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Occidental Petroleum Corporation Message Board

neiljneil 220 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Oct 27, 2006
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  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jul 16, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    All day today but....The stock can jump up 20% in a day when they finish. Don't know if they will finish this month's dumping today or tomorrow, but they will finish (IMHO).

  • Reply to

    2016 was the target..under $3 cost OK

    by ronaldweisenheimer Jul 16, 2015 3:38 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 16, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    dw is smart and is correct. I still think that when relational finishes it's sell-off the asset base of the company will proove its value to be well above $2.

  • Reply to

    2016 was the target..under $3 cost OK

    by ronaldweisenheimer Jul 16, 2015 3:38 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 16, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    A recurrence of throat cancer has Relational selling off its material stake this year, however it is likely to buy it all back with new management next year. Approximately 8.5 million shares left to sell. With an average 5 million shares traded per day the market can and will absorb the balance of the selling.

  • Reply to

    good morning

    by heilcoil Jul 15, 2015 8:00 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 15, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    It is not usually wise to predict the movement of any stock on any given day..But it's OK to play. Unfortunately for the longs, you were a bit off..

  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jul 15, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    MHR can't get it's price for it's assets and the news leaked. MHR can get it's price for it's assets but there is a need to flush out the small fish, MHR is being toyed with by hedge funds, MHR ...Anything is possible but...It is likely that an asset sale will be announced relatively soon which should move the stock price up materially. Unfortunately it could happen in months. not days or weeks if at all. Wish I knew what is really going on..

  • Is that it can rebound quickly. Particularly when it crashed for almost no reason. The US domestic NG market has little relationship with Greece, Iran or China. Yet NG stocks all plunged recently anyway. I can't tell you if UPL will go up or down over the next month but I can say that it appears to be way way oversold based on news that, for the most part, has little to do with the future success of this company. Yes it does have oil, but this is not its main product. NG is the key to its success and few, if any, have operating costs as low as UPL.
    Note I also bought into an oil company at the same time I bought back UPL. Oil may not have as bright a future as NG but prices at these levels won't last either (IMHO).

  • The stock is trending down and may go lower but when NG goes back up to $4 per MCF, which is expected to happen within 2 years, this stock should go up materially. Didn't load the boat this time so I am good to average down one time if needed. Listen..this company is one of the most efficient NG drillers in the country. Yes the messed getting into oil and having no material hedges in place but that is why the stock is so cheap right now. no one knows except the manipulators where the stock is going short term bu I still see a realistic potential to double from this level in 2 years. I am almost hoping for a sub $10 price so I can buy more.

  • Reply to

    Looking for a re-entry point..

    by neiljneil Jul 2, 2015 1:35 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 10, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    I found my re-entry point today. XCO is not going under soon and has time to come up with a survival plan,There are smart people invested in the company. We shall see what happens.

  • Reply to

    My take...

    by kntryhick Jul 8, 2015 4:19 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 9, 2015 8:58 PM Flag

    They can make money at $2.70. Good management is in question as they had few hedges in place when the prices collapsed. They don't make money in oil at these levels.

  • Reply to

    tough time figuring this out

    by jeffffffffffrey Jul 9, 2015 12:27 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 9, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    UPL has reached oversold territory like many of its peers. However the market belongs to the manipulators now. Therefore it will come up only when they want it too. There is even an assigned manipulator on these boards. I now believe that the poster Juan Ton is a paid basher. I sold out my position for a small loss in the low $12 range and plan a re-entry between $9 and $10. The only way to beat these guys is with patience, but you also must never risk the main portion of your principal. I am not willing to risk another entry above $10 based on my experience with this investment. Otherwise I would be stocking up at these levels. With hindsight I bought too much at $12.56 and should have taken a smaller position.

  • neiljneil neiljneil Jul 9, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    This gives us time to properly negotiate without a fire sale. It is a very significant development which has yet to be reflected in the market price. MHR should have traded in the $1.80 to $1.90 range just on that news. When the big deal actually gets done we should be past $2.25. And then if you can handle the extreme volatility, expect $3 by next year (IMHO).

  • Reply to

    "check"

    by jmj160 Jul 8, 2015 8:23 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 8, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    I rode up and made a tidy profit and sold at $2. I did buy back a bit early with a an average cost in the low $1.70 range but am still ahead presently. This time I don't think I will sell so fast as I expect the real news, once it comes out ,will permanently change the fortunes for this investment. I will probably look for a 40% or better return before selling any portion of this position. I expect this can happen within 6 months (IMHO).

  • Reply to

    July 10th

    by ryefour Jul 7, 2015 7:14 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 7, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    Or both or neither. We definitely should know very shortly. Whatever it is it needs to wrap up this week.

  • Reply to

    Marcellus Production Outlook

    by rainbow3100 Jul 2, 2015 4:16 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 7, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    I also have MHR. It is a significant position for me. I consider it to be a relatively safe investment as the upcoming debt pay down should let the company tread water for at least 2 years and give enough time for NG prices to go up significantly. I took a hit on SD but sold in the $4 range. If any stock drops too much I sell. I try to not fall in love with any position. I made my most money in oil stocks this year. I am still up 20% overall for 2015. It is important to run your winners and have limited patience with your losers. Unfortunately I don't see good odds on SD but the new financial arrangement will give it at least another year or more for prices to rebound. It is a longshot. Not for me, but it does have a chance.

  • Reply to

    LNG export

    by atmotsi34 Jul 7, 2015 4:17 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 7, 2015 5:08 AM Flag

    MHR will be a supplier to companies that have built a facility to convert dry NG to LNG.

  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jul 6, 2015 8:25 PM Flag

    Not so unexpectedly insider activity is picking up across the board. UPL may go down tomorrow and the day after but it appears that the market is getting ready for an upturn. I am going to make a call...UPL will not go below $9 and it will rebound sharply over the next 2 years. Of course if I really knew anything for sure I would be a lot more wealthy than I am. By the way, my reasoning has 99% to do with the exporting of LNG which is just about to begin.

  • neiljneil neiljneil Jul 6, 2015 8:14 PM Flag

    The key is cash flow after the sale. MHR should easily tread water with this cash infusion until NG prices improve over the next 2 years. This stock really could double over that time (IMHO).

  • Reply to

    oil is getting destroyed

    by neiljneil Jul 6, 2015 1:31 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 6, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    True UPL has oil but it is not the main event for them. These days that doesn't seem to matter. A panic in energy often does not distinguish between the energy activities of the stocks. I shifted my energy investments recently into some interesting plays. The key is to buy a company that will absolutely survive this downturn and will rebound in spades. No matter how remote the possibility the market does not like the chance of a bankruptcy. Hugh debt is a big problem for any company including UPL.

  • You want to be mostly in US NG at this time vs oil, assuming you want to be in energy. UPL will make money with NG at these levels. Re the stock price, who knows where it will go next. Probably the next shoe to drop after Greece is Iran. We could know tomorrow. How's your stomach holding up?

  • Reply to

    holding up pretty

    by heilcoil Jul 6, 2015 12:26 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jul 6, 2015 12:30 PM Flag

    News released this morning. Smart shareholder friendly tactic.

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