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Occidental Petroleum Corporation Message Board

neiljneil 96 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 28, 2015 4:22 PM Member since: Oct 27, 2006
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  • Reply to

    capitulation

    by neiljneil Jul 26, 2015 9:33 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 28, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    You are correct and my posts are hypocritical. This is because there were 2 opposing philosophies involved. I do believe in UPL and did not expect to sell, but I also have certain percentage losses I will not accept. If I am behind 15% I am usually out. I did not anticipate the speed and severity of the price decline. This was a tough decision for me as I know I will be upset when UPL comes roaring back, but my loss limit rules trump what I think is the reality of the situation. The stock price is always clear not subject to judgement. I therefore must have missed something about UPL, the industry or the market.

  • Reply to

    capitulation

    by neiljneil Jul 26, 2015 9:33 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 27, 2015 10:55 PM Flag

    Not all energy related stocks are exploration companies dependent on the price of oil for their survival.

  • Reply to

    capitulation

    by neiljneil Jul 26, 2015 9:33 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 27, 2015 10:53 PM Flag

    The truth is I don't know when the turnaround will begin but I suspect that UPL will not be one of the first to change direction. It is oversold but the high debt load, along with poor hedging, and a poorly timed oil purchase have made this stock less attractive. I still believe it will soar eventually and may reenter should the price drop below $6, depending on factors at that time.

  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jul 26, 2015 9:33 AM Flag

    Consistent with my market strategy of not averaging down more than once and never risking an excessive loss I was forced to sell UPL in the low $8 range. I believe it will come roaring back in short order probably starting this Monday but I am a creature of statistics and probabilities and follow the basic rules accordingly. I sold SD in the $4 range based on these rules, XCO at $1.70 and MHR in the low $1.40 range. Had I not done so I would be behind this year instead of up a few percent. I am still investing in energy however. I shifted to stocks that sold off for almost no reason except that they were connected to energy. I will be disappointed when stocks like UPL come roaring back but I would rather make an almost guaranteed 15% then risk any further losses. I may also buy back in at a future date.

  • Reply to

    The bear market for energy ends today!

    by neiljneil Jul 23, 2015 3:50 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 24, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    I undrestimated the power of the market manipulators. I am at break even so far this year because I pulled out my profits when I had them and effectively left less money in the market to later get hammered. I tried trading today but even this was impossible. I lost on UPL and others by not anticipating how low they can be pushed down even at these levels.
    It was a very bad day. On the brighter side the shorts have stayed to long on the farm. Turnaround must be around the corner. Energy stocks are trading at or near there all time lows. It can't continue, can it?

  • Reply to

    The bear market for energy ends today!

    by neiljneil Jul 23, 2015 3:50 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 24, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    Panic will cause many irrational decisions. There are wealthy investors who got burned in energy twice and now want nothing to do with the sector under any circumstances. Equal to the value of a company is the peception of the industry by investors. It is not very good these days. I don't know how low we can get as I believed. based on value. that the energy sector just could not go any lower. I was wrong about the sector and apparently wrong about UPL. My gains for the year have been almost wiped out. At least I have no margin and am not forced to do anything.

  • Reply to

    The bear market for energy ends today!

    by neiljneil Jul 23, 2015 3:50 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 24, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    I guess Juan Ton and his friends want to teach me a lesson. You can't beat the big hedge funds. There is no other reasonable reason that this stock is soo far down today. OK. I get it. Enjoy my quote about the bear market ending yesterday.

  • Reply to

    The bear market for energy ends today!

    by neiljneil Jul 23, 2015 3:50 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 24, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    I bought this morning anticipating the shorts would knock down prices before the run up.

  • Reply to

    Our biggest difference Neil

    by jeffffffffffrey Jul 22, 2015 2:01 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 23, 2015 3:55 PM Flag

    Then how am I ahead this year by almost 15%? UPL is not my only stock. It is however one that I find to be most interesting. I was ahead almost 50% this year before the bear market in energy hit. I was forced out of several energy positions over the last 8 months based on my strategy of loss limitation. UPL is an exception to my rule. I don't see much downside left. You can quote me on that if I am wrong.

  • July 23, 2015. Mark those words. The probability of any further downside is remote (IMHO).
    I know many shorts will love to quote me on this if I am wrong.

  • Reply to

    Our biggest difference Neil

    by jeffffffffffrey Jul 22, 2015 2:01 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 22, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    Just curious. Who would pay me to post on these boards and why? Not that it matters much to me about your conspiracy theory. I just don't get the logic. The hedge funds must be short based on the stock price, which may explain Juan Ton and Jeffff. But me getting paid? I do however appreciate your complement. as I must be doing a good job to get your ire.

  • Reply to

    Our biggest difference Neil

    by jeffffffffffrey Jul 22, 2015 2:01 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 22, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Juan Ton should pay you more. You do bring up valid points however. Due to fire sales it is possible that some better financed producers do have a benefit with recently purchased assets. But UPL has years of experience and is already producing at super low costs which gives it a cost advantage over almost any NG producer. The poor hedging program was a material management mistake. No excuses there. But higher NG prices over the next 2 years should repair most of this damage. Don't get me wrong, I don't know anything for sure, except maybe one thing. I don't panic and I am patient, most of the time, when I need to be.

  • Reply to

    Funny

    by neiljneil Jul 21, 2015 10:52 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 22, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    You posted that you covered somewhere above $16 a share. Either way this is not a contest between us. I can't even say that UPL is the best of the breed. I do believe it to be way oversold. Jeffffrey needs more help on his short pumps. Please do a better job. Try stating some facts once in a while..

  • Reply to

    Funny

    by neiljneil Jul 21, 2015 10:52 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 22, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    "There is almost no possibility of significantly higher prices within the next few years" - How can anyone take you seriously? A for effort but a failing grade on the short pump.

  • I don't use margin personally, leaned that lesson the hard way. Some are learning right now. But current carry costs combined with margin calls may send us lower. For those longs with no margin, there is nothing to do. That is tougher than you think. I even considered opening up some margin to buy more stock, but that would limit my patiience and may cause me to do something stupid, like sell at these levels. So back I go to sitting on my behind and doing nothing..Damn this is hard..

  • Reply to

    #$%$ does Credit Suisse know?

    by patentcolo Jul 22, 2015 8:09 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 22, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    The shorts own the playing field for the moment. No real logic applies to current stock prices in many small and mid-cap companies. I figure the dowside to be in the $7 range but I have been wrong on some of my calls. Never thought I'd see the current stock prices in energy.

  • Reply to

    My understanding is UPL has B/e cost of 2.80 mcf

    by mrs_schit Jul 22, 2015 12:45 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 22, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    It was $2.80 but may be less now. Unfortunately the oil property purchase is not working out so well. Still at these unreal stock price levels something seems wrong here. Sometimes the hardest thing to do in the market is nothing. For the moment, that's my plan.

  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jul 21, 2015 10:52 PM Flag

    When NG was lower many were clamoring to buy more at $14 a share. It is true the shorts own this stock presently. This can last for months. But it can't last forever. I am hoping to see $8 again. Come on shorts! Pump it down. $5 is coming...No...Bankruptcy is coming! Much better.

  • Reply to

    I am worried for you now, It is $5 at max

    by listen_jockers Jul 19, 2015 12:10 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 21, 2015 8:17 PM Flag

    I sleep like a baby. Not at all worried.

  • Reply to

    Stomach troubles..

    by neiljneil Jul 20, 2015 2:19 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 20, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    Yes, but the shorts love us.

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