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nelsonjedi1958 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 19, 2016 6:02 PM Member since: Dec 13, 2013
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  • Going forward we see that with every new bad economic data on t US economy the dollar drops....see housing today,,,,with that we are seeing a spike in commodity prices which may lead to higher consumer prices rather quickly..(the bad part is the price rise is nota function of demand, but of the Fed)..thus if it I not a function of demand do you think demand will increase as prices do???? The ONLY thing that will not be inflated is wages...Also less demand..fewer jobs.....So now everyone the new catch word for 2016 will be STAGFLATION....all because the Fed is either scared or has not a clue out to get out of this mess.... The Central Banks would do well to leave everything alone and allow prices to reset themselves before this gets really out of hand....Aren't they all economists???? ECO 101 works..try it....

  • nelsonjedi1958 by nelsonjedi1958 Apr 19, 2016 5:20 PM Flag

    German Zweg Index plungers....Dax rises 200 points. OPEC and Non-Opec cannot agree on a simple freeze....oil rallies...Banks profits drop 40 to 50 % Y 0ver Y....banks rally....Housing starts plunge with no "it's the weather excuse" U.S market rises....Companies continue to miss revenue numbers (that were lowered) ad barely beat estimates (again the GAAP / Non- GAAP ) trick...stocks rise....Guidance going forward little changed if at all...layoffs galore (see Intel and Norstrom) as this will be he new way to improve the bottom line.....and finally we will have negative GDP in the first quarter ad probably not much better in the 2nd ..and we near all time highs in the market.....

  • The job reports will only serve to strengthen the dollar...plus there is no oil deal and I believe I read the Saudis are reopening an old field and Libya has reopened 3 port facilities and as usual no one can get together on a deal.....so oil will begin to drop again...So as I have said nothing has changed from January except the data has been worse...GDP forecast down to .06%

  • Never got to down although Russell visited it briefly. Last thought of the day..the volume speaks volume about conviction...Remember this if there is no volume on the w up...their will be no buyers on the way down...the drop could be perilous....But as we see the bulls continue to push the market up..my guess there afariad if it drops the gig is up....Yellen 1 Fundamentals 0....

  • nelsonjedi1958 by nelsonjedi1958 Mar 30, 2016 2:00 PM Flag

    Maybe we won't be down a hundred but still think we are down at days end...nothing but bots and algros trading now trying to keep indexes up...IMO

  • nelsonjedi1958 by nelsonjedi1958 Mar 30, 2016 9:25 AM Flag

    I suggest we may be down 100 by days end....IMO

  • nelsonjedi1958 by nelsonjedi1958 Mar 30, 2016 9:18 AM Flag

    Yellen said the world economy is not well...yet this morning all the averages are up. Think of the negative impact if (as we have seen) inflation continues to rise based on the FED mandate, but the economy continues to slump. Artificially trying to inflate prices NEVER works. Supply and demand works. If you keep trying to raise prices then supply will continue to grow and demand will continue to drop. Thus higher prices for a slumping economy.

  • nelsonjedi1958 by nelsonjedi1958 Mar 30, 2016 8:06 AM Flag

    If we end up down today....

  • Reply to

    There will be no rate hikes (Ever!!!)

    by imbedazzled Mar 29, 2016 3:20 PM
    nelsonjedi1958 nelsonjedi1958 Mar 29, 2016 11:01 PM Flag

    Who knows what the price of anything is....The Fed has created an artificial economy...

  • nelsonjedi1958 by nelsonjedi1958 Mar 29, 2016 10:58 PM Flag

    Does anybody get the feeling Janet Yellen has not a clue of what she is doing or what to do??? Seems to be some decent in the Fed. Targets were met but she won't pull the trigger....might be to late when she does...

  • nelsonjedi1958 by nelsonjedi1958 Mar 29, 2016 10:54 PM Flag

    Please list what you see as the bullish argument for ATH...

  • Didn't I hear her say the global economy is slowing....yet all the market cares about is when rates will rise...
    Why is the dollar dropping???? We do not have negative interest rates (Europe and Japan do)
    Almost all the economic data released over the past two months point to things being worse, not better..
    Corporate profits are dropping(along with revenue) GAAP P/E is running at 23+
    Atlanta Fed pins 1st quarter GDP at .06 %.........
    Yet we have people looking for ATH in the averages......
    All because of a frightened gray haired lady who's scared to do anything....

  • nelsonjedi1958 by nelsonjedi1958 Mar 24, 2016 9:04 AM Flag

    One commodities continue to tank..this should be alarming for the markets.

    Second..maybe the reason that unemployment claims remain low is that people have run out of benefits....

    Third...employment numbers are ALWAYS a lagging indicator of the economy....while

    Four...Durable Goods depict the present and commodity prices foretell the future....

  • nelsonjedi1958 by nelsonjedi1958 Mar 23, 2016 2:46 PM Flag

    The Russell..led on the way up...

  • nelsonjedi1958 by nelsonjedi1958 Mar 23, 2016 10:05 AM Flag

    Commodity prices are tanking....

  • nelsonjedi1958 nelsonjedi1958 Mar 16, 2016 10:05 PM Flag

    GAAP EPS is around 85 a share....

  • Reply to

    Really...#2

    by nelsonjedi1958 Mar 16, 2016 9:36 PM
    nelsonjedi1958 nelsonjedi1958 Mar 16, 2016 10:03 PM Flag

    Please detail improvements.....manufacturing....down 5 months in a row.....housing....single family still down compared to pre Lehman....building a lot of apartments....employment...part time and service...no wage inflation....do not believe the ramp in oil since we have more oil in storage than a month ago....seasonal factors as oil always rises into driving season...we shall see

  • nelsonjedi1958 by nelsonjedi1958 Mar 16, 2016 9:36 PM Flag

    What has changed over the past two months...actually the data has been weak to weaker....the only change has been the central banks...negative rates....fewer rate cuts...at some point someone will realize the Central Banks haven't a clue..and the party will end.
    Fundamentals tell you to look at revenue growth (down sharply) and earnings(also down and on very sharply if you look at GAAP earnings and not that accounting tricks played with Non GAAP). If you think earnings were bad in the 4th quarter of last year...you ain't seen nothing yet....Market fair value is around 170 to 1750.
    Last but not least..WERE S THE VOLUME?????? Be careful out there this could turn quickly..

  • nelsonjedi1958 by nelsonjedi1958 Mar 11, 2016 8:36 AM Flag

    1) How can what Draghi did be positive for US companies...it isn't..stronger dollar.
    2) What's the deal with oil??? We have more oil than when it was $29.00 a barrel...not sustainable
    3) Has everyone forgotten that the majority of corporate forecast for the first quarter were negative in nature...apparently so.
    4) Negative rates are NOT a good thing.....Central banks buying stock (BOJ) or corporate bonds (ECB) are a really bad thing...really bad.
    5) What if we get inflation yet the economy muddles along....really..really bad thing.

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