Actually 105 is quite good compared to recent injections. It is only 19 MCF above the 5 year average for this week. This is better than any weekly injection comparison to the prior 5 year average for all the weeks in September. We may see a turnaround again today for the stock price.
I can't claim to be knowledgeable about Encana but from your description I see a shareholder lawsuit which usually is not a good sign and more oily which also may not be so good. NG prices will almost definitely rise over the next few years in the US from exports but if our government continues to not permit oil exports US oil prices will suffer over the next few years. Otherwise from the numbers Encana does look like a value play but I would not sell UPL for it.
I have lost confidence in management and no longer have a significant position here but I don't see $3 a share. There would need to be a severe market correction, a worldwide recession and a very warm winter. All of which are possible but not likely.
Truth is a buyout is not likely in the near term.. I expect the insiders to want at least $8 a sh. In 2 years we can be in a whole new ballgame. The first year of exports will make a difference but the second year will be exponentially better as multiple export facilities come online. As long as I get my divvy I have all the patience in the world.
Less than one year ago 420,000,000 insider shares were bought for $5 a share against 20,000.000 sold. I like the conservative plan of getting cash and hedging just in case we have a warm winter. This is the last winter before exports begin. I made good money taking this from the low $5 range to the upper $5 range this year. I expect to make good money again. This company is even a buyout candidate though that is not, and never should be, the main reason for an investment.
All this small talk is not worth any more postings. The bottom line is the stock price and what makes it move. I will say this however. There is a difference between a trader and an investor and the those in between. They all have a different perspective. That can make both parties correct even though they have a different answer.
Took a second bite today at 2,53. This bite was a larger than my last bite. I don't know where the bottom is but when the exports start XCO is well positioned geographically to benefit. If the stock goes down more I will buy more. In the meantime I will collect my dividend.
Since it appears that a cold winter is vital to the NG industry this year it would be helpful to know what to expect. I have read different reports. Some say it will be a cold winter and others saying the opposite. Does anyone on this board have a source that they believe to be reliable and if so what do they see ahead?
If you are going to quote me do it correctly. I said "You may and you may not. I am not a seer. But I would not let one point stop me from buying a stock that has tremendous potential. Why take that chance?" I stand by my quote.,
Can't argue with the facts. A negative market particularly in the energy space, massive NG supply and a cool summer have teamed up to hurt the NG companies. The only good note may be IF we have a cold winter it should help NG prices regardless of oil prices. If not we have a tough road ahead for the next year.
juan ton never adds anything of substance to this board except for personal slanderous remarks which is why I have used report abuse for him. I no longer read his posts because they are valueless. Ignore is a good option.
Based on the price action in the NG market today with NG going up while crude is tanking I tend to agree with you. At the least low oil prices will hurt UPL less than other more oily producers and it may even help. But we may need to see sustained low $80 oil, which is possible. The Saudi's can severly hurt our oil industry in a price war and they know it. I just hope they don't go there even if it would ultimately help UPL.
Most of UPL's value is based on its NG reserves. The massive oil drilling boom is throwing off too much NG. UPL will still make money with $85 oil but maybe it will damper some of this supply juggernaught. NG will still be a cheaper option than oil even at $85. Any thoughts on this out there?
I have done "report abuse" for Juan ton" and suggest that others do the same.
Manipulation at its finest. That statement about needing $5-6 is is as crooked as a $3 bill. Few industry experts expect $6 NG in the near term. Most expect the high $4 range though there is great variability in these numbers. Until exporting gets into gear we are heavily dependent on the weather.
I am a big player but I may not be usual. Presently I have under 50,000 shs of XCO. My main position in the NG space is UPL. It is harder to manipulate a stock that will make over $3 a share next year. However XCO has been toyed with to a point of insanity. I am having trouble determining whether I should go for a more sure thing with almost no downside left or a stock that has been manipulated into insanity and will likely double within 2 years and carries a significant dividend.