Battling Barrons, UBS, a terrific deal and an improved outlook leaves me to believe that the large short position will soon capitulate. I would not be surprised to see $28 by November, or even sooner.
If you have a reason why this is "laughable" please let us know. Comments like "laughable" without substance are not worth reading. That is aside from the fact that I have generally been on target with my guestimates.
Due to the unusual cold I am expecting between an 78-88 injection this week. Oh where oh where did the summer go or where oh where can it be..?
Compared to most smaller NG companies they have done well. But I don't lconcentrate on the rear view when I drive anyway. The time for NG investors has come and we have alot of market valuation to catch up on. UPL will be a leader of this comeback. (IMHO).
This company is the best managed company I have ever owned. It is no accident that it is my largest position. Management can crush a stock's value or make you wealthy. Listening to the conference calls over the years, following the results of operations and understanding how management thinks is a key factor in stock investing. Go UPL!
It is possible to wallow between $3.80 and $4.00 for another month or two but the likelyhood is for another cold winter which will start at about 5 - 7% below the 5 year average. If you plan to wait for $22 to get in after the recent upgrades and with this summer coming to a close I suggest that you will likely have a very long wait unless there is a market crash. The only concern I have presently is if we will get 100+ infusions for the next few weeks due to the very cool weather. If we come in under 90 then I don't think you will see UPL at $22 again in this lifetime.
Ultra Petroleum (NYSE:UPL) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at UBS today. The stock closed yesterday at $23.11 on volume of 9.7 million shares, above average daily volume of 3.5 million. - UBS carries some weight!
I remember this exchange when I listened to the call. UPL management clearly believes that NG will be higher in 2015 then it is now. The truth is nobody knows for sure but I am comfortable with no 2015 hedges at these low NG prices. The odds favor a return to the mid $4 range this winter.
bq- This is not an exact science but based on how the weekly injections have been going so far we need to assume that we will come in significantly higher than the average 5 year injections. Some weeks will be 40 higher and some only 10 higher. If we average 25 higher times 15 weeks we get 375 plus the normal increase of 882 added to the current amount of 2,390 and we get 3,647. I anticipate a bit more than 25 in the next few weeks and less than 25 for the balance of the season which gets me to approximately 3.6 with an outside shot at 3.5 depending on the weather.
chic - I agree that $6-7 is not in the cards in the near term but $4-5 could easily shoot this stock up 50% or more. Most experts do believe that $4-5 in the near term is realistic. .
rainbow - I am much closer to your estimate than bqdoo and so is most of the energy world. If fact I hope we can end up between 3.4and 3.5 tcf because I consider that to be mildly agressive and bullish. Even a 3.6 however would be between 5 and 6% below normal levels before drawdown season. Therefore in spite of a lousy summer for NG we are not in dire shape. It is for this reason that I believe that UPL and many other NG stocks are oversold.
UPL is not in a vacuum. Many NG stocks are geting crushed. Management can't be concerned with short term market swings. Now if UPL was the only NG company going down then I would agree wih you.