" stocks can drop after a disappointing earnings announcement or conference call."
Yes, and after that drop they can even more easily go back up to higher than pre-announcement low. So what? All the action in between is just short-term traders spinning a roulette wheel.
"Such drops are often biggest when foolish investors expect too much"
Like NFLX -30% but not Amazon I guess only a fraction of that.
"above any reasonable valuation."
How would anyone like you who thought $50 was possible in 1Q know how to value this stock?
" just NOT for the retail INVESTOR"
For long-term investors, huge gains. You don't know what you are talking about.
could be $4billion profit year after next year
very likely lousy track record from shorts for predicting anything.
No, not if you made a profit from more mature parts of the business but had other younger parts that operated more like startups.
"sell a significant chunk of their shares to retail investors and index funds at the top"
unless the top is actually going to be $1000 or $2000 in which they failed miserably.
but long-term if the stock goes up $120 he makes many more $billions, right?
"UPS can't afford to pay all of their drivers triple time on that day"
According to short clowns guidance is lying and sales will be very small so hardly any drivers will be needed then. Every one will be shopping at malls or Alibaba or small online retailers.
"As an investor, you need to watch their investment initiatives"
yawn...as a short you need to watch your margin calls.
What? Oh you must mean getting in bed with a corrupt commie govt. to curry favor. Nah, Bezos is too much the capitalist to do that.
Shorts sound disappointed. NFLX down 30% Amazon by only a fraction of that, as short-term weak hands bail. Bezos was rated Top CEO of the year by HBR last week. They might know a little than some Amazon short who used to tout WMT.
When do you expect economy to slow? Last time it slowed Amazon growth accelerated as shoppers stayed home and saved money on Amazon.
War is good in a capitalist society such as ours. Amazon owns the pipeline so they have the leverage to demand a bigger share of supplier's revenues. How can Amazon really be at war with most writers? Writers get a much bigger slice of the pie under Amazon's terms.
"Because the model they are building out is too top heavy, warehouses, inventory depreciation and write offs, taxes."
Warehouses simply anticipate much higher levels of growth. You only think it is heavy because you are able to forecast growth and have no idea what their future infrastructure requirements are likely to be. Inventory is heavy? I disagree. It is way, way lighter than other direct retailers like Walmart.
"Not everybody will pay extra to have it today, I won't most times."
That's why Amazon offers different ways to buy for different customer sets. Prime customers think paying more is a worthwhile convenience.
"They are going to be competing with other brick and mortar if you believe the excuse for all the building valid. I think it's an excuse."
They have been from Day One and have been stealing growth from brick and mortar and squeezing competitor's margins. Problem for rivals is that brick and mortar is a much higher cost structure so brick and mortar companies continue to lose ground. Please name one brick and mortar that does not continue to lose plenty of ground to Amazon every year.