I find it interesting how panic selling works. Everyone agrees that oil will go up materially from here, but investors are selling like crazy because the price of the stock went down today. My cost basis is a bit above yours but I have no plans to sell for quite some time. I would not consider selling while oil is under $55 unless I planned to trade the stock. Oil doesn't stabilize. It is going up or it is going down. It will soon be on its way to $60+ . I would sell based on the price of oil, not the price of the stock. Just my 2 cents..
I appreciate your kind words. Sometimes I second guess myself, but I did buy more shares today. Not a large amount as I cannot allocate too much more money to this one investment, but to not add any at these prices is criminal (IMHO).
I know my posts look foolish here because my long position was established too early, but I understand that traders need to react quickly and whatever is around the curve is less relevent to them. One must be careful with a longer term outlook because mistakes can be more costly when you back them up by digging in your heels. I also can't claim to never make mistakes. But I believe what I have posted to be true, regardless of how things look today. Time will vindicate me or expose me to be incompetent. We will see.
Yowza! I would like to get back in and make back some of the money I lost here, but wait, isn't that how gamblers talk? The truth is the current situation is precarious which doesn't make for the best investment environment. I wish management communicated better. Then I would have a clue whether UPL at under $1 is worth the risk. But I know very little. I suppose management knows very little too, which would explain some of their recent management decisions.
Stop Stop! You are both right. The risk is too high for me with UPL but how many banks want to run an energy company? If NG prices go up to $2.80 later in the year this goose may not be cooked. Still, for now, there are better options out there (IMHO).
Note if we can stay below $30 for the rest of the month of February, which is possible, then even $55 oil by year end is possible. This estimate does not include a likely production cut by the Saudi's, Russians and others. If there is a cut, and there are good odds that there will be, then $60+ oil shoild happen this year. That would make EPE an $8+ stock by this December, using conservative estimates.
Based on the fact that we have been in the $20 range for an adequate period, I now think we will hit $50 oil later this year. $50 oil puts EPE at $6+ this year using a conservative estimate (IMHO).
If we can get oil under $24, which is highly unlikely, EPE may be a $5 stock even sooner than I thought. So think, low oil prices! Come on, Iran is pumping like crazy! The Saudi's won't let up! Go Go $24 oil! No wait, I have heard under $20 oil from a few lunatics. So maybe they are right and I am completely wrong. Can it be, under $20 oil? Let's hope so...
Not sure how relevent a CHK bankrupcy is to UPL. Yes one less big player means less drillers and less drilling but It may already be too late for UPL regardless of other companies. UPL needs 2 things to happen. One, an increase in NG prices and two, a very lenient creditor situation. Both are still possible, though I would not put money on it at this time.
Too funny to not respond. LOL! You do realize that domestic production is declining, in spite of your misinformation. We are down to 9.2 mbd from 9.6 mbd and we are continuing to decline. Even the most bearish oil analyst has oil significantly up from here. I did do one this different than last time when we went into the 2 range. I increased my position.
When both WLL and OAS announced their earnings release date and conference call the stocks went down. I suspect the opposite result when EPE makes their announcement. EPE is making money!
Your group was overdue for some negative posts. No facts. Some lies. The hedges won't roll off until the second quarter of 2017. Until then we are cash flow positive. No guarantees but we will be among the last companies standing. You know the odds of still having $30 oil by then are remote.
Low 2's I tend to doubt with the earnings coming out at the end of the month, though one never knows anything for sure..My thoughts are that we will be in the mid $3 range or higher before the earnings and trade in the high $3 to $4 range after. Now if oil moves back up to the mid 30's based on market conditions by March $4.50 plus looks realistic to me. But in all fairness short term predictions usually aren't worth much..