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Occidental Petroleum Corporation Message Board

neiljneil 382 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 12, 2016 7:21 PM Member since: Oct 27, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Something tells me

    by gilbertohanian Jan 26, 2016 10:06 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 11:21 PM Flag

    One I know reduced the target from $12 to $6 but still kept a buy rating, however I agree with your thoughts about trying to slow up the train so they could get in or get more shares. Doubtful they are shorting as they continued their buy rating. No reason was given for the reduced target. Probably because they couldn't come up with one.

  • Reply to

    And the lemmings die..

    by neiljneil Jan 25, 2016 12:37 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 9:23 PM Flag

    You are a low life impostor. Don't you have any original ideas? I guess we already know that answer. Amigo is with an i not an L. Not that its worth my time but yes, the lemmings probably sold yesterday after panic set in but I have consistently believed that UPL had a reasonable chance of recovery. I still do. I just think there are safer bets out there presently. I won't take the chance of missing this energy rebound.

  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 8:59 PM Flag

    So let me understand this. Iran plans to put out another million barrels a day of oil, yes? But they need many millions of foreign capital to invest in Iran to do so. So with safe American oil assets selling for pennies on the dollar due to financial duress these foreign monies will chose to invest big dollars in a shaky government that may even have sanctions reinstated. Hmm..Yes, of course. I get that. I doubt that Iran will be able to put out even 400,000 additional barrels of oil by year end. Now we will be adding well over a million barrels a day of demand, perhaps 1.5 million due to low oil prices, and reducing production by well over 2 million barrels a day by year end. Yep, its a regular disaster. Oil will hit $10 in no time. Damn that Iran!

  • Reply to

    We are getting noticed..

    by neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 10:40 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 4:28 PM Flag

    Actually the volume tapered off so apparently we are still under the radar. We probably won't be noticed until after the earnings come out and maybe not even then. By the time most of the retail investors find us we will probably be trading past $12 a share. I may be starting to cull my position at that time unless it is still only mid 2016...

  • Reply to

    Gilbert

    by neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 1:26 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 2:37 PM Flag

    Sandrige Energy died when it lost its leader, As corrupt as Tom Ward was believed to be he has a wonderful hedging strategy. I was unaware that the new management let the hedges run out. They also bought back their own stock at $4+ instead of properly investing these funds during hard economic times. I sold when they did the buyback. I thought it was moronic. I did lose some money there but fortunately not too much.

  • Reply to

    Gilbert

    by neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 1:26 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 2:32 PM Flag

    My understanding is that some wells have been shut in because it costs more to get the oil out and transport it than they can make selling it.

  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 1:26 PM Flag

    Looks like an excellent call on LINE.

  • Reply to

    52 Week Lows Coming Soon

    by juan_ton_amigo Jan 26, 2016 5:13 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 1:01 PM Flag

    You are an imposter. I now know it is you Chico. It was you all along. You tricked me on this post until I looked carefully.

  • This can only be a good thing. The volume is picking up. The more that EPE is understood, the more buyers there will be. I can't wait until the earnings come out.

  • Reply to

    OT; HK and UPL

    by nelljneil Jan 25, 2016 4:49 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 9:42 AM Flag

    Note -The imposter has never admitted who they are and it is only my guess as to their various aliases.

  • Reply to

    52 Week Lows Coming Soon

    by juan_ton_amigo Jan 26, 2016 5:13 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 9:19 AM Flag

    Not sure I agree with you on this call, but based on your history I would not contest you. My position here is too insignificant as a percent of my investments to be concerned about and I may move my posts to the EPE board where I do have a material position.

  • Reply to

    Thee GasBag

    by juan_ton_amigo Jan 26, 2016 5:15 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 9:15 AM Flag

    Chicosan followed me to the EPE board. It's a shame that morons like him are allowed to post but they never have anything to say.

  • Reply to

    OT; HK and UPL

    by nelljneil Jan 25, 2016 4:49 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 9:12 AM Flag

    This poster is an imposter, not me, who uses vaious names. Note the third letter is an L not an I. He posts under Chicosan, natescottross and othe raliases. He followed me from the UPL board.

  • neiljneil neiljneil Jan 26, 2016 4:25 AM Flag

    $65 right. Oil prices have little effect on UPL operational income at this time as the oil portion of their operations is not material. UPL will live or die based on NG prices. US natural gas prices are not directly tied to international oil prices. There is an indirect relation but these 2 commodities can have a divergent pricing. There used to be a 6:1 relation between oil and NG prices but over the years the direct relationship has waned, If December was frigid instead of tepid and the rest of the winter in the US continued to be frigid then the fact that oil prices are in the toilet would not stop US NG prices from making a comeback. This divergence will change over the next few years as we start to export LNG.

  • Reply to

    We need oil to stay in the $20's

    by neiljneil Jan 21, 2016 10:59 AM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 25, 2016 4:32 PM Flag

    They say be careful what you wish for, but I am elated to get oil back under $30. I suspect the we will learn in the conference call that EPE has started to monetize some of its hedges. I doubt they will ever be worth much more than they are worth now and they will probably soon be worth a great deal less. That's a billion dollar asset waiting to be collected. Now while the competition is coming out with poor earnings reports and dire forecasts with oil at these levels wait till they see that almost 100% of the oil sold by EPE last quarter was for over $90 a barrel. Wait till they see $100,000,000 of positive cash flow with positive cash flow projected even with $30 oil. Wait till they see that the NG drilling costs rival firms like UPL but without the severe financial problems they have. If energy prices stay this low both oil and NG competitors will drop out. Yes if oil stays at $30 for the next 18 months EPE will be in big trouble too but that is after 85% of US driller have been bankrupted. Ain't gonna happen. At least I hope not...

  • Reply to

    And the lemmings die..

    by neiljneil Jan 25, 2016 12:37 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 25, 2016 1:59 PM Flag

    I agree that either of those 2 companies has been run much better than UPL. However my energy space is almost 97% in EPE energy. I suspect that after the earnings come out you will see why. Amount other tidbits, it sold its oil for over $90 a barrel last quarter. Check the EPE board to see my posts there.

  • Reply to

    And the lemmings die..

    by neiljneil Jan 25, 2016 12:37 PM
    neiljneil neiljneil Jan 25, 2016 12:39 PM Flag

    Note this has nothing to do with how UPL ultimately ends up.

  • neiljneil by neiljneil Jan 25, 2016 12:37 PM Flag

    Those who jumped in because UPL zoomed up 100% on no news are getting killed quickly. This was predictable, which is why I was tempted to go short at $2.50, but the truth is shorting is not my game. I suspect many will sell now or wait until UPL drops a bit further.

  • neiljneil neiljneil Jan 24, 2016 1:48 PM Flag

    Actually the break even for the Saudi's is currently about $65, but it is much higher for most of the other OPEC countries. And one needs to assume that break even is not where the Saudi's want oil to be. My estimate of future oil is probably in the $70 - $80 range. To get there the Saudi's may not let up the pressure for a while and I fully expect them to continue to pump 11 million barrels a day. I hope they will keep it up because I want oil to stay low a while longer. I have invested accordingly. But oil prices will have little impact on UPL. NG prices have already hit bottom and they are on the road back. Whether or not it is too little too late to help UPL we have yet to see.

  • neiljneil neiljneil Jan 24, 2016 1:37 PM Flag

    Oh no! Oil is going down to $15! We better sell! UPL is not even an oil stock. Why are you posting here?

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