Yawn...I give you credit blueblood. Most investors give up and many lose money. In the end I'll bet that you eventually make money here. However eventually can be a long, long time. I don't have the patience for this management team. Nonetheless I am betting you will win..Good luck. Who knows, eventually I may join you.
You need to be able to handle volativity if you invest in commodities. NG may go to $3.50 this summer or back to $4.20 but that is short term thinking. Next year we should be well into the $4 range but even then one needs to look over a few years instead of a few weeks. This is how the big boys do it. So yes it is a cool summer so far and it may continue but I managed to find some extra money today and bought more in the mid 24 range. I admit however that I hope we are real close to a bottom...
A few days ago the CFO left to join OXY which has a market cap approximately 20X as large as UPL. It is unlikely that he was pushed out or left due to scandalous behavior as OXY must have done extensive due diligence on Mr Smith. The likelihood was simply money and perhaps a more exciting experience. Mr Smith never did have a great deal of UPL stock, maybe he will get a better options plan with OXY. It does not take much with rapidly falling NG prices to add to the trepidation of shareholders and this event may have been an additional reason for the selloff. I hope so because if it was we should bounce back that much faster.
I am significantlly less optimistic than you about this summer, nonetheless UPL stock at these levels represents a compelling value play with limited downside unless NG goes back down to under $3. While this is a possibility it is not a likelyhood. Even if if does go down below $3 UPL still makes money and we just have to wait that much longer to see UPL at $40 or even $50 for that matter.
Watford has been a sharp cookie and usually a consrvative one. I trust his judgement. I don't see NG under $4 next year but even if it goes there UPL makes money on NG selling above $2.80 and they are hedging oil which has become a more material part of their sales. I like a leader with guts. His guts are influenced by many years of experience.
The bottom line is that this is a $25 stock earning almost $3 a share with a bright future to earn much more. The downside is limited and I can see a probable double in 3 years when the exports are ramped up. I would average down more but I am finally out of money.
I should in good conscience also let you know that most of my money is now in UPL and XCO has become a smaller position for me. I like XCO very much but I see UPL is a better value play at this time. Any company making almost $3 a share selling for under $25 has a less likey chance of being manipulated downward. Both stocks however have excellent upside. Therefore I am more likey to post on the UPL board, if at all, in the future.
Many seasoned investors over these last few years got skunked investing in NG. We all started to believe that our time had finally come this year. The last injection may be proof that we need to wait a bit more. With exports finally beginning next year and a continuation of an increase in NG demand we have a chance that next year will finally be our year. However if we continue to see 100+ injections this summer followed by a mild winter NG in the low $3 range is a high probability. Still, out a few years with exports increasing, NG trucks increasing and less coal fired plants we will eventually recover and make good money. The question will become can you hold your positions. If you can hold 3 years there is a 90% probability your will make tons of money. There is also a chance that the injections slow down somewhat and that next winter will be cool. I have no intention of losing money in NG and see no reason to let the current negative situation interfere with those plans. XCO will hit $6 and more. We all know that. It is true that with another few large injections we can go back below $5 but so what. I will make money on all my NG investments and so can you if you can do the hardest thing from here. Absolutely nothing...
UPL is the lowest cost producer. Therefore some other companies may need to slow down output or suffer losses. Hopefully this production jugernaut can be slowed down.
Can't argue with the facts. Apparently there is no mechanism other than super low prices to abate the production. This is most unfortunate. We will see if next week is also a disaster. Even an 86 injection for next week is very bad based on the 5 year averages.
It is still most likely that we will start next draw-down season with a lower than normal inventory. Therefore the intensity of the current sell-off should slow down..We will see.
Production is breaking records while the summer is not particularly hot. I did not anticipate that the record production would not only continue, but accelerate. I am not alone, many were taked by surprise at these numbers.
sold many positions, including much of XCO. Buying UPL in the mid 25 range. NG is going through a tough period but not as bad as 2012. With exporting starting next year I don't think we will drop much below $4 and I see a bounce back, though I can't be sure when..
In spite of my call for an 86 infusion today I am still hoping for a lower amount. It feels like a #$%$ game each week. Come on 82. Go 82. If if comes in I win my horserace and mucho dinero. But an 86 should not sink any NG stocks. We will see very shortly...
I picked up more XCO at the end of the trading day at $5.24. Unless tomorrow's injection is 90+ we should have a nice bounce. I sold much of my XCO position to buy more UPL when it went below $27. At the time I sold with regret but it seems as I just got lucky. UPL stabilized while XCO fell. Truth is UPL below $27 is money in the bank. They are making almost $3 a share and are still rapidly growing. XCO will have its moment as well but there is much less stability because it cannot make lots of money for a while. Long term I see XCO as a triple but I can not ignore its volativity and have decided to trade some and hold some.
First, no they don't need to say anything. Second if you can you should be buying now as I am. Third, one should not take the Lords name in vain..