    The run will continue

    by neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 12:39 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 13, 2014 8:08 AM Flag

    I like your style patient1. The Haynesville shale play is located by the gulf where the ports are being built. There is no question in my mind about a double and more likely a triple or quadruple from these levels. The problem with trading is that you usually fall off the gravy train somewhere along the tracks. In addition you get a lot of stress as no one, not even me, can time the exact tops and bottoms. If you want to stay glued to a trading screen all day it may be possible that you can boost your return on this stock but there are quality of life issues, stress issues and inevitable mistakes that will be made by excess trading. One more note about XCO. You get a nice dividend while waiting and over the years we will likely see it increased.

  • neiljneil neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    Beware the use of phrases like "not a chance". The market is a series of probabilities and statistics and by definition almost anything is possible. Now aren't you going to feel silly if SD breaks through $7 tomorrow? Worse than that you lose all credibility. This is aside from the fact that I doubt your premise.

  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 2:39 PM Flag

    War is breaking out in the Middle East directly involving the #2 oil producer and will definitely reduce oil supply. Regardless of which side wins (Iran + Syria + Hezbollah + Iraq's democratically elected government vs Al Qaeda, Saudi Arabia and all militants bent on destroying the US). we lose. NG inventories will definitely, I repeat definitely, fall short of the normal amount before this coming winter. and one can be reasonably confident that at least one more shoe will fall somewhere around the world. This translates to high energy prices, more profits and higher stock prices for most exploration companies but especially XCO. XCO is highly leveraged and primed to benefit from the current situation.

  • Reply to

    The run will continue

    by neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 12:39 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    Months? I see $5.75 to $6 in the next 3 weeks.

  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    NG up 21 cents to $4.72 at the present moment.. Crude also up significantly. A great 2nd quarter earnings report will be here in less than 2 months. I don't see a pause button for this run up until at least $5.75 and fully expect to pass $6 by or shortly after that report. (IMHO).

  • Reply to

    Back in Black!

    by neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 9:49 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    107! Yes! Fry shorts, fry! This is only 15 BCF above the 5 year average. Not enough injected for the stored inventory to catch up by winter.

  • Reply to

    Back in Black!

    by neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 9:49 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    I am hoping for an injection of 110 or less. If we get additional good news today the short positions will fry.

  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    You can almost always guarantee that one mess or another will rise in the Middle East and bring up energy prices. Bad news for the world and not the way I like to make money, but I will still take it. The issue now is whether the Iraqi disintegration is a long term problem which will keep energy prices high. How many true solutions have you seen in the Middle East? I believe that question reveals the correct answer.

  • Reply to

    Energy way up today

    by neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 8:42 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    No argument on who is responsible. I just differ on the way we got out of this mess. It seems to me that our country has become too polarized and that the solution to most of our issues is somewhere between both political parties. Unfortunately blame (I am also guilty) gets tossed around but solid solutions are not happening. The recent Tea party victory over Eric Cantor is an ominous sign that the polarization of America will continue.

  • Reply to

    Energy way up today

    by neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 8:42 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    I will concede that there may have been no real solution here and that it may have been inevitable that the government would fall but I still maintain that we fought too hard and lost too much to give it all up immediately. A smaller support force for another year or 2 may have made a big difference here. I can see however that not all agree with me. So is the nature of politics.

  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 8:42 AM Flag

    Due to the super militant Al Qaeda styled nuts that are now up to occupying their third city in Iraq. This nightmare scenario was not only predictable, it was predicted by many generals in our army. One could argue whether we should have ever gone into Iraq but few with any grey matter could argue that the quick pull-out that left no support for the democratic government that we lost thousands of US lives helping to install was properly done. Another brilliant Obama foreign policy maneuver. Sorry for being political here but facts are facts.

  • Reply to

    Oaktree

    by neiljneil Jun 11, 2014 12:14 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 12, 2014 8:07 AM Flag

    Very interesting history and appreciated. I am sure that the conversion price was higher than the current price. The most important insider buy though, especially in conjunction with the other insiders, was the one they made this year. I do not recall in my history of following the market a multi- investor European style insider cash for stock infusion.

  • Reply to

    If we do get bought out

    by ni480 Jun 11, 2014 3:11 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jun 11, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    The answer may depend on the detail of the buyout and your current tax position. The likely buyout will be some cash and a lot of stock. To the extent you get stock it is likely, though this also depends, that the stock proceeds will not be a taxable event but rather a transfer of basis. The cash will likely be a return of capital. Therefore it is probable under this likely scenario that you should not sell for tax purposes. Regarding the economics of the event sans tax implications the differential will probably not be significant. Therefore this is one case that the tail should wag the dog and that the tax ramifications should take priority (IMHO).

SNTA
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