I am expecting between 66 - 76 for the injection of the week ending September 11, 2014. I was off by 1 BCF on the upper side of my projection for Sept. 4, 2014 when it came in at 79. I believe that I am less likely to be off for this projection. Overall I believe that my expectations are very close to what the street expects therefore if I am off by being too high or too low the street is usually off as well and UPL reacts accordingly. Note that this is all short term stuff and should not be taken too seriously. Good luck to all...except for the shorts..
This report, though not disasterous, is disappointing and unexpected. It explains why we took a hit today. Next week will probably be our last chance for a while to come in with a really good weekly report.
For the next 2 weeks the NG storage reports will be very good and excellent. After that the cold will return. By the second half of Sept. there will not be enough time left to get the NG inventories back to normal levels before winter. Today the market is reacting to part 2 of this topic. Soon the market will react to part 3.
If you have something of substance to say, be it long or short, state it. Otherwise I will be forced to put your dribble on ignore. I have little patience for anything but serious comments about the market, this industry or this company.
And NG prices have been responding. It was 89 degrees when I was in Maine a few days ago. Now if September becomes the August that went missing then we could see $4.25 NG in a month. We shall see...
The injection was a 75. On the lower end of my estimate. This is good news. Next week's report may be even better.
Although I have zero faith in the farmers almanac I have read that some experts believe that next winter is likely to be another cold one.
The weather has been warming up. For this Thursday I am expecting between a 74 and 84 injection. Things are looking better for NG pricing in the near term.
Battling Barrons, UBS, a terrific deal and an improved outlook leaves me to believe that the large short position will soon capitulate. I would not be surprised to see $28 by November, or even sooner.