I'm sure all investors on this board are very appreciative that the "JB Report" has done a thorough job of enlightening all of us recently about FCX stock and its leadership. However after almost 40 years of investing in metals stocks there is one phenomenon that has seemed consistent on earnings days and the weeks thereafter. That is FCX, former Phelps Dodge, and most other mining companies will beat analysts estimates over 90% of the time.......but also go down pps on earnings day about 90% of the time. I can remember a record earnings day event of about 4 years ago and the stock pps still declined that day about -3%. I can also remember an earnings day with less bad news than this last Tuesday, and the stock declined -13% that earnings day! Analysts will always say it is not what you did for me yesterday but what are you going to do for me the next quarter or two. After the last two green days following Tuesday's mixed earnings report it seems that FCX is acting very predictably..........and if that continues it means the run up is "predictably" in progress. The bad news has been communicated and with the significant decline in share price over the last few months it seems like we should have seen the bottom. With the overall stock market at record highs it also seems a safer place to establish a new holding (at a FCX bottom) rather than alternative stocks that have already realized huge run ups. Other thoughts???
Our government (including both parties) is responsible for the economic crash 7+ years ago. The banks made mistakes also, but were not the root cause for the crash as our government policies (that were purposely eased) were. But for the existing administration to continue to blame and extort money from the banking industry that affects everybody is just not right. It negatively affects everybody. Our country cannot fully recover until our banking industry recovers. It looks like it will take a new set of politicians for the US to ever hope for true recovery. In the meantime extortion of $$$ from our banks by the current administration needs to stop immediately!!!
Ackerson just stated on the conference call they are not considering a cut in the dividend
With energy costs ranging between 20-30% of overall mining costs this latest drop in oil prices has to be a big upside impact on their operating costs. Lets see if they comment on this tomorrow in their guidance comments during the earnings call.
I already answered your question last week in detail so refer back if you will......expecting a surprise earnings day for many reasons already explained
The conservative number was derived from brownfield (internal) expansions coming on line this past quarter at two properties and future expansions that will unfold in the next 5 quarters. Indonesia, which was shut down for almost 3 quarters, has also come back on line and will have a positive revenue increase for earnings day in a few weeks. Additionally the oil acquisitions offer upside potential if they materialize as expected. Lots of upside potential unfolding as we speak. Always room for disappointing news but more will definitely be positive than negative. Revenue increase could possibly surprise to +$8 per share as they are always conservative in estimates and FCX usually beats expectations (except this last year with Indonesia shut down, which is behind them for the most part).
Can't believe I'm acknowledging this but I'm starting to miss the morning "JB Report" comic strip!
On a more serious note seems like the pre-earnings run up is unfolding as expected. This earnings report should have more "ah has" then any previous one I can remember. Hopefully they are mostly positive and propel this stock past $40 pps. Then the next hope will be positive macro or global news which would propel the next leg up to +$70. Both barrels of this shotgun are now loaded!!!!
Yes looks to me the very typical pre-earnings run up has started. Now the question is how much of a surprise will earnings day be which will determine how much the upward trend will continue. I'm expecting a positive surprise and a continuing positive upward trend. Hey........where is the "JB Report" today????
JB hopefully you covered your short by now.....or are you on the way to the store to buy a new pair of shorts? This should have been the bottom and now time for the longs!
Hey JB it has already "languished" for three years plus now. If it continues another 12-18 months as you say this cyclical stock will undoubtedly be bought out by another company.........at +$70 pps or greater!
The "jbonanno32 hourly report" will be discontinued and going out of business as of the next FCX earnings report, scheduled to be held within the next 10 days. At that time hopefully this board will attract constructive input by all investors (like former years). Earnings day cannot come soon enough for me and I am as excited as ever!
Glencore or Rio making a move on FCX makes perfect sense to answer Reddog's question and would be an accretive acquisition for either to make. This news has to have shorty JoeBonanno/Otto running to cover their shorts this morning. If they haven't already covered they will soon be running to the store to buy new shorts.... and to change into something more comfortable with less smelly shorts!! As I previously predicted, this stock will bottom and start its new trend up about a week before the earnings conference call........which come to think about it .........is right about now!!!
Go to Kitco charts and take a look at the 5-year LME inventory level. We are now at a 5 -year low and more historically speaking at extremely low inventory levels. The shortage is already here and could become even more significant if all the global noise dissipates soon!!!
LME inventory level at 5-year lows and transaction volume for FCX increasing daily........good fundamentals flagging the turnaround is coming soon. Looks like investors are recognizing these encouraging signs also.
FCX volume on Friday 50% above the norm. Could it be the start of the expected pre-earnings run up ???? Next week will tell the story.
If you are a proponent of the buy low....... sell high philosophy, this stock will soon qualify as one of the greatest upside potential stocks to invest in the entire market. As a cyclical, this +$60 stock from three years ago has to be near the bottom. Current low inventories will soon have a positive impact on the supply/demand pricing. An earnings surprise within three weeks is all that is needed to start the inevitable run up. Additionally, FCX has added significant assets since the +$60 pps by purchasing/diversification into oil and also expanding many of their own mining sites internally. That means good times pps will far exceed the former $60 pps value and now just a matter of time to earn your double or more. If world turmoil causes the stock market to crash like some predict I want to own companies like FCX with real assets rather than other alternative companies with "virtual potential earnings". Do the math.
What many people seem to be unaware of Reddog is the expansions of mining operations that came on line this quarter (to offset lower metals prices). Also with so many operating sites FCX has significant flexibility to "throttle" production needs. I'm expecting a positive surprise earnings day this time due to these factors, and will not be surprised to see pps start its climb two weeks prior to earnings or so. Great buying opportunity now for those not yet into to this cash machine.