Thank you. It is pretty pathetic. No oil hedging for 2015 and it appears that they started hedging too late to get good prices for the 2nd 3rd and 4th quarters. That is why the price of UPL is soo low. This too will pass.
According to their last presentation they did hedge 40% of their NG at over $4 but the details are fuzzy. I am not clear how much of the entire year's production was hedged. I remember that originally there was no plan to hedge significantly. I am not deeply involved in this stock so I lost track of what they are up to. If any posters have a good handle on their hedging program please post the information and the source.
Of young children about sweets was as follows: Children were offered one cookie immediately or 2 cookies if they could wait to eat for a few minutes. Most of the children ate the immediate cookie. Some waited and got 2 cookies. In later life it was found that the children who waited and got 2 cookies were much more financially and socially successsful. We are in very bad times for energy. My plan is to wait. I want 2 cookies.
Come on you can do better than that. Why not use "they will be bankrupt in 2 months!" "get out now!" I am a CPA and I can read financials. I don't see a problem. Unless of course NG stays below $3 for well over a year, which I deem to be highly unlikely.
I sold off some other positions to buy this morning when XCO dipped to $2.30 and now I am in a position to sit and wait. I wish I could buy more. I may consider using some margin, which I almost never use, if XCO takes another dip. After all with NG at $3.07 and oil in the 50 range it is a great time to be a buyer in energy.
And you accuse me of being a liar. I have not recommended UPL for a month. I still don't. But this attack will end and I hope you get what you deserve when it does. I do not advise any sells at these levels. Panic selling is rarely the way to go.
I agree. Unfortunately the warm weather has hurt current NG pricing and there has not yet been enough time for the reduction in new drilling to have an effect. By mid 2015 we will see the effect of less drilling and with just a wee bit of cooler weather we could be back at $4+ NG. I believe we will see at least $75 oil and $3.90 NG next yeat with higher prices in 2016. XCO is well prepared with its hedging program to survive and thrive (IMHO).
Your highly informative post based on your detailed research is much appreciated. I suppose I don't need to read any government or industry projections. You have the answer. That will save all of us so much time.
This stooge with extensive trading experience bought in yesterday. I won't discuss why because I won't reveal my secrets but then the stupid short posts never reveal any details either.
This stock is projected to lose $5 a share for 2015. No one will buy the stock because they would inherit the liabilities. It is gambling with low odds.
I think we both know you are full of it. You are short and will say anything to drive down the price. You may even be a professional at what you do. I will be a buyer well before UPL goes anywhere near $5. I will concede however there is still some downside left . Particularly because of the lack of a reasonable hedging program. Next year things will turn around. Natural gas will not disappear as a needed commodity.
But diesel is still expensive and the trucking industry is where CLNE is focusing first. If you look at the estimates for CLNE they have barely budged as the stock has plummeted. Bought more today. I expect to buy more if we revisit the $4 range.
The reason this stock is holding up is that someting is about to happen and many know it. They should because management already announced it. Management is doing exactly what it must to survive and thrive. I trust them.
But do not despair. The attack on UPL should be over in the not too distant future. If I owned a large position I would hold. I plan to buy in the $13 or $12 range. I have seen an attack similar to this one once before but this is a three pronged attack with low energy prices as a backdrop. This is why we may yet see insane prices for UPL. Even $11 is a possibility. Still the stock is worth much more and in time it will rise again. The biggest mistakes the company made were not hedging and buying an oil property. In 2015 Oil should come back to well over $70 a barrel and NG over $3.80. The oil property will become profitable the profit on NG will improve.
All XXCO needs to do is tread water until LNG starts to get exported. I am fine with 1 cent. Many companies are losing money presently.
The haynesville property located next to LNG is one reason. The expected increase in NG pricing is another. Top tier invested shareholders helping provide both direction and deals is another. One more is that oil, even though not the biggest part of XCO, should rebound to $85+ sometime next year. The truth is that no one knows anything for sure and each of us needs to do our own due diligence but this is my assesment. Remember LNG output will rise significantly over the next few years to meet the expected LNG demand.
I unfortunatley agree with you on this one however any long term holders will make money even with a purchase cost well in excess of $20. The current attack is just too strong.