The revised 2013 outlook has no effect on 2014 but it may hold BTU down for a month or 2. That's it, the retail investors and traders will be gone, the shorts will visit and it will all be over in 4 - 6 weeks. I will risk seeing BTU in the 17 range for the next couple of weeks. The march to 26+ will continue. I love the US market. So many "investors" have the attention span of a flea. It is relatively easy to make money here.
Note..If we see the 16 range I will not panic, actually I will celebrate. I will buy more..
I don't see $8 likely in the near and probably far term. They have an excellent balance sheet and an excellent product but management has been very disappointing on several levels. I think enough of the company's potential to keep it on my radar but how can you invest in a company that has lost material contracts that may not, however unlikely, replace them? It turns this into a high risk gamble with good odds. Management could change this with proper communication, but they don't. The CEO's only communication is to sell, sell, sell..
I think you are on target but even if you aren't, with $99+ crude and $4+ NG how much longer can this be held down? I bought even more today. This is not an if stock, it is a when..
I have never been so happy to be wrong. SD all the way! (or at least until it is sold). Looking forward to next weeks report already...
I like SDR at these levels..Already up to 30,000 shs. Based on NG prices I agree with your logic about SDR's stock price but PER is equally oversold.
I just added another 15,000 shs. Not waiting for a drop. More upside than downside from here. NG prices are up. Oil is stable. And keep in mind that PER never disappointed to begin with. If I am wrong my gains in NG related companies xco, btu chk dvn and SD will compensate.
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SD will move. They are unhedged and -285 is the best drawdown in the last 5 years and perhaps ever. And.. It's not even winter yet!
I think it was tax loss selling, at least for the last few days. This pressure will abate shortly as most who panicked have already sold.
I hope not but everything depends on the weather this year. The odds are in our favor as the 5 year averages should not be that hard to beat with a "normal" winter and this winter is starting out like a tiger. The projections I am reading show normal to below normal expected temperatures. Did anybody else catch the fact that the Europeans are #$%$ off with Obama for not letting the US export Natural Gas. Maybe they can help us stop this unfair treatment of US #$%$ us build export facilities NOW!
I doubt a 250 draw and that is above the expectations I am reading, but even a 200 draw would be excellent. The better news is next week tax loss selling will be almost over and a measly 112 drawdown is the average for next week 5 year average. We may end this year very close to $6 but almost definitely $6 by February unless we get a very unusual warming trend (IMHO).
Insider selling at these low prices, No insider ..I mean NO Insider, nada, zip, ziltch, no buying at these levels. No discussion of the progress of ANY new contracts to replace the material ones that were lost. And, of course, the way management mazimizes bad news and fluffs over good news in dealing with potential investors. This company has an excellent balance sheet and alot of potential but I sold out recently. I plan to keep an open eye on returning, however I won't invest in a company where the management won't invest or properly communicate unless I see a concrete reason.
They are interested in getting new contracts. No company can be run based on stock price. After they right the ship operationally the stock will go up. If not, then they should do a buy back.
I agree that this is strange. I bought more BTU today. We shall see in January.
I bought more just now. My position here is now quite substantial. I can't see much downside in the near term and I can see significant upside in the near term (IMHO).